АКТУАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ РАЗВИТИЯ РЫНКА ГОСОБЛИГАЦИЙ РА: ДИАГНОСТИКА И ОСНОВНЫЕ ОРИЕНТИРЫ Текст научной статьи по специальности «Экономика и бизнес»

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JEL: H63, H68

DOI: 10.52174/1829-0280_2022.1-33

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2 Sb'u Eichengreen B., Hausmann R., Exchange rates and financial fragility (No. w7418). National bureau of economic research, 1999, t2 11-15:

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3 Sb'u International Monetary Fund and World Bank, Staff Note for The G20 IFAWG Development of Local Currency Bond Markets Overview of Recent Developments and Key Themes SEOUL, KOREA, JUNE 20, 2016, t2 5:

4 Sb'u G20 Action Plan to Support the Development of Local Currency Bond Markets as endorsed by G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors. October 15, 2011, t2 1-15:

5 Sb'u Eichengreen B., Hausmann R., Panizza U., The pain of original sin. Other people's money: Debt denomination and financial instability in emerging market economies, 2003, t2 25-26:

6 Sb'u Burger J. D., Warnock F. E., Local currency bond markets. IMF Staff papers, 53(1), 2006, t2 144:

7 Sb'u Forslund K., Lima L., Panizza U., The determinants of the composition of public debt in developing and emerging market countries. Review of Development Finance, 1(3-4), 2011, t2 222:

8 Sb'u Bordo M. D., Meissner C., Redish A., How "Original Sin" was Overcome: The Evolution of External Debt Denominated in Domestic Currencies in the United States and the British Dominions (No. w9841). National Bureau of Economic Research, 2003, t2 5:

9 Sb'u Eichengreen B. J., Hausmann R., Panizza U., Original sin: the pain, the mystery, and the road to redemption, 2002, t2 2-4:

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10 Sb'u Cyn-Young Park, Developing Local Currency Bond Markets in Asia, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 53:12, 2826-2844, DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2017.1321539, 2017, t2 2827-2840:

11 Sb'u Burger J. D., Warnock F. E., Foreign participation in local currency bond markets. Review of Financial Economics, 16(3), 2007, t2 303:

12 Sb'u Jonasson T., Papaioannou M. M. G., A primer on managing sovereign debt-portfolio risks. International Monetary Fund, 2018, t2 101-111:

13 Sb'u IMF, World Bank, EBRD, and OECD, Local currency bond markets: A diagnostic framework. Washington, DC: IMF, 2013, t2 1-39:

14 Sb'u IMF, Guidance Note for Developing Government Local Currency Bond Markets, 2021, t2 19-20:

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18 SЬ'u ä>hhnhunl|nh l|шqJшl|ЬpщnLpJnLhhЬph ^l^nlinqpnLpjnLh (https://www.cba.am/am /SitePages/statfinorg.aspx) U Uprnnghh Иштфш0|п 4hбш|шqpnLpJnLh (https://www.cba.am/am /SitePages/statexternalsector.aspx):

19 S^u и^шрЬ^|шЬ t., ^шpш^ЬmJшЬ Ъ., hh^n'L Ьh hшJшumшhJшh pшh|ЬpQ ш4Ь[шдpЬ[ щЬтш-|шh ^шpmшmnJuЬpnLJ hЬpтpnLJhЬpQ. фшumЬp pi^hl^ph Jш|шpтш|n4 qhшhшmnLJhЬphg, «PшhpЬp C^SC», N4, 2021, t2 29-48:

20 S^u CC ^Ьmшlшh ^шpmßQ, Cш24Ьs4nLpJnLh, 2GGG, CC фhhшhuhЬph hш^шpшpnLpJnLh, https://minfin.am/website/images/files/2GGG_hashvetvutyun_tarekan.pdf

21 S^u CC ^Ьmшlшh ^шpmßQ, Cш2фsф-|LpJnLh, 2004, CC фhhшhuhЬph hш^шpшpnLpJnLh, https://minfin.am/website/images/files/2GG4_hashvetvutyun_tarekan.pdf

22 CC 4шnшфшpnLpJшh ^шpmßh l|шnшфшpJшh 2G18-2G2G pp. nшqJш4шpшlшh ôpшqhp, CC фhhшhuhЬph hш^шpшpnLpJnLh, https://minfin.am/website/images/files/9de827fb.doc

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« щЬsш|шh цшpsшsnduЬph sЬqшpш2^nLd^Ьph d■шdшhш| n^hg h|шsdшdp ÔUw^np^ô щшhшh2шp|D, dh2h^ hш24n4, 2nLp2 2.1 шhqшd qЬpшqшhgЬL t sЬrçшpш2^dшh gnLgш^h2D: npnLd, hшpшpЬpш-

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Я-¿шщшm^Ьp 1. « iqbipiu^iub qiubâiu-iqbipiu^iub imupipiuipndubpfi ipb-llшpш2fanldbbpß, 2Q12-2Q21, ipiu-pb^iub qmdiupiujfib ôiu^u[bbp

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2000.0 4.0

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ОДшщшт^Ьр 3. 2G1S-2G21 pp. qiubâiuiqbipiutyiub iqiupipiuipndubpfi ipbqiupiu2fanidbbpfi pbq.hiubmp lupqjmbfbbpp

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ОДшщшт^Ьр 4. « iqbipiu^iub qiubâiuiqbipiu^iub mupipiuipndubpfi iu6mpq.bbpfi diudiubiuty âLiutfnptfiuô imuhiub2iupty/ipbqiupiu2fanid qnpôiu^figbbpp 2G1S-2G21 ptfiu^iubbbpfib

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ЬpЬ тhmшpl4nт dшJшhшlшhшm4шöh ulqpnLJ (2010-2011 pp.) Ьpl-pnpтшJhh 2nLlшJh 2P2шhшnnLpJшh öш4шLhЬpnLJ qЬpшl2nЬL Ьh Jh2hшdшJ-1ЬШ щшpmшmnJuЬpQ, шщш hш2npтnт mшphhЬphh шpтЬh' ЬplшpшdшJ-1Ьш щшpmшmnJuЬpQ, npnhg l2hQQ 2шpnLhшlшpшp шбЬL t' JnmЬhшLn4 шJ-pn|2 2P2шhшnnLpJшh öш4шLhЬph 80%-hh: Ch| npnLJ, qöшщшmlЬp 6-hg тЬ-uшhЬLh t, np шJuшlшh lrnpHpn^ 2nLlшJh 2P2шhшnnLpJшh öш4шLhЬpQ ^hum mшmшhnтшlшh Ьh: Uju^u' 2P2шhшnnLpJшh öш4шLh 4шphшghшJh qnpöшlhgQ lrnqJ^ t 70.6%, Qh| npnLJ, lшpбшdшJlЬm щшpmшmnJuЬph ^^mJ' 2nLp2 92%, hul ЬplшpшdшJlЬm щшpmшmnJuЬph тЬчgnLJ' 2nLp2 102%, Jh^^n Jh2hшdшJlЬm щшpmшmnJuЬph шnUmph öш4шLhЬpQ dшJш-

hmlh dbj hmdbdmmmpmp m[b|h Imjrnh bh bqb[, U [wphmghmjh qnp&mlhgp Imqtfbi t 58%:

5,000.0 — 20.0

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24 Sb'u IMF. Guidance Note for Developing Government Local Currency Bond Markets, 2021, tj 40:

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26 Sb'u IMF. Guidance Note for Developing Government Local Currency Bond Markets, 2021, tj 45:

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32 Sb'u Velandia A., Secunho L., How to Attract Non-Resident Investors to Local Currency Bonds. WorldBank, 2021, t2 15-19:

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1. « Hwnwi^wpnLpjwti n|wpmg|i Iwnwi^wpdwti 2018-2020 pp. nwqdwi^wpwlwti 6pwq.|ip, « $|itiwtiutibp|i tiw^iwpwpnLpjnLti, https://minfin.am/website/images/files/9de827fb.doc

2. « Ibtimpntiwlwti pwtil, 2015, 'Tlbmwlwti n|wpmwmndubp|i |itiq.bgutibp, https://www.cba.am/am/sitepages/fmoregultion.aspx

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https://minfin.am/website/images/files/2000_hashvetvutyun_tarekan. pdf

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https://minfin.am/website/images/files/2004_hashvetvutyun_tarekan. pdf

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НАРЕК КАРАПЕТЯН

Аспирант кафедры финансов АГЭУ

Актуальные проблемы развития рынка гособлигаций РА: диагностика и основные ориентиры.- Правительство РА нацелено на увеличение доли внутреннего долга в структуре государственного долга, что предполагает дальнейшее углубление рынка государственных облигаций. Чтобы раскрыть его возможности и наметить пути совершенствования политики управления долгом в этом направлении, в данной статье диагностировано развитие рынка государственных облигаций РА. В частности, были применены количественные пороги, разработанные МВФ, факторы, влияющие на развитие первичных и вторичных рынков, были оценены с помощью эконометрических моделей, были рассмотрены предпосылки участия иностранных инвесторов на местном рынке. В статье сделан вывод о том, что первичный рынок достиг значительного уровня развития, тогда как вторичный рынок развит слабо, что можно объяснить низким уровнем развития небанковского финансового сектора и низким участием иностранных инвесторов. В результате исследования автор выступает с предложением придавать большее значение инициативам по привлечению иностранных инвесторов на долговой рынок, что может привести к повышению ликвидности вторичного рынка и обеспечить положительный цикл развития рынка.

Ключевые слова: внутренний государственный долг, первичный рынок, эконометрическая модель, вторичный рынок, база инвесторов, рыночная доходность. JEL: H63, H68

DOI: 10.52174/1829-0280_2022.1-33

NAREK KARAPETYAN

PhD Student of the Chair of Finance of ASUE

Issues of RA Government Bond Market Development: Diagnostics and the Key Benchmarks.- The RA Government targets increasing the share of domestic debt in the structure of public debt, which implies further deepening of the government bond market. To reveal its possibilities and outline the ways of improving debt management policy towards this aim, in this paper RA government bond market development has been diagnosed. Particularly, quantitative thresholds designed by the IMF were applied, the factors affecting the development of primary and secondary markets were estimated with econometric models, and prerequisites of participation of

foreign investors in the local market were discussed. The research concludes that the primary market has reached a significant level of development, whereas the secondary market is weakly developed, which can be attributed to the low level of development of the non-bank financial sector and low participation by foreign investors. As a result of the research, the author offers to attach much importance to initiatives towards involving foreign investors into the debt market, which may result in higher liquidity of the secondary market and ensure a positive cycle of market development.

Keywords: domestic public debt, primary market, econometric model, secondary market, investor base, market returns. JEL: H63, H68

DOI: 10.52174/1829-0280_2022.1-33