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REGIONAL ECONOMY
ADAPTING REGIONAL STRATEGIES TO THE NEW NON-RESOURCE EXPORT DEVELOPMENT TARGET
P. L. Glukhikh
Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences 29 Moskovskaya St., Yekaterinburg, 620014, Russia
Received 30.04.2021
doi: 10.5922/2079-8555-2022-1-3
© Glukhikh, R L., 2022
In the radically new economic conditions of2020, the Government of the Russian Federation selected supporting non-resource and non-energy exports as one of the four factors of sustainable economic growth. Achieving this target is a challenge, but the absence of sufficient conditions for a systemic diversification of Russian exports also poses a substantial problem. This situation lends urgency to developing a methodology for the normative institutional reflection of non-resource non-energy targets in regional legislative acts. This article aims to improve the methods for embedding non-resource non-energy export targets in regional strategies (the targets are expected to serve as an institutional factor prompting economic diversification). This research is exploratory; methodologically, it stands out for using qualitative and quantitative content analysis with elements of computer-assisted frequency analysis of legislative acts and regulations. The study classifies, for the first time, the non-resource non-energy export targets, contributing to the regional export strategy theory. Analysis of strategies for socio-economic development confirmed the hypothesis that, in some north-western Russian regions, the priorities and targets of non-resource non-energy exports are at odds with federal law. The practical implication of this study is recommendations on adapting strategies for regional socio-economic development to the updated non-resource non-energy export targets.
Keywords:
export promotion, regional export programme, resource dependence, diversification, text analysis, content analysis
Introduction
The dependence of the Russian economy on raw materials has been a topical issue in economic theory and practice for decades. The urgency of this problem increased after the update of the national development goals in the summer of 2020. The strategy of sustainable GDP growth at a rate above the global average has become the central idea of Russia's revised economic policy. According
To cite this article: Glukhikh, R L. 2022, Adapting regional strategies to the new non-resource export development target, Balt. Reg., Vol. 14, no. 1. p. 34-55. doi: 10.5922/2079-8555-2022-1-3.
BALTIC REGION ► 2022 ► Vol.14 ► №1
to First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Andrei Belousov, the entire architecture of the updated policy is designed "to take advantage of the factors where there are significant resources for acceleration"1. The rationale for this approach, in his words, is a "thorough assessment of the contribution" of the following factors to economic growth:
— expediting investment;
— development of small and medium-sized businesses;
— support for non-resource exports;
— increasing labour productivity.
Without diminishing the importance of other factors, in this study we will focus only on the foreign economic factor. According to the published estimates, "an increase in non-resource non-energy exports" gives about 0.4 % of "additional annual GDP growth". So, this factor is 1 % less than the first two factors (investments and small and medium-sized businesses), and it is by the same percentage more effective than the growth of productivity. The result expected from the implementation of the policy exceeds the expert assessment of researchers from the Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Academician Boris Porfiriev wrote that "the implementation of the entire set of measures within the national projects will accelerate the average annual GDP growth rate in 2020—2024 by no more than 0.6 %" [1, p. 4]. Researchers believe that the favourable impact of national projects on Russia's economic development should not be exaggerated since, over the past decade, the average annual economic growth rate has been less than 0.9 %.
Despite some controversy, additional evidence of the importance of exports has been provided by the Bank of Russia. It provided data on the growth of economic activity during the first two months of 2021, which showed "an active recovery of export and intermediate consumption industries"2. This recovery was due to a slower rise in export indicators in the second half of 2020 to the pre-Cov-id value whereas imports recovered much faster3. This presents a separate problem for the development of export in the current situation.
According to the target indicator approved in 2020 in the July Decree of the President of Russia, "by 2030, real growth in exports of non-resource and non-energy goods is to be at least 70 % compared with 2020. Interestingly, the indicator is expressed not in value terms, as in the Decree of 2018, but in relative terms. According to the Russian Export Center (REC), this target indicator amounted
1 Joint Meeting of the State Council and the Council for Strategic Development and National Projects, 2020, Kremlin.ru, available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/ news/64736 (accessed 26.02.2021).
2 What the trends say. Macroeconomics and Markets. Bulletin of the Research and Forecasting Department, 2021, Bank of Russia. March 2021, available at: https://cbr.ru/Col-lection/Collection/File/32077/bulletin_21-02.pdf (accessed 03.10.2021).
3 Less oil, more fabrics, 2021, Kommersant, No. 22 of 02.09.2021, available at: https:// www-kommersant-ru.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.kommersant.ru/amp/4682353 (accessed 02.06.2021).
to 161.3 billion US dollars4 in 2020. This means that by 2030 will be 272 billion US dollars excluding inflation. Based on the new calculation method which excludes gold from non-resource and non-energy goods5, the value of this indicator will be 242.7 billion US dollars. The new values differ significantly from those previously approved (Fig. 1).
Fig. 1. The volume of exports of non-resource and non-energy goods of the Russian Federation, billion USD
Source: calculated and compiled by the author based on REC data: http://regionstat. exportcenter.ru/regions/list/; Guarantor: https://base.garant.ru/71937200/; https://www. garant.ru/products/ipo/prime/doc/74304210/.
The initial growth rate set by the Russian government was more ambitious. According to the May Decree adopted earlier (in 2018), by 2024 the Russian Federation was to ensure exports of non-energy commodities in the amount of 250 billion US dollars. According to the Decree of 2020, the period for achieving this target was prolonged by six years (until 2030) and the target indicator was decreased from 250 to 242.7 billion US dollars. If this value had not been revised, then by the end of 2020 the planned target of 167 billion US dollars would not have been achieved.
Despite some success, no sustainable growth in non-energy export has been observed. An additional artificial barrier to export demand may be government restrictions on external supplies introduced to control domestic prices for the most important goods. Therefore, the problem of both achieving the target indica-
4 The volume of exports of non-resource and non-energy goods, 2021, EMISS, available at: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/59177 (accessed 03.23.2021).
5 Non-resource exports showed conditional growth, 2021, Kommersant, No. 29 of 02.18.2021, available at: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4694226?utm_source=-vk&utm_medium=social_vlst_money&utm_campaign=nesyrievoy-neenergetiches-kiy-eksport-rf-v (accessed 02.19.2021).
tor for the development of non-resource and non-energy exports and the problem of insufficient systemic diversification of Russian exports have become relevant for economic theory and practice.
Russian regions contribute to export diversification and achieving the new target in different ways. Since comparison in value terms (monetary values) does not take into account the territorial differences and economic potential, for a more objective assessment of regions, we compare the share of the federal district (FD) in non-resource and non-energy exports with its share in the total exports of the Russian Federation (Fig. 2).
Fig. 2. Excess of the share of the federal district in non-resource and non-energy exports of the Russian Federation over the share of this federal district in the total exports of the Russian Federation in 2020, %
Source: сalculated and compiled by the author based on REC data http://regionstat. exportcenter.ru/structure/dynamics.
Comment: * Excluding the Nenets Autonomous Okrug (no data).
As it can be seen from the data, there is high differentiation between the federal districts and regions in terms of their share of non-resource and non-energy export. Taking into account the overall export opportunities, the largest relative contribution to export diversification was made by the regions of the Southern Federal District and the Volga Federal District. The 8.8 % share of Southern Federal District regions in Russia's export of non-resource and non-energy commodities is significantly higher than their share in the total export (5.1 %). The share of the Volga Federal District regions is 12.1 % in non-energy versus 9.2 % in total export.
However, taking into account their smaller absolute share, regions of the Northwestern Federal District (NWFD) are of the greatest interest (second place after the Central Federal District with negative structural indicators: the total
share of 48.3 % exceeds the non-energy share of 41.3 %). At the same time, the regions of the NWFD showed a high relative contribution of 2.3 % (14.8 % in non-energy export against 12.6 % in the total export).
In addition, among all the subjects of the Russian Federation, a specific role in foreign economic activity is played by border regions of the country. Many of these regions are located in the NWFD. The proximity to European countries is also of importance, including their historical and cultural proximity [2—4]. Another problem is the low contribution of border regions to export indicators. In 2002, experts pointed out that "the border regions of the Russian Federation accounted for no more than 15 % of Russian exports" [5, p. 114]. It shows that border regions do not use their geographical advantage and save on transport costs within the country, and the cost of current exports becomes uncompetitive.
The article aims to perfect the methodology of setting targets for the development of non-resource non-energy exports for regional strategies as an institutional factor of economic diversification.
The objectives of this article are the following:
1) to systematize theoretical approaches to the importance of regional strategies being an institutional factor in the development of non-resource exports;
2) to develop a classification of target indicators of non-resource and non-energy export development in the strategies for socio-economic development of NWFD regions based on text analysis;
3) to substantiate practical recommendations for NWFD regional authorities on improving the definition of approved target indicators of non-resource and non-energy export development in the strategies for socio-economic development.
Without excluding other factors relevant for the development of regions' non-energy exports, including support mechanisms, and temporarily abstracting from them, a separate analysis of one of the institutional factors, approved target indicators, is required. For this reason, the object of the study is regional non-resource export strategies, described in the conceptual regulatory documents of Russian regions as an institutional factor in the management of foreign economic activity (FEA).
The novelty of this research lies in employing modern automated methods of analysis of the text of documents, which have not been used for the analysis of export and the solution to the scientific and practical problem of insufficient systematic diversification of export of the Russian regions. The study is primarily aimed at provide detailed content analysis of regulatory documents and regional target indicators being an important institutional factor of export development.
Theoretical approaches to regional strategies as an institutional factor in the development of non-mineral resource exports
The theoretical basis of the article is formed by the traditional approaches in the field of foreign economic activity, including the regional aspect (theories of regional export strategy), the provisions of institutional economics (the institutional significance of legal documents), the systematic approach, as well as related scientific provisions of foreign and domestic researchers who analyze various regional aspects of exports. The analysis of the current state of foreign and domestic research allows summarizing and highlighting the problems of research into the regional strategy for the development of non-resource exports as a system, with the impact of the regional regulation on it being its institutional factor.
Non-resource regional export strategy. A review of the literature showed that there are two unequal approaches to the development of foreign economic activity strategy. The least represented is the approach focused on strategies of foreign economic activity of business entities — exporters [6 — 8, p. 37; 9, p. 50; 10]. The other approach is based on the assessment of the role of state authorities, including regional ones. The generally recognized need for export diversification of production continues to be explored from various points of view [11 — 18, p. 6]. Many authors note the instability of Russian exporters' success and the unstable dynamics of non-resource and non-energy products due to the situation on the world market [19, p. 17]. Therefore, addressing the stability of export requires further search.
A number of studies were devoted to assessing the contribution of regions to export diversification. For example, Gulin et al. estimated the share of non-resource exports of regions in the total volume of exports of the Russian Federation. The authors concluded that regions are highly differentiated in terms of non-resource exports: 63 constituent entities of the Russian Federation (72.5 % of the total number) provided only 19.1 % of the country's non-resource exports at the end of 2016 [20, p. 64]. Therefore, it is very important to identify the regions that have significant export potential, which has not been unlocked yet.
Researchers, for example, Titova, note that "the main goal of any export support programme is diversification towards increasing the share of non-resource and non-energy goods" [21, p. 152]. Occasional attempts were made to analyze the presence of strategic elements in regulatory documents. Kovaleva et al. using the example of four regions (Bryansk, Pskov and Smolensk regions and Altai), assessed the indicators of the export environment, including "specific target indicators for the development of export activities in regional state development programmes" [22, p. 42]. However, this assessment was of a formal character (presence vs absence).
2. The role of the regional regulatory framework as an institutional factor of export development. There is a widespread position that the country's foreign trade complex includes a legislative component [23, p. 10; 18, p. 72]. Sometimes it is called the "legal structure of regulation" [8, p. 94—95]. Legal acts in foreign economic activity are an important institutional factor in the development of exports [24].
A series of studies led by Mingaleva substantiates the importance of the regulatory framework for developing regional foreign economic activity. In 2010, the researchers assessed the management of foreign economic activity in Russian regions and concluded that "the regional regulatory framework based on federal laws was not developed (or is poorly coordinated)" [25, p. 83]. It was also emphasized in the studies that for "effective interaction on the global stage" regions need to "develop a specific strategy for market behaviour" [26, p. 61]. Therefore, in the empirical part of the given study, the export strategies of the regions in the field of non-resource and non-energy exports will be evaluated.
Furthermore, the content-related analysis of socio-economic development programmes was carried out by Jeanne Mingaleva. At the beginning of the 2010s, it showed that "the subjects of the federation do not pay due attention to the formation and development of foreign economic activity" [26, p. 62]. The continued interest of researchers in identifying the role of regional regulatory programmes and export development strategies testifies to their importance. However, these studies did not separately assess non-resource and non-energy exports.
Of even greater interest is the "typology of Russian regions according to their foreign economic policy" proposed by Vardomsky et al., which includes more specialized factors, one of them being "the level of development of regional legislation in the foreign economic sphere" [5, p. 107 — 109]. The typology included four groups:
— regions having a solid regulatory framework for the development of foreign economy, including those surpassing the federal level in other indicators of foreign economic activity (according to the researchers, as of 2002, it included Tatarstan, Moscow, St. Petersburg, etc.);
— regions that are insufficiently successful in foreign economic activity, but have a relatively well-developed legal framework, including programmes for the development of exports and imports, stimulating the creation and development of export-oriented and import-substituting industries (Kaliningrad, Leningrad, Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Pskov regions, the Republic of Karelia and Komi, etc.);
— regions having a relatively weak regional legal framework (national standards are duplicated). However, regions of this group are successful in socio-economic development and have high export turnover, etc. (Tyumen region, Nenets Autonomous Area, Vologda , Irkutsk and Sverdlovsk regions);
— regions having a poorly developed legal framework regulating foreign economic activity, as well as low l export potential and a middle level of socio-economic development.
On the one hand, this typology seems to be complex enough for the assessment of foreign economic policy. On the other, it does not separately evaluate the development of regional legislation and the analysis of the regulatory framework is based on a simple criterion — the presence or absence of a document. The methodology developed at the turn of the 20th century did not assess the non-resource priorities in the legislation, which at that time were not yet so relevant for either research or managerial agenda.
Thus, a review of the literature showed that on the one hand, there are separate studies of various aspects of the non-resource regional export strategy, confirming its importance. On the other hand, few approaches to quantitative and qualitative assessment of the regional regulatory framework have been developed and there have been no attempts to assess these aspects jointly. The applied and theoretical novelty of the research lies in identifying the diversity and establishing the most successful practices in the formulation of target indicators for the development of non-energy non-resource exports in regional socio-economic strategies. To assess their development we propose to use methods of text analysis of legal documents, which have proven to be effective in fulfilling similar tasks.
Methods and materials for text analysis to assess non-resource and non-energy export development targets in the legislative framework
The task of assessing any legislative framework is interdisciplinary since it requires, firstly, the use of methods of natural and social sciences for automated (intelligent) analysis of texts, and some elements of content analysis. Secondly, it necessitates the adjustment of legal approaches to adapting these methods to the analysis of legal and regulatory documents.
The methodology of content analysis as a scientific method was developed in the works of Mannheim et al. [27], Averyanov [28], Tarshis [29] and others. One of the founders of content analysis Harold Lasswell and his followers wrote, "the main unit of analysis can be a symbol or concept" [30]. In the Russian tradition of content analysis, a different approach has been formed, with the main unit being "a social idea, a certain socially significant topic" [31]. In this study, we will adhere to the definition of content analysis formulated by Kostenko et al., "qualitative-quantitative method of analyzing documents, which is characterized by the objectivity of conclusions and strictness of the procedure and presupposes the quantification of the text with a subsequent interpretation of the results" [32].
Legal science has accumulated a wealth of experience in textual analysis. Initially, the method of qualitative analysis of texts was used. According to Cherdant-sev, this is a special linguistic approach, when "the form of legal information is language as a certain sign system" [33, p. 5]. Qualitative analysis contributes to a deeper understanding of the text but often requires considerable effort on the part of the researcher.
The long tradition of analyzing texts allowed researchers to quickly integrate new automated systems of intellectual analysis of normative texts. Alexander Cherdantsev called this phenomenon "the informational approach to law". He contributed to the development of methods for quantitative analysis of texts. In the beginning, these methods were mostly non-automated. Only later, with the development and adaptation of modern information technologies, these methods began to gradually change. The analysis of modern foreign studies shows that more complex automated solutions for processing the natural language of legal texts are being used increasingly [34]. The automation of the analysis is especially important, since as noted by Saveliev, "at present, the volume of legal texts published electronically is increasing significantly as is the potential of modern information technologies and computational linguistics in the processing of texts" [35, p. 41].
Currently, methods of text analysis methods are being introduced to research into foreign economic activity and social sciences in general. Initially, researchers were more interested in the development and application of qualitative content analysis [36; 5, p. 94]. An independent, more established direction is the non-automated content analysis of normative documents regulating international cooperation, in particular, cross-country comparison. Denis Degterev et al. conducted a frequency content analysis of the occurrence of key foreign policy partners in the national security strategies of the CIS states, which made it possible to identify "the country's foreign policy and its strategic priorities" [37, p. 180—181]. However, only the occurrence of the keyword was analyzed, and the meaning of its use was not studied.
Given the objectives of the research, the article aims to demonstrate the benefits of qualitative and quantitative content analysis with elements of automated text frequency analysis of legal texts. The frequency analysis is employed for the following reasons:
— in most cases, it proves to be more thorough when used in the study of legal documents. Keywords of the document can be used as the unit of analysis, since they are more stable in formal texts. Frequency analysis makes it possible to more objectively assess the repetition of phrases in the text;
— additional advantage is the possibility of analyzing documents of various sizes, since the frequency of occurrence of keywords is estimated as a relative value;
— the number of evaluated keywords can be from one to many.
The accuracy of the method is achieved by developing an automated software programme based on methodologically sound content analysis procedures [31; 29]:
1. Determining the purpose and hypothesis of the study. Based on the text analysis of the regional development strategies in the NWFD, to develop a clas-
sification of target indicators for non-resource and non-energy exports development, to assess their compliance with federal legislation and propose recommendations for improvement.
Taking into account the purpose of the study and the analysis, the following hypotheses were formulated:
Hypothesis I. The most developed regions of the NWFD tend to identify their non-resource and non-energy priorities in their socio-economic development policies before the relevant federal legislation is approved.
Hypothesis II. The target indicators of non-resource and non-energy exports approved in some NWFD regions do not comply with federal legislation.
2. Document selection. To test the hypotheses, the empirical base of the study was created from an array of regional documents. Texts were selected based on the prevalence of themes of non-resource exports in them. All selected texts were then divided into several groups: 1) narrow-profile documents: a) strategies of foreign economic activity; b) programmes of foreign economic activity; 2) multi-disciplinary documents: a) strategies of socio-economic development; b) state programmes of socio-economic (economic) development; c) other government programmes. The analysis showed that there was only one type of legal document, a strategy of socio-economic development, that all regions of the NWFD have elaborated and adopted. Consequently, the empirical base of this study is a collection of full texts of the NWFD Regional Socio-Economic Development Strategies in force at the beginning of 2021 and adopted for the period 2017 — 2021. If there were editions of documents, the corpus included the texts of the consolidated editions (with amendments and additions valid for each year).
3. Development of a conceptual model. To verify the parameters indicated in the hypotheses, a list of concepts denoted by keywords for non-resource and non-energy exports was compiled.
4. Identification of the unit of assessment. To test the proposed hypotheses, it is necessary to identify what strategies thematically belong to non-resource exports. The ratio of keywords to all the words in the document, expressed as a percentage, was chosen as the unit of assessment. This relationship is also called relevance; it shows how the keyword reflects the content of the whole document. Using this indicator makes it possible to overcome the problem of comparing documents with different word counts.
Results and discussion of the analysis of non-resource and non-energy export indicators in the regional strategies of the Northwestern Federal District
The empirical part of the study was carried out according to the previously developed sequence of stages. Within the framework of each of the hypotheses, the following results were obtained.
Hypothesis I. To test the hypothesis, a further attempt was made to identify the current reflection of non-resource and non-energy priorities and also the evolution of their appearance in different regions. To do this, we analyzed the texts of the strategies that were in force during 2017—2020, preceding the approval of non-resource and non-energy priorities at the federal level (the May Decree, 2018). The hypothesis was tested using the example of the regions which adopted non-resource and non-energy priorities ahead of the regions. It was done with the help of the "Istio"6 software used by researchers in the frequency analysis of text keywords [38, p. 22]. The service allows you to evaluate the document by the percentage of keywords in the text. That is, the density (frequency) of occurrence of keywords is measured, their percentage ratio to the entire volume of the text. The keyword was "non-energy", found next to the words "non-resource" and / or "export". The analysis took into account all the forms of the word (cases, plural and singular forms of the given word) (Fig. 3).
Fig. 3. Relevance of the keyword "non-energy" in the strategies of socio-economic development of the regions in the NWFD for
2017 — 2020, %
Source: compiled by the author using the service istio.com.
The initial quantitative analysis of the document texts revealed that not all the regions of the NWFD contain the keyword denoting priorities of non-resource and non-energy exports development in their the strategy documents (nine out of eleven regions). The "non-resource and non-energy export" in its various verbal forms and its direct analogues are completely absent in the strategies of the Kaliningrad and Murmansk regions. Despite the absence of the keywords in the strategies, the importance of export orientation is mentioned.
6 Service of automatic text analysis "Istio", available at: http://istio.com (accessed 02.19.2021).
Thus, hypothesis I was not confirmed since there are no regions in the NWFD whose strategy contains priorities for the development of non-resource and non-energy exports adopted earlier than the federal level documents (earlier than 2018). An assessment of the emergence of the priority under study shows the expected time dependence: in most regions of the NWFD (six out of eleven), they were introduced in 2019 (a year after the federal legislation). In three regions, the strategies were adopted with a delay of another year — in 2020 (Vologda, Leningrad and Pskov regions).
Hypothesis II. To test this hypothesis, a text corpus (181 words) was compiled from the existing texts of the strategies for the socio-economic development of the regions of the NWFD, containing provisions for non-resource and non-energy exports. Frequency analysis required lemmatization of the original corpus, that is, reduction of each word to a simpler form. For this procedure, Russian researchers usually use Yandex "MyStem" software [39, p. 20; 40; 17]. After the lemmatization, the transformed text was further transformed; conjunctions, prepositions, pronouns, punctuation marks and other symbols were removed from the corpus. Using the "Word It Out" service7 a word cloud was built, reflecting the occurrence of phrases and individual words used with them (Fig. 4).
Industrial agriculture eXpC^t Of NN gOOAS
billion US dollars complex
^ attractiveness passenger Novgorod region
pr° L1C efficient development country technique
Novgorod main t\ t meral , j. . . structure
middle redistribution j\|]\J CXPOIX pr0gram
Kazakhstan item IT Leningrad region
upper redistribution ^^hanical Nenets Autonomous Okrug level Swiss Confederation
NN industriell produktioun S , aggl°™ration five St. Petersburg
1 vessel j, -| ncrease cooperation position
allow 1
render January next among I ^^^ mol;e industrial potential
growth value lesstha" V VJILilliC suppJy.
ypo v* SME size electric PaPer dynamics 17 ge redistributionre international market tourist increase
products equipra™ 11 million US dollars percentage
period transport dlStnb percent base sawn timber between commodity general connect number achievemer leading
Belarus competitiveness comparison nn products
1 Pskov region implementation billion US dollars per year ...... h„iu_„„
export Pskov region in
per year medium-term build-up lower redistribution
unclassified be carried out instrument service (Wiff^iQut
Fig. 4. Word cloud of provisions for non-resource and non-energy exports, contained in the strategies of socio-economic development of the regions in the NWFD*
Comment: NN — non-resource and non-energy; * except for the strategies of the Kaliningrad and Murmansk regions, as they do not contain these provisions.
Source: compiled by the author as of April 2021 using "Word It Out" service.
7 About build servicecloud of words "Word It Out", 2021, available at: https://worditout. com/word-cloud/create (accessed 02.19.2021).
Fig. 4 shows phrases and words occurring in the papers more than twice. Let us consider a list of the most common phrases in the combined text of the current strategies of the regions of the NWFD. A detailed analysis revealed the following frequency of key phrases (given in a regressive order of frequency):
— export of non-resource and non-energy goods — 17;
— non-resource and non-energy export — 16;
— billion US dollars — 12;
— million US dollars — 11;
— billion US dollars per year — 4;
— lower redistribution — 3.
The most frequent single word is "volume" and other phrases that are close in meaning to it. The most frequent word combinations are names of indicators. To identify other semantic meanings (approval of a priority or a formalized target indicator, etc.), a classification was developed (Table).
The frequency of keywords in strategies differs significantly from region to region (occurred from one to nine times). In the strategies of the NWFD regions, 44 verbal constructions reflect priorities and/or targets for non-resource and non-energy exports. They vary greatly both from region to region and within the same strategy. Such diversity requires a separate understanding and identification of limitations and opportunities for improvement.
We propose a classification of regional target indicators of non-resource and non-energy exports. The first most significant feature to be taken into account is the degree to which the priority is formalized; a high degree implies that the priority is stated as a specific indicator and a low degree means a non-formalized statement of the priority. For ease of perception, the table indicates only the most significant class of those contained in Strategy 1. The second criterion is the compliance of the indicator with the federal legislation (Decrees of the President of the Russian Federation). Since there are two current indicators (of 2020 and of 2018), the presence of both was assessed. None of the strategies of the NWFD regions has an indicator identical to the federal one (as of 2020): "real growth in exports of non-resource and non-energy goods not less than ... % compared to the indicator for 2020". The closest to this relative type is the indicator in the strategy of St. Petersburg. However, formally, this indicator does not comply with the federal calculation methodology and it does not use the value of 2020 as a baseline.
Five out of nine regional strategies were approved at the federal level in 2018. However, almost all of them differ from it in the degree of the description of the values of indicators. The advantage of some strategies is their having several implementation scenarios (the Republics of Karelia and Komi). Moreover, the first republic has the maximum annual detailing of values until 2030, while the second has a partial one (first annually until 2025, and then by stages until 2035). Strategies without any scenarios also differ: having annual indicator values (Novgorod region) and phased values (Arkhangelsk region, Nenets Autonomous Okrug).
In the remaining three regions, the indicators did not correspond to the federal ones. Close in meaning to the federal indicator of 2018, but not equivalent to it was a relative indicator of the Leningrad region - "the share of non-commodity non-energy exports in total exports".
But this indicator is more dependent on the volume of total exports of the region, and in the absence of a priority for its development can be lowered for the sake of a more significant indicator.
The wording of the target in the strategy of the Vologda Oblast seems alarming ("Growth in non-resource, non-energy exports in 2030 will be at least 70 % compared to 2020"). In terms of the keywords used and their sequence, it is as similar as possible to the more relevant federal indicator for 2020. However, taking into account the comma used between the keywords "non-resource" and "non-energy", the strategy apparently succeeded in approving two atypical indicators "export of non-resource goods" and "export of non-energy goods". According to the generally accepted methodological approaches to the calculation of these indicators, it is unlikely that their values can be close in one region in a given period of time. Therefore, the presence of a comma leads to ambiguity in the understanding of the target indicator. The non-resource component of the Pskov region strategy is controversial as well. On the one hand, the strategy text shows the highest occurrence of keywords (nine times). On the other hand, in all but one case, they are used not to indicate priorities, but to describe the current state of the region. The only indication close to the wording of the priority was not formulated as an indicator; moreover, it was used in a very vague context ("due to non-commodity non-energy exports"). It means that the strategy did not formulate its priorities properly. Experts often point out that the core regional problem is "a vague or ambiguous formulation of goals and indicators" [21, p. 153]. Therefore, achieving such poorly formalized targets does not seem to be obliging. Consequently, the lack of clearly formalized priorities and indicators reduces the likelihood of the development of non-resource non-energy exports in the region.
Thus, the development of the proposed classification made it possible to reveal the fact that none of the strategies for the socio-economic development of the Northwestern Federal District regions includes a target indicator similar to the more relevant federal one (for 2020). Most of the regions (six out of eleven) only meet the 2018 target and to varying degrees. In two regions, the target is significantly different from the federal one. The greatest risk arises in the three Northwestern Federal District regions where no target is stated. Two of the regions do not even define the need to develop non-resource and non-energy exports, although there may be even less specific priorities for non-resource exports.
Hypothesis II was confirmed: not all regions of the NWFD, have target indicators for the development of non-resource non-energy exports, which were approved in the strategies of socio-economic development and corresponded to federal legislation, which can reduce their export potential.
Classification of target indicators for non-resource and non-energy exports development in the strategies of socio-economic development of the NWFD
Target class Formulating the indicator in the strategy Region NWFD
1. Priority is formalized into an indicator: 1.1. The indicator corresponds to the federal indicator in the statement of 2020
1.1.1. Identical indicator
1.1.2. Same type indicator Name of indicator, measurement unit The value of the indicator by years Saint Petersburg
21 y. 24 y. 30 y. 35 y.
Volume growth rate of non-resource and non-energy exports of goods (total) (annual average for the period), % 107.03 108.01 108.12 105.98
1.2. The indicator corresponds to the main federal one in the wording of 2018
1.2.1. Contains different implementation scenarios: A. Annual values of the indicator Priority areas and indicators Scenario Fact Forecast 1st stage 2nd stage >rd stage Rep. Karelia
17 v. 18 v.* 19 g. 20 g. 21 g. 22 v. 23 g. 24 v. 25 g. 26 g. 27 g. 28 g. 29 g. 30 g.
The volume of exports of non-resource and non-en-ergy goods, mln. US dollars inertia 473.1 500 520 550 580 620 660 700 729.9 761.2 793.7 827.7 863.1 900
target 473.1 500 540 580 620 660 700 790 821.7 854.6 888.8 924.4 961.5 1000
forced 473.1 500 566 620 673 730 793 870 904.7 940.8 978.3 1017.3 1057.8 1100
B. Partially annual indicator values Target indicator Scenario Fact Fact/ Estimation Stage I — up to 21 y. Stage II — up to 25 y. Stage III -up to 30 y. Stage IV -up to 35 y. Rep. Komi
17 v. 18 y. 19 v. 20 y. 21 v. 22 y. 23 y. 24 y. 25 g. 30 y. 35 g.
The volume of exports of non-resource and non-energy goods, bin US dollars Optimistic 0.58 0.59 0.64 0.69 0.73 0.78 0.82 0.88 0.90 0.92 0.94
Target 0.58 0.59 0.63 0.68 0.72 0.77 0.81 0.87 0.89 0.91 0.93
Inertia. 0.58 0.59 0.61 0.65 0.71 0.75 0.79 0.84 0.85 0.86 0.87
1.2.2. Indicator values without highlighting implementation scenarios: A. Annual values of the indicator Name of indicator 16 y. 17 y. 18 y. 19 y. 20 y. 21 y. 22 y. 23 y. 24 y. 25 y. Novgorod region
The volume of exports of non-resource and non-energy goods (including exports of services) (mln US dollars) 739.0 1024.5 1129.5 1210.5 1278.0 1392.0 1530.3 1658.5 1794.0 1938.0
B. Stepwise indicator values The value of exports of non-resource and non-energy goods, mln US dollars 24 y. 1,509.00 30 y. 1,704.00 35y. 2 319.00 Arkhangelsk region
Name of indicator Current values of indicators Target values of indicators by the stages of strategy implementation Nenets Autonomous Okrug
Russia, 17 NWFD, 17 NAO**, 17 I stage, 21g. Stage II, 24 Stage III, 30g.
The value of exports of non-resource and non-energy goods, mln USD 135.1 20.2 0 not less than 0.5 not less than 0.5 Not less than 1.0
Source: compiled by the author according to reference and legal systems.
The results obtained in the study make it possible to develop practical recommendations for the regional authorities of the NWFD. As part of the national project, federal funding for relevant regional events will depend on the territory's success in achieving the required values of non-resource and non-energy exports. This study made it possible to justify the importance of improving strategies and the need to implement the following proposals for the regional authorities of the NWFD:
1. Recommendations for the Kaliningrad, Murmansk and Pskov regions. The absence of non-resource and non-energy provisions in the current (as of April 2021) regional strategies weakens the institutional condition for the increased contribution of the regions to the corresponding federal target. Statistical data show good progress of these regions in the growth of non-resource and non-energy exports. In 2020, among the regions of the NWFD, the Kaliningrad region showed the best dynamics of the volume of non-resource and non-energy exports of 116.1 % (although there was a significant decline of 75.6 % a year earlier)8. In 2020, the Murmansk region occupied the second position with a growth of 115.9 %. These are stable figures for the region — 114.6 % for the period 2018 — 2020). The Pskov region showed a slight decrease of 98.1 % in 2020. However, taking into account the previous four years, it showed a high growth rate of 110.8 %.
With such good performance, the inclusion in the strategies of the priorities and target indicators already being implemented will not be an additional burden on the regional authorities but will allow them to objectively show the positive results achieved and give an additional impetus to the development of the regions. Therefore, the regions are recommended to amend their strategies and adopt the value of the target indicator, which was approved at the federal level — "by 2030, the growth in exports of non-resource non-energy goods is to be at least 70 % compared to 2020". This approach is in line with the current legislative practice of the regions. This kind of indicator takes into account regional specifics due to its greater universality since it is based on a relative value that better reflects the peculiarity of the region and takes into account its position in the baseline year of 2020.
2. Recommendations for the Leningrad and Vologda regions. It is necessary to replace the existing indicator in the strategies if it does not comply with the federal legislation. It is proposed to introduce and approve a more up-to-date wording of the target indicator (2020) — "real growth in exports of non-resource and non-energy goods of at least 70 % compared to 2020" by 2030. This is especially important if there is a typo in the statement of the target indicator in the text of the strategy of the Vologda region, which greatly distorts its meaning. Since the share of non-resource and non-energy exports in the total export of the
8 Dynamics of the export structure, 2021, My Expert digital platform, available at: http:// regionstat.exportcenter.ru/structure/dynamics (accessed 04.27.2021).
Leningrad Region in 2020 was 49.5 %, and the share of the Vologda Region was even higher — 87.3 %, and they exceed the all-Russian level of diversification (47.7 %), achieving this target in the regions seems possible.
When applying the results obtained, it is important to remember that regional legislation is not the only factor determining the development of non-resource and non-resource exports. However, conceptual documents, as the most important institutional factor, are a productive entry point for analysis. Target indicators and their wordings approved in the regions require further research. It is also planned to assess the relevance of non-resource and non-energy priorities and targets in other types of regional documents.
Conclusion
The analysis of the national economic policy priorities and research shows the importance of developing non-resource and non-energy exports. Researchers have developed only a few theoretical and methodological assumptions about the relevance of regional strategies as an institutional factor in the development of non-resource and non-energy exports. From 2017 to early 2021, more than 35 versions of the NWFD socio-economic development strategies were subjected to qualitative and quantitative content analysis. The scientific importance of the study lies in the author's analysis based on the classification of non-resource and non-energy export targets. The analysis contributes to the development of the theory of regional export strategies by identifying the diversity and best practices for formulating export priorities and target indicators in the regional regulatory framework.
The novelty of the study includes: 1) defining the evolution of non-resource and non-energy priorities in the regional strategies of socio-economic development in the NWFD; 2) identifying the keywords and word combinations that form the provisions on non-resource and non-energy exports of the NWFD; 3) justifying the need to adapt regional strategies to the changed federal system of key performance indicators of non-resource and non-energy exports development.
Of practical significance are the recommendations proposed to the regional authorities of the NWFD on adapting socio-economic development strategies reflecting the updated targets for non-resource exports development. Introducing changes to the regional strategies will help to achieve the national non-resource export development target and will contribute to the systemic diversification of Russian exports. Further research on the topic involves focusing on the economic and statistical evaluation of the significance of non-resource and non-energy exports development, including the analysis of other types of documents and effective mechanisms of supporting non-resource and non-energy exports in the regions.
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The author
Dr Pavel L. Glukhikh, Senior Research Fellow, Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia. E-mail: gluchih_p_l@mail.ru https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5992-3780
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