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ADAPTATION WITHOUT BORDERS. FULL-YEAR 2015 RESULTS
Andrei Vardomatski Summary
Belarusians are demonstrating unprecedented achievements in adapting to the constantly worsening economic situation. It is worsening not only according to objective statistical indicators, but also subjective economic moods. This conclusion - adaptation without borders - which has not been elucidated in this article is, in our opinion, the main feature of Belarusian society in 2015. Every molecule of steam inside the Belarusian pressure-cooker changes its own movement trajectory in order to cool down. That cooker's autonomous steam-processing is especially effective since it has an optional valve...
Trends:
• On the whole, economic moods are worse than in 2014;
• This does not translate into increased protest moods;
• Geopolitical preferences demonstrate a strengthening of pro-Russian orientations;
• Belarusians named president Aleksandr Lukashenko, sportswoman Darya Domracheva, and writer Svetlana Alexievich as persons of the year;
• The most important event in the eyes of Belarusians was the presidential elections.
At the end of each year the NOVAK Laboratory carries out a nationwide representative social poll dedicated to general assessments of the past year, traditionally asking the same questions. This year the field research was done between December 12 and 28, 2015, with a sample size of 1036 respondents. All our conclusions are mostly based on this particular empirical data and monthly public opinion monitoring data from the Belarusian Analytical Workroom.
The nation's economic mood
In 2015, the economic mood of the nation was generally worse than in 2014 (see Graph 1). On average, the "bad" position in 2015 was 15% higher than in 2014 (according to a macroeconomic indicator). The average figure for 2014 was 26.9%, and in 2015 - 42.7%.
Graph 1. How would you assess the current economic situation in your country? %
■f ^ ^ ^ ^ IfllfllilWllfllfllfllflW
—♦- Good -■- Average Bad -K- DK/HS
Those who have least — i.e. the older layers of society — appeared to show the most positive attitudes towards the economic situation in the country. This is an astonishing effect of value systems at work, the subjectivity of social assessments, and the specifics of the mentality of previous generations, who grew up in the USSR (see Graph 2)
Graph 2. How would you assess the current economic situation in your country? % (by age)
63.6
11.9%
10.8%
8-0% 5.2% 5.1%
7.9% =*6.5%
t£%-W* k^
X I A J A _
5.5% *
18-24 25-34
35-44 45-54 55-64
—♦- Good -■- Average Bad -*- DK/HS
Nevertheless, our empirical data do not reveal any rise in protest moods. The number of respondents who answered "quite likely" to the question "How likely is it now that street protests and demonstrations against price rises and the falling standard of living would take place in your city (region)?" is at the same level as during previous periods.
The most significant event
Which event did Belarusians see as the year's most significant? We drew up a list of events, and respondents could only choose one event which they felt was the most important for the country (see Graph 3). The poll results showed the following hierarchy.
Graph 3. Which political, sporting, cultural (etc.) event from the past year do you consider was the most significant? %
Belarusian presidential elections Nobel prize in literature awarded to Sviatlana Alexievich Syrian events
Ukrainian events Signing of the Minsk agreements regarding Ukraine Collapse of the Belarusian rouble
Terrorist atacks in Paris
BATE's victory
European refugee crisis
Slavonic Bazaar
Murder of Boris Nemtsov
Release of political prisoners
Other
None
Hard to say
29.8
n
3.5 7 0.9 0.8 0.6 I 1.3
4.6 4.6
12.8 11.7
10.6
6.4 6.0 4.9
□ Dec. 15
Incidentally, when we asked about the main event without listing options, the overwhelming majority answered "Don't know/Hard to say". This fact is interesting not only methodologically, but it also has an important, informative social connotation. People had difficulty in selecting any event above others. There are no events in the country, because people have no involvement in decision-making concerning events. Hence, subjectively, people do not sense that any important events are taking place.
Summing up public discussions on this topic, it is important to mention the following two observations.
1. Comparing the significance of the presidential elections and the Nobel Prize awarded to Svetlana Alexievich, the Belarusian democratic community clearly esteemed the first Belarusian Nobel to be a much more important event for the country than the presidential elections. Naturally, there is a reason for this. Yet, the general public chose the presidential elections as the most significant event for the country.
2. Comparing the significance of the presidential elections and the Ukrainian events, we have indirect evidence to show that the Ukrainian events were considered more important than the presidential elections. We have been measuring the level of
Graph 4. In your opinion, which event from the past year listed below was more important for Belarus? %
Belarusian presidential
Nobel prize in literature awarded to Sviatlana Alexievich
elections
DK/HS
Other
None
interest in the presidential elections and the Ukrainian events (see Graphs 5 and 6), and registered numerous indicators of the influence of Ukrainian events on all aspects of life in Belarus over the last couple of years, starting in 2013. But when faced with a direct question, people specify the presidential elections as being more important.
Let us examine these two aspects in more detail. In the first case, concerning the "Presidential elections — Nobel Prize" axis: to adequately compare the significance of these two events as subjectively perceived by the mass consciousness, we have formulated a special question to compare only these two events: "In your opinion, which event from the past year listed below
Graph 5. Please describe how closely you are following the current presidential election campaign? %
49.2
24.3
1
22.8
I
3.3
Oct. 15
0.4
Very closely Not very Don't follow Hard to say Refused closely at all to answer
Graph 6. Do you follow the events in Ukraine? % 67.6 68.2
a» * 52-2
61.5 60.7
54.8 55.0
f) 1—1 l-H in in vi in **
u 41 0 i Q. u w l 1 i S3 1 i n
■ I'm closely following the events ■ I've heard a few t hings about it
was more important for Belarus?" (see Graph 4). The result was 49% in favour of the elections, and 29% for the Nobel. Obviously, the ratio in the special questions comparing only those two events (49 + 29 = 1.689) was lower than the ratio for the general question listing all the events (29.8 + 12.8 = 2.328), but it did not alter the ranking.
The second case concerns the "Ukrainian events — Belarusian presidential elections" axis. As can be seen from the graphs (see Graphs 5 and 6), the level of interest in the Ukrainian events is higher than in the elections. This is particularly visible in the "closely following" option, which showed 24.2% for the presidential elections, whereas it never fell below 44% in relation to the Ukrainian events.
Person of the year 2015
The person of the year for Belarus appeared to be Lukashenko (see Graph 7), which is not surprising. However, Darya Domracheva — a Lukashenko-oriented Belarusian sportswoman extensively promoted by the Belarusian media in 2015 — was hot on his heels (and she took first place in 2014, overtaking Lukashenko). What is surprising is that, in the context of public discourse, the first Belarusian Nobel Prize-winner entered the world's list of people of the year, as perceived by Belarusians (see Graph 8), taking third place on this world list.
The most impressive graph turned out to be the correlation between attitudes to Alexievich and the respondents' education level — the significance of the event grew sharply, depending on educational qualifications (see Graph 9).
A mirage at the end of the tunnel
Compared to the same period in 2014, the situation regarding hope remained practically the same (see Graph 10). However, in December 2015 there were more people who felt hope for the next year than in January 2015, when the Belarusian rouble collapsed. People have got used to the new currency rates, and believe that there is light at the end of the tunnel. But this is an endless tunnel...
Graph 7. Who in your opinion could be named person of the year 2015 in our country (Belarus)?
Aleksandr Lukashenko Darya Domracheva
Svetlana Alexievich_
Anton Kushnir 2.5 Tatsiana Karatkevich 1.8 Alia Tfcuper 1.1 Vladimir Makey 11-0 Lidia Yermoshina 0.7 Uladzimir Nyaklyayew |0.6 Mikola Statkevich 0.4 Yiiry Chyzh 10.4 Ryhor Baradulin 0.2 Anatol Liabiedzka 0.1
Ales Bialiatski Aleksandr Radkov Kirill Rudy Andrei Sannikov
Other 0.4 No candidate/against all Hard to say Refused to answer 0.7
27.7
25.4
Dec. 15
Geopolitical orientation
Belarusians' geopolitical orientations in 2015 were distinguished by dominant pro-Russian moods, which spiked during the last couple of months of the year. Pro-Russian moods were exhibited by two-thirds of the population practically throughout the whole year. The only exception was the period July-October, when pro-Russian orientations were falling. This was probably due to decreased coverage of Russian topics by all media, and a comparative lull in the Russian-Ukranian conflict. Pro-European orientations have never been so low (see Graph 11).
Graph 8. Who in your opinion could be named person of the year 2015 in the world? %
Vladimir Putin
Aleksandr Lukashenko
Svetlana Alexievich M
Sergey Lavrov ■ 1.9
Ban Ki-moon ■ 1.7
Angela Merkel |1.5
Ki mJong-un 10.8
Piotr Poroshenko 0.6
Nursultan Nazarbayev ¡0.6
Pope Ftancis 0.5
Barack Obama 0.5
R-ancpis Hollande 0.2
John Kerry 0.2
Xi Ji npi ng 0.2
Donald Hisk 0.1
David ameron 0.1
Gunnar Wiegang 0.1
Maira Mora 0.1
Arseniy Ifotsenyuk 0.0
Matthew Lee 0.0
Other |1.0
No candidate/against all
Hard to say
Refused to answer 0.6
39.9
17.5
10.5
Dec. 15
13.5
8.0
Graph 9. Who in your opinion could be named person of the year 2015 in the world? (by education)
0.35
0.26 029 °-3° —
0.16.
0.22
0.23
Nobel prize in literature awarded to Sviatlana Alexievich
Primary Unfinished Secondary Primary Secondary Unfinished Higher and lower secondary professional profes- higher
(technical sional professional school)
The years preceding the Ukrainian events demonstrated a different geopolitical landscape, with lower pro-Russian and higher pro-European moods.
Graph 10. What feelings do you experience when thinking about the upcoming year? %
65.7
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Hhb-2015 2015
-♦- Hope * Anxiety -A- Uncertainty ■*■ DK/HS
This is an obvious result of the impact of Russian TV channels, which dominate the Belarusian media space. Official Belarusian media do not promote differing points of view. The Ukrainian TV channels are virtually absent from the Belarusian broadcast market.
Graph 11. In which union do you feel the Belarusian people would live better: the EU, or a union with Russia? %
69.8
27.5 28.0
m Cl TT Tt Tt TT 02 Tf Tf ■t TT in Vi in V5 V) in If)
■t IM i—i
1 o « a i i-s à s fr S i—i 1 B. v 3 o 1 u <u Q l 1 S. S3 § 1 1 1 à u ce "S O ù 01 Q
M— In Union with Russia
-ä— DK/HS
