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ADAPTATION OF AGRICULTURAL ENTITIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE: WORLD EXPERIENCE
1Nazirova Zulfina, 2Turobova Hulkar
1Graduate student of Bioeconomics, Bukhara State University 2Scientific supervisor, PhD, associate professor of the Department of Green economics and agribusiness, Bukhara State University https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11439932
Abstract. The adaptation of agricultural entities to climate change is a critical global challenge that requires innovative strategies and collaborative efforts. This abstract provides an overview of the world's experience in adapting agriculture to the impacts of climate change.
Climate change poses significant challenges to agriculture, including changing weather patterns, increasedpest and disease outbreaks, and water scarcity. These challenges threaten food security and livelihoods worldwide.
Global efforts to adapt agriculture to climate change include crop diversification, precision agriculture technologies, climate-smart practices, and insurance schemes. These strategies aim to enhance resilience, optimize resource use, and mitigate risks associated with climate variability.
Case studies from various regions demonstrate successful adaptation strategies, such as sustainable water management in arid regions, agroforestry practices in tropical areas, and community-based initiatives promoting resilience in smallholder farming systems.
By learning from global experiences and implementing innovative solutions, agricultural entities can build resilience and sustainability in the face of climate change. Continued investment, research, and policy support are essential to ensure a secure and productive agricultural sector for future generations.
This abstract highlights the importance of proactive adaptation measures and the needfor coordinated action at the global level to address the complex challenges posed by climate change in agriculture.
Keywords: climate change, weather patterns, adaptation strategies, pest and disease outbreaks, water scarcity, diversification of crops, drought.
Introduction.
As the impacts of climate change on agriculture have become increasingly evident, posing significant challenges to agricultural entities worldwide. Extreme weather events, shifting precipitation patterns, and rising temperatures threaten global food security. Addressing these challenges requires the development and implementation of effective adaptation strategies to ensure the resilience and sustainability of agricultural systems. This article explores the world's experience in adapting agricultural entities to climate change by examining various strategies, conducting quantitative and qualitative analysis, presenting statistical data, making comparisons, and offering suggestions for future actions.
The functions of agriculture in the context of the changes taking place in global and social systems are those that form its potential to mitigate or enhance climate change. So far, agricultural activities have primarily affected negatively local and regional air quality and the quality of water resources, the fragmentation and degradation of the natural environment, and, at the threshold of the 20th and 21st centuries, began to include broadly defined adaptive or corrective activities for
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those changes. The rural sector, due to its specificity, i.e. the traditional and low-technological methods of production and low qualification of employees, should be considered the sector with the highest exposure to the negative effects of climate change. Fundamental for the agricultural sector is the production and income obtained from it, which constitute the basic priority of the adaptation process in the industry. This is the main cause of the observed agricultural activities, while the process of adapting those activities to climate changes is seriously retarded, and in general, it is still very poorly recognized, mainly in the village and this farming unit level.
Literature review
Different opinions about the impacts of climate change on agriculture are presented in various literature. Ceglar, in his article "Observed Northward Migration of Agro-Climate Zones in Europe Will Further Accelerate Under Climate Change. Earth's Future" says, Current agricultural areas will become unsuitable for producing crops with increasing global temperatures. In Europe for example, agricultural production is expected to shift northward forcing some southern European farmers to abandon generational farmlands as weather conditions become too warm and dry.
In order to maintain their way of life, some farmers will have to convert forests or peatlands to new arable land. The scarcity of available land will drive up the price of productive lands.
According to Uddling, Climate and environmental factors affect harvest quality, including the nutritional value of crops. Increasing CO2 concentrations are found to have negative effects on nutrient concentrations on food crops. Similarly, extreme heat and droughts reduce soil fertility and could increase land degradation that affects crop productivity.
Crop output is also adversely affected by pests and diseases, as well as by extreme temperatures and drought and flood events. Extreme weather events not only cause losses for farmers, but they also cause disruptions to the entire food supply chain.
Research methodology
During the preparation of the article, mainly data such as global land and ocean temperature anomalies with respect to the 1901 to 2020 base period, adaptation strategies of different countries over the world were analyzed. Based on this information, all problems related to adaptation of agricultural entities to climate change were studied and innovative models of their elimination were developed.
Analyses and results
Among the current effects of climate change are the followings:
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intense droughts
water scarcity
rising maximum or minimum temperature
severe fires
Effects of climate change
declinin
g
biodiver sity
rising
sea levels
catastro phic storms
flooding
melting polar ice
sector.
Source: created by authors
Figure 1. Types of climate change consequences
Of course, all of the climate change consequences mentioned above can affect agricultural Impacts of climate change on agriculture:
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reduce access to food
disruption of food availability
decrease in food quality
soil erosion
increased probability of fire
contributing to the spread of pests
increasing soil erosion
limiting the availability of soil water
decreasing crop yield and soil fertility
increased drought
reduced yields
Source: created by authors
Figure 2. Impacts of climate change
In the 21st century, direct exposure to the effects of climate change and variability is having a significant negative influence on crop productivity. This is an increasing global environmental challenge. The primary determinants of crop growth and production are temperature and rainfall intensity and variability, all of which are very susceptible to changes in climate. Changes in mean temperatures, rainfall, and CO2 concentrations all have an impact on how much climate change affects crop productivity.
• Crop Yield Impacts: Studies have shown that crop yields are projected to decrease by 525% globally with each 1°C increase in temperature, posing a significant challenge to food security.
• Water Stress: Approximately 1.8 billion people live in areas experiencing water scarcity, which is exacerbated by climate change. Agriculture accounts for around 70% of global water withdrawals, highlighting the need for improved water management practices.
• Economic Losses: Climate change-related agricultural productivity losses are estimated to reach $540 billion per year by 2050 if adaptation measures are not implemented, demonstrating the urgency of action.
• Extreme Weather Events: The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods, and storms, have increased in recent years, affecting agricultural production and livelihoods.
• Pest and Disease Pressures: Changing climatic conditions have led to the spread of pests and diseases, causing significant crop losses and posing challenges for pest management strategies.
We are clearly observing the increase in air temperature from year to year. This creates difficulties for all agricultural entities.
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Temperature (1880-2019); — 30-year moving average — 5-year moving average
Source: https://doi.ors/10.1016/B978-0-323-91001-9.00009-8
Figure 3. Climate change and the variability of short-term weather
While rainfall, humidity, and other meteorological variables are researched at regional scales, temperature is the only indication of climate change that can be quantified globally. The rise in temperature observed recently is ascribed to greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activity. The combustion of fossil fuels and changes in land use have recently increased greenhouse gas emissions, which is mostly reflective of the recent changes in the global climate, including a 1°C increase in temperature over pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels.
From 1978 to 2020, there has generally been a positive anomaly (showing raised temperatures from the baseline), and this tendency is expected to increase significantly over time due to global warming (Fig. 4).
Source: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-323-91001-9.00009-8
Figure 4. Global land and ocean temperature anomalies with respect to the 1901 to 2020 base period.
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The negative anomaly (values below 0°C) indicates that the observed temperature was lower than the baseline whereas the positive anomaly (values above 0°C) indicate that the observed temperature was higher than the baseline.
Over the past few decades, the global mean surface temperature has increased by 0.76°C on average. By the end of the twenty-first century, future projections indicate that the global mean temperature will likely rise by 0.3-1.0°C under RCP 2.6, 1.1°C to 2.6°C under RCP 4.5, 1.4-3.1°C under RCP 6.0, and 2.6°C to 4.8°C under RCP 8.5.
According to the International Monetary Fund, developing countries' agricultural output decreases by 3% points for every degree Celsius that temperatures rise. In terms of Africa, the locust plagues that struck east of the country in 2019 were largely caused by warming temperatures and shifting patterns of rainfall. 13 million people were at risk of acute food insecurity as a result of the locusts' devastating effects on pastureland and crops as they moved over the area.
Climate change, characterized by rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, more frequent extreme weather events, and shifting pest and disease pressures, presents a series of challenges for agriculture. These changes can impact crop yields, water availability, soil health, and overall agricultural productivity. To address these challenges, agricultural entities must adapt their practices and systems to the changing climate conditions. Various strategies have been employed globally to help agricultural entities adapt to climate change. These strategies include:
Table 1. Types of adaptation strategies and their definition
Adaptation Strategies Definition
Diversification of Crops By cultivating a wider range of crops, farmers can adapt to changing environmental conditions and market demands.
Adoption of Sustainable Practices Embracing sustainable agricultural practices such as conservation tillage, agroforestry, and organic farming enhances resilience to climate change while reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preserving natural resources.
Investment in Research and Development Agricultural research institutions and governments worldwide are investing in research and development to develop climate-resilient crop varieties, improve water management techniques, and enhance soil health.
Strengthening Rural Infrastructure Building resilient infrastructure, including irrigation systems, storage facilities, and roads, improves agricultural productivity and enables farmers to withstand climate-related disruptions.
Enhancing Access to Information and Extension Services Providing farmers with timely and accurate information on weather forecasts, pest outbreaks, and best agricultural practices empowers them to make informed decisions and adapt to changing conditions effectively.
Improved Water Management Implementing water-efficient irrigation techniques, rainwater harvesting, and groundwater management can help agricultural entities cope with water stress.
Adoption of Climate-Resilient Varieties Plant breeding programs are developing climate-resilient crop varieties that can withstand heat, drought, pests, and diseases. By adopting these improved varieties, farmers can enhance the stability of their yields in a changing climate.
Agroforestry and Soil Conservation Integrating trees into farming systems through agroforestry practices can provide multiple benefits, including improved soil health, biodiversity conservation, and carbon sequestration. Soil conservation measures such as no-till farming and cover cropping can also enhance soil resilience to
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climate change impacts.
Capacity Building and Knowledge Sharing Providing farmers with training, information, and resources on climate-smart agricultural practices is essential for effective adaptation. Extension services, farmer education programs, and knowledge-sharing platforms play a crucial role in building the adaptive capacity of agricultural entities.
Source: The table was created by authors
The most common adaptation strategy for the climate change by the majority of research
60,00% 50,00% 40,00%% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00%
51,50%
45% 42%
22%
i i i
Crop diversification
Planting drought-tolerant types
Altering planting dates
Planting early-maturing crops
Source: created by authors based on Magesa, Bahati A., 2023, Understanding the farmers' choices and adoption of adaptation strategies, and plans to climate change impact in Africa: A systematic review, Journal article
Figure 5. The most common strategy by the majority of research in 2020-2023 The figure given shows that the findings revealed that majority of studies identified crop diversification (51.5%), planting drouht-tolerant varieties (45%), changing planting dates (42%), and planting early maturing crops (22%) as dominant strategies.
Some countries in the world have developed their own climate adaptation in agriculture strategies and have already achieved good results.
Table 2. Countries and their adaptation to climate change strategies to the climate
change
Name The adaptation strategies
United States Irrigation (e.g. traditional, micro irrigation, targeted irrigation, irrigation scheduling, drip irrigation), Changing crop varieties, Shifting planting dates, Managing fertilizer or pesticide, Adoption of new technology (e.g. soil moisture sensor, land leveling, hail nets, wind machines)
Australia Promoting drought-resistant crops, improving irrigation efficiency, and investing in climate-resilient agricultural practices. These efforts have helped mitigate the impacts of climate change on agriculture.
Sub-Saharan Africa Conservation agriculture and agroforestry, has shown promise in enhancing resilience.
The Netherlands Greenhouse gas emissions reduction, and efficient water management to
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Name The adaptation strategies
United States Irrigation (e.g. traditional, micro irrigation, targeted irrigation, irrigation scheduling, drip irrigation), Changing crop varieties, Shifting planting dates, Managing fertilizer or pesticide, Adoption of new technology (e.g. soil moisture sensor, land leveling, hail nets, wind machines)
adapt to climate change. The adoption of precision farming technologies and climate-resilient crop varieties has improved productivity and sustainability.
Ethiopia Crop diversification, use of different crop or animal varieties, planting trees, soil and water conservation, changing planting and harvesting dates, small-scale irrigation, collection of wild foods (edible fruits and vegetables, fish), involvement of traditional institutions.
India Heat and water stress-tolerant crop varieties, stress-tolerant new crops, improved agronomic management practices, improved water use efficiency, conservation agriculture practices and improved pest management, improved weather forecasts
Source: The table was created by authors
In addition, in a number of countries of the world, the following strategies are also carried out in order to prevent the consequences of climate change and the damages from them.
S Resilience Building: Countries like Norway and Sweden have invested in research and development to breed climate-resilient crop varieties, demonstrating the importance of innovation in building agricultural resilience.
S Policy Frameworks: Countries such as Costa Rica and Bhutan have implemented policy frameworks that incentivize sustainable agricultural practices and support farmers in adapting to climate change, highlighting the role of supportive policies in driving adaptation efforts.
S International Collaboration: Global initiatives like the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement aim to foster international collaboration on climate change mitigation and adaptation, emphasizing the need for coordinated efforts to address the global challenge.
Predicted changes in temperature and impacts on crop production.
Rising temperatures are anticipated to affect agricultural phenology, raise respiration rates, decrease pollen germination, shorten the time it takes for grains to fill, and eventually diminish crop biomass and yield. Climate change threatens the global yields of main food crops, which together provide more than 67% of the calories consumed by humans: wheat, rice, maize, and soybeans. Global production of wheat, rice, maize, and soybeans is expected to decrease by an average of 6%, 3%, 7.4%, and 3.1%, respectively, with a 1°C increase in temperature. Under various climatic conditions, the average yield loss for the chosen crops varies in size (Table 3).
Table 3. Projected reduction in yields (%) of selected crops by end of 21st century due to change of temperature.
Crop RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
Wheat 6.9 11.4 14 22.4
Rice 3.3 5.5 6.8 10.8
Maize 8.6 14.2 17.4 27.8
Source: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-323-91001-9.00009-8
In Africa, there is a chance that the mean annual temperature would rise more quickly than the global average, with an average increase of more than 2°C by the middle of the twenty-first
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century and 4°C by the end of the century. East Africa is expected to see the greatest global temperature rise, with increases of up to 2-3°C and up to 4°C under the B1 and A2 scenarios, respectively, by the 21st century. Wheat yields in the area could drop by as much as 72% by the 2080s, making it the crop most likely to be severely impacted. (Adhikari et al., 2015). The crops that will be moderately impacted include the following: millet - 17% to 27 %, beans - 12% to 17 %, rice - 15 % to 3%, and maize - 45% to 18%. The least affected crop is sorghum, whose yields may only be 5% of what is now produced. Root crops such as sweet potatoes, potatoes, and cassava, with yields that could vary from -15 % to 10 %, will also be less impacted. By 2050, the percentage of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) that is suitable for maize could vary from 0.6% to 0.8% (a decrease of 1.3% in Western and Central Africa and 1.3%-2.5% in Eastern and Southern Africa). By 2080, the amount of land suitable for maize production in SSA is expected to rise by 0.2%-2.3% owing to an increase in areas in Eastern and Southern Africa, and decrease by 1.2%-1.4%, primarily in Central and Western Africa.
In China the temperature has reportedly risen at a pace of 0.38°C every ten years throughout the past 50 years. It has been noted that this has had a significant effect on crop output, planting limits, and crop growth and productivity. Crop growth is expected to be adversely affected by temperature increases to values exceeding 34°C. By the end of the twenty-first century, this will result in a 3%-12% drop in maize yields and a 7%-19% fall in soybean yields. The amount of water needed for crop irrigation and rice production in Southern China might rise by more than 2% and 5%, respectively, between 2046 and 2065, and by 5% and 15%, respectively, between 1981 and 2100 . From the middle to the end of the twenty-first century, there will probably be a northward and westward shift in the land areas suitable for rice crops.
Australia's annual mean temperature is expected to rise by 2.3 ± 0.5°C under RCP4.5 and 4.2 ± 0.9°C under RCP8.5 by 2090, surpassing the values of 1980-1999 and leading to a rise in hot days. Due to an increase in leaf senescence brought on by temperatures above 34°C, changes in temperature of ± 2°C could affect mean wheat yields in Australia by as much as 50%.
In the United States, yields of soybeans are expected to decrease by 6.8 ± 7.1 %, wheat by 7.8 % to 4.1 %, and maize by 10.3 ± 5.4 % with every 1°C increase in temperature.
In Europe, according to projections, the average surface temperature in the 2050s will be between 1.1 and 4.9°C. The yield of maize is predicted to fall by 1%-14% in Northern Europe, while the production of wheat is predicted to rise by 5%-16%. By 2050, climate change is predicted to reduce wheat and maize yields in Southern Europe by 4%-22% and up to 49%, respectively.
Recommendations and proposals.
Based on the analysis of global experience in adapting agricultural entities to climate change, several suggestions can be made for future actions:
S Enhanced Climate Finance
Increased investment in climate-smart agriculture is essential to support the adoption of sustainable practices and technologies by farmers. Financial mechanisms such as climate funds, subsidies, and insurance schemes can help incentivize agricultural adaptation.
S Policy Support
Governments should develop and implement policies that promote climate resilience in agriculture, including incentives for adopting sustainable practices, regulations on land use and water management, and integration of climate considerations into agricultural planning.
S Partnerships and Collaboration
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Strengthening partnerships between government agencies, research institutions, civil society organizations, and the private sector can facilitate knowledge exchange, technology transfer, and capacity building for agricultural adaptation.
S Community Engagement
Engaging local communities in decision-making processes and empowering farmers to take ownership of adaptation initiatives can increase the effectiveness and sustainability of climate resilience efforts in agriculture.
S Integration of Traditional Knowledge
Incorporating traditional knowledge and indigenous practices into adaptation strategies can enrich existing approaches and enhance their cultural relevance and effectiveness.
S Capacity Building and Education
Investing in farmer training, extension services, and educational programs strengthens agricultural resilience and fosters innovation and knowledge sharing within farming communities.
By adopting a holistic approach that combines scientific research, policy support, community engagement, and international collaboration, agricultural entities can better adapt to the challenges posed by climate change and ensure the resilience and sustainability of agricultural systems globally.
Conclusion
In conclusion, adapting agricultural entities to climate change is a complex and multifaceted challenge that requires coordinated efforts at the global, regional, and local levels. By learning from the experiences of different countries and implementing innovative strategies, agricultural entities can build resilience to climate change and ensure food security for future generations.
The effects of climate change vary geographically and are a continuous process. Regarding agri-food production, some areas like Southeast Asia and the African continent will be most affected. Agri-food production could be significantly impacted by projected climate changes, either directly through altered temperature and precipitation patterns or indirectly through the effects of invasive plants, diseases, and pests, coastal inundation, salinization of soils, and invasive plants, pathogens, and pests. The impoverished in rural areas will be most impacted by climate change since they have the least capacity for adaptation. This indicates that people's nutritional imbalances are likely to worsen due to climate change, with the rural poor experiencing reduced food intake and dietary diversity. Although the exact impact is yet unknown, everyone agrees that it will mostly be detrimental and may even be significant in many parts of the world.
Globally speaking, the effects of climate change will be negative, however certain nations may gain from it and produce more agri-food. The degree to which climate change will affect food production will rely on our capacity to lessen its negative effects and our degree of adaptation, which will include changes to farming methods and the creation of new crop varieties that are more resilient to stressors. In order to promote adaptation and mitigation actions at regional scales, supportive policy tools are essential.
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