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10Scenarios Based on future analysis of opportunities and alternative development paths. Germany, "Futur", 1999 Ministry of Science and Technol-og^ 20 years Workshops, online discussions, surveys, panels Strategic development directions, priorities for research programs
Great Britain, "Foresight Program", 2nd round, 19992002 Office of Science and Technology, several Ministries, 10-20 years Panels, seminars, open discussions, Internet platform Suggestions for supporting a national innovation system
Conclusion
Thus, the methods used in national Foresight projects were considered in this article. The main goal of all national foresight projects is to determine the long-term development prospects of the country. Projects have a long-term perspective. The initiators of the projects are the states themselves, and the customers for such initiatives are mostly the ministries.
To implement the project at the proper level, the interaction of various methods is necessary. An integrated approach to the choice of tools to achieve the goal is the basis of any national foresight project. Confirmation of this statement is in the last section of the article.
References
1. Martin BR (1995) Foresight in science and technology. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management
2. Beata Poteralska & Anna Sacio-Szymanska, Evaluation of technology foresight projects
3. А.В.Соколов Форсайт:Взгляд в будущее
4. А.В.Соколов Методология Форсайта и выбор приоритетов инновационного развития, стр.6781
5. T. J. Gordon, J. C. Glenn, Integration, Comparisons, and Frontier of Futures Research Methods, NEW TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT, FORECASTING & ASSESSMENT METHODS-Seville
6. NISTEP. The 8th science and technology Foresight survey - Delphi analysis. National Institute of Science and Technology Policy/ Tokyo, 2005
7. Meissner P, Wulf T (2013) Cognitive benefits of scenario planning: Its impact on biases and decision quality. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 80:801-814.
8. Volker Gientz, Michael Hausick, Andre-Marcel Schmidt, Scenario development without probabilities -focusing on the most important scenario
9. Gordon, Theodore, and Greenspan, David, (1988);"Chaos and Fractals: New Tools For Technological and Social Forecasting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 34, 1-25
10. Калюжнова Н.Я., СУЩНОСТЬ, СОДЕРЖАНИЕ И МЕТОДОЛОГИЯ ФОРСАЙТА
11. А.В.Соколов, Метод критических технологий
12. А.В.Соколов, О.Карасев Форсайт и технологические дорожные карты для наноиндустрии
13. R.Hackathorn, J.Karimi, A framework for comparing information engineering framework, MIS Quartely, June 1998
14. S.Drus, Siti Salbiah Mohamed Shariff, Analysis of Knowledge Audit Models via Life Cycle Approach
О НЕКОТОРЫХ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯХ ФИЛЬТРАЦИОННЫХ СОПРОТИВЛЕНИЙ ПЛАСТА ПРИ ВНУТРИПЛАСТОВОМ ГОРЕНИИ В КОМБИНАЦИИ С ПЕННЫМИ СИСТЕМАМИ
Богопольский В. О.
кандидат технических наук, доцент кафедры «Нефтегазовая инженерия», Азербайджанский Государственный университет нефти и промышленности, г.Баку, Азербайджан
ABOUT SOME CHANGES IN FILTERING RESISTANCE OF THE FORM IN INTRA PLASTIC COMBUSTION IN COMBINATION WITH FOAMY SYSTEMS
Bogopolskiy V.O.
Candidate of Engineering Sciences, Associate Professor at the Department of Oil and Gas Engineering in Azerbaijan State Oil and Industry University,
Baku, Azerbaijan
АННОТАЦИЯ
В данной статье рассмотрены вопросы эффективности вытеснения нефти при разработке месторождений высоковязкой нефти с использованием пенных систем в комбинации с внутрипластовом горением для увеличения охвата пласта.
Задача поиска методов повышения коэффициента вытеснения, изоляция каналов прорыва нагнетаемого реагента является весьма актуальной. Показано, что применение пенных систем в слоисто-неодно-
родных пластах позволяет уменьшить эффективную подвижность вытесняющего агента и селективно изолировать высокопроницаемые пропластки, что приводит к увеличению коэффициента охвата пласта. Приведена математическая модель внутрипластового горения в слоисто -неоднородных пластах круговой формы в комбинации с пенной системой.
Результаты расчетов показывают, что с учетом пенной системы при увеличении проницаемости слоя, фильтрационные сопротивление в выжженной зоне увеличивается от 10 до 500 раз.
ABSTRACT
This paper concentrates on the efficiency of oil displacement while development high-viscosity oil fields using foamy systems as well as fire flooding to increase the coverage of the reservoir.
The problem of searching of methods of increasing the coverage by influence, increasing factor of replacement, isolation of channels of break of pumped reagent is a topical issue.
It is shown that application of foamy systems in layered and heterogeneous stratums, can reduce effective mobility of the injected agent and selectively isolate high-permeable interlayer's that leads to increase in factor of coverage of a layer.
The mathematical model of fire flooding in a combination with foamy system is given for circular layered and heterogeneous reservoirs.
The results of calculations show that taking into account foamy system at increase in permeability of a layer, filtration resistance in a burnt zone increases from 10 to 500 times.
Ключевые слова: слоисто-неоднородные пласты, времени закачки газа, внутрипластовое горение, пенные системы, насыщенность пены, водовоздушное отношение, фильтрационные сопротивления.
Keywords: layered inhomogeneous formations, gas injection times, intralayer combustion, foam systems, foam saturation, water-to-air ratio, the filtration resistances.
Various methods of an intensification of oil recovery from reservoirs, such as fire flooding, steam injection, water replacement of high-viscosity oil etc., characterized by the application of forcing-out agents with high mobility in comparison with reservoir oil, differ one common serious fault - fast break of gas of the forcing-out agent in extracting wells, low coverage of influence both on thickness of a layer, and on the area.
These factors are especially essential to non-uniform layers and result in low values of factor of oil recovery, especially waterless ones [6, 10].
The searching of methods for increasing the coverage, increasing of factor of replacement, isolation of channels of break of forced reagent are very actual, especially in connection with problems of development of fields of high-viscosity oil, and difficult physical and geological structure which share steadily raises[3,7].
For increasing the efficiency of replacement of oil when developing such fields the great interest represents using of foamy systems in a combination with other methods. In particular, the perspective way in our opinion is using foamy systems for increasing the coverage of a layer while fire flooding.
The realization of viscoelastic properties of these systems for the purpose of improvement of the relation of mobility of phases has brought the application of foamy systems in oil production the idea of in non-uniform layers.
Specified idea allows to solve by application of foams questions of alignment of the front of replacement, decrease in viscous instability and increase of factor of coverage of a deposit and, finally, decrease in a residual petro saturation in a layer by application of foams.
The behavior of foamy systems in porous environments is rather difficult.
This is because first that formation of a current or existence of foam occurs in system of thin channels of the variable section which sizes are commensurate with foam cells.
In some cases, the elementary volume of foam can occupy a space that exceeds the size of the pore channel. Preceding from the general reasons it should affect stability of foam negatively.
On the other hand, gas is periodically or constantly injected during oil production with the application of foamy systems.
The major part of the energy, brought by gas into the layer, will be spent for the water saluted dispersion of surfactant. However thus it is necessary to mean that pumping of large volume of gas can lead to drying of foamy system and, therefore, to its destruction.
A large number of works [1, 5, 11, 12] is devoted to results of laboratory and trade researches of foam.
Application of foamy systems in layered and nonuniform layers allows to reduce effective mobility of the forcing-out agent and selectively to isolate high-permeable interlayer that leads to increase in factor of coverage of a layer. While using fire flooding in a layered and non-uniform layer filtration resistance in a burnt zone of a layer behind a burning zone, as a rule, is not enough in comparison with filtration resistance of a part of a layer containing oil ahead of a burning zone. Therefore in process of development of process of fire flooding in a layered and non-uniform layer advancing movement of a zone of burning in more no tight layers in comparison with less no tight ones leads to growth of the relation of their speeds of advance of zones of burning of layers, reduction of sociability of the front of burning in a layer and, therefore, to deterioration of coverage of a layer by thermal influence. Creation the zones occupied with foams in a burnt part of a layer leads to sharp increase in them filtration resistance for water and gas, to more uniform distribution of fluids downloaded in a layer on layers, alignment of the front of burning in a layer and to improvement of coverage of a layer by thermal influence.
Possibility of foaming in the cooled zone of a layer behind the burning front is experimentally established.
Creation of foamy system in this zone leads to rapid increase of filtration resistance for water and gas, more uniform distribution of fluids pumped into the layer, alignment of the front of burning in a layer and improvement of coverage of a layer by thermal influence.
In this work the mathematical model of fire flooding in layered and non-uniform layers of a circular form in a combination with foamy system is described. Development of the general mathematical model of this process considering all processes occurring in layer thermo hydrodynamic and physical and chemical transformations is extremely difficult. The main ideas of the foaming mechanism at fire flooding, received at a pilot studying of this process allows to make its simplified mathematical model.
The mathematical model of this task is developed at the following assumptions and basic provisions described below.
The layer consists of a number of the homogeneous layers divided by impenetrable crossing points. Layers intercommunicate among themselves only through the wells. Distribution of fluids pumped in a layer between the layers occurs in inverse proportion to the current values of filtration resistance of the layers. Let's note that borders of zones which are formed at implementation of fire flooding are divinely the same as in works [4,8,9].
We will review filtration of water, gas and foam in a burnt zone below. Let's assume thus that in case of getting the foam to a zone of warming up, foam breaks up under the influence of high temperature.
Let's consider also that foaming process in a burnt zone does not render essential influence on a saturation of fluids ahead of a burnt zone, and also at mathematical modeling is accepted that foam is almost motionless and also its properties in the all zone where it is formed, are identical.
By results of the experiments at a constant consumption of steam with non-condensate gas change of volume of foam solution in 2d radial flow is approximated by the equation [5]:
Vs - V = Qq x ill -1
V - V = -
7trfs hma
fs
P
(2)
Where / - the multiplicity of foam. From (1) and (2) we obtain the expression for the radius of the foam zone
rfs =
QqP(1 - S)t
7ihmsG
(3)
fs
(1)
where Vs - initial volume of solution; Qq - a consumption of gas in reservoir conditions; S- content of gas that forms foam; the V-volume of the solution which has remained in a layer.
We denote by &fs - the saturation of the foam
phases in the burned zone. Due to the transfer of part of the solution to the foam, the boundary of the foam zone is advanced in the direction of motion. On the other hand, the volume of solution consumed for the formation of foam is:
Foam non-Newtonian system and its viscosity characteristics depend on the shear rate. In [2], some data are presented showing the effect of gas content (at constant shear rate) on the effective viscosity and density of the foam.
The density of the foam pfd is influenced by the
density of the foaming solution ps , air pa and gas content S:
Pfd = Ps (1 - S) + PaS (4)
When S is less than 0.5, the foam is a low-concentrated emulsion of gas bubbles in a liquid, and the bubbles do not interact with each other and the foam does not exhibit specific structural and mechanical properties. In this case, the dependence of the viscosity of the
foam ¡f on the viscosity of the foaming fluid Ms
and gas content S is described by the linear Einstein-Hatien equation:
Mf = Ms (C) X (a! + a2C) (5)
where C is the concentration of surfactant in the
solution; ai and a2 constants, which depend on the formulation of the foaming liquid and the form of gas bubbles in the liquid, respectively.
When steam and gas content is greater than 0.5 -0.54, the bubbles begin to interact with each other, and at S = 0.74 their shells begin to deform, which causes a significant increase in the viscosity of the foam.
Based on such considerations in this work, it is assumed that the foam is practically stationary and the properties of the foam throughout the entire zone where it is formed are almost the same.
Next, we define the saturation distribution in the
foam zone. We denote by &fs - the saturation of the
foam phases in the well bottom zone. The volume of foam formed from the solution volume is:
Vf = V / = tt2fShmofs (6)
where Vs = V0 - V- the volume of the solution which has passed to foam; V - the volume of oil left in
Q t
the reservoir; V0 = —— , Qs - mass recovery of the
Ps
solution.
From a parity (6) we will get:
(V0 —rnrfs hmaa }P = nr2fihma
fs
(7)
After elementary transformations of (7) we find
Vo^ (8)
7Wf hm
Js
So, for definition of saturations in a bottom hole zone of a well the following equations are used:
+ C = 1
Cfs + ßCa =
Vß
'fs PwVqPo,
nr, hm
(9)
Kw WAP0wPqMw
where C , CTw
fs "
The system (10) is given to one equation, area of change of value variable of which is a piece. On this piece equation roots were found by a method of division of a piece in a half.
For carrying out calculations geometrical and geology-physical parameters of a layer we will accept the following parameters: distance between injection and extracting wells is 100 m; the specified radiuses of wells are identical and equal 0,05 m; thickness of the first layer - 6 m, the second - 4 m, the third - 5 m; porosity of the first, second and third layers - 0,32, 0,28 and 0,30; permeability 2,0 mem2, 0,5 mem2 and 1.0 mem2; petro saturations of layers - 0, 77, 0,7 and 0,72; water saturations - 0,20, 0,25 and 0,24; concentration of burning-down fuel on layers - 15 kg/m3, 17,5 kg/m3 and 16 kg/m3; viscosity and density of oil and water density under entry bedded conditions - 360 mPas with and 930 kg/m3, 1000 kg/m3 respectively; density of the matrix of the porous environment - 2600 kg/m3; a specific thermal capacity of a skeleton of the porous environment - 0.23 kcal / (kg 0C); a specific thermal capacity of water - 1 kcal / (kg0C); reference bedded temperature - 210C; initial rese air pressure in layers of 4,0 MPa; factor of heat conductivity of a layer - 1,2 kcal / (m0Chour); water air relation of 0,0018 m3/nm3; a mass content of oxygen in pumped air - 0,23; air density in normal conditions - 1,29 kg/m3; a specific thermal capacity of air - 0.25 kcal / (kg0C); a specific thermal capacity of overheat steam - 0,52 kcal / (kg0C); pressure injection and extracting wells of-7,0 MPa and 1,5 MPa respectively. Frequency rate of foam p =10 -30; concentration of SAS in pumped solution - 0,001.
In table 1 saturation change depending on time of pumping gas is shown at to k= 0,5 mcm2.
Table 1.
The change in intensity depending on time
0w/ q >
, CTq - foam saturation, a water
saturation and a gas saturation respectively;
kq, kw - relative phase permeability of a gas and water phase;
Pw, Pq - water and gas density;
- viscosity of gas and water; WA - water air relation;
Pow, poq - water and gas density respectively under normal conditions.
pw = [1316-(1,02- 10&+3,1(T-15,5)2)'-5]exp[
Pwc (P~Po) ]
Pq = p / [R(273+T)] Mw = (970-T)/(26,5-T + 421),
3,63 10-5 T
ßq
= 0,01829 +
IK-
OA 1 0
- or
if
if
(10)
\(ar-a't)H2-aT)K\-a;)]\ if
0
, if
concen-
Pwc - factor of compressibility of water; c tration of PAV in solution;
Ow*, oq* - connected water - and content of gas; other designations standard.
^^^^ G t, day ^^^^^ Ow • 10-1 Oq •lO-1 CS 10-1
2 4,94 3,43 1,62
4 4,27 2,83 2,89
6 3,71 2,38 3,91
8 3,24 2,03 4,72
10 2,86 1,75 5,39
K
q
In a table 1 we can see that gas-and water saturations decrease eventually, and the foam saturation increases. It is connected with an intensive use of water and gas at formation of foamy system and, in this regard, the volume of a foamy phase increases.
For studying of influence of geologicall and physical parameters on distribution of saturations a series of calculations has been carried out and is established that at joint operation of the isolated layers the foam saturation in a burnt zone of a high-permeability layer is higher, than in a burnt zone of the low-no tight. This
results from the fact that for a case of joint development of layers at pumping solution of a foaming agent in a layer, the big share of solution gets to high-permeability layers, than in low-no tight and in high-permeability layers "god" conditions for intensive foaming (by the Fig. 1 - the Fig. 3) are formed.
Let's note that layers have various permeability and value of these sizes equal 2,0 mcm2, 0,5 mcm2 and 1.0 mcm2 respectively. Calculations are carried out at average temperature of a burnt zone - 800C.
a
Fig 1. Change of saturations (1-foam, 2-water, 3-gas) in a burnt zone of a layer with permeability k=0,5 mcm
a
tjnonth
Fiq 2. Change of saturations (1-foam, 2-water, 3-gas) in a burnt zone of a layer with permeability k=1, 0 mcm2
Fig 3. Change of saturations (1-foam, 2-water, 3-gas) in a burnt zone of a layer with permeability k=2, 0 mcm2
In tables 2, 3 results of calculations of determination of filtration resistance of a burnt zone on layers with the account and without foamy system are presented. Results of calculations show that taking into account foamy system at increase in permeability of a layer, filtration resistance increases. Apparently from tables, filtration resistance in a burnt zone taking into account foamy system increases from 10 to 500 times.
Table 2.
i^il^vii^iAn raci^nn/ta in /«OCA nf iicinn fnnniv ciTcd-mYt c ^lVlDtnil'iii/m3^
Number of the layer t, day I layer(2d) II layer(0,5d) III layer(1d)
2 5,77-10-5 4,14-10-5 3,77-10-5
4 4,26-10-4 7,55 • 10-5 1,1510-4
6 2,72-10-3 1,34-10-4 3,23 10-4
8 4,79-10-2 2,31 10-4 8,52-10-4
10 1,4810-1 3,89-10-4 2,17-10-3
Table 3.
Filtration resistance in case of not using foamy systems (MPaday/m3)
Number of the laver _t, day_
I layer(2d)
II
layer(0,5d)
III layer(ld)
2
4,89-10-6
1,92-10-5
9,65 10-6
4
4,96-10-6
1,93 10-5
9,75 10-6
5,01 10-6
1,94-10-5
9,83 10-6
5,05 10-6
1,95 • 10-5
9,88-10-6
10
5,08-10-6
1,96-10-5
9,93 10-6
6
8
Proceeding from it, it is possible to draw a conclusion that the pumping foamy system leads to alignment of fronts of burning and increase in coverage by thermal influence.
References
1.Arutyunov G.E., Mamalov E.N. Experimental study of the effect of the foam system on the filtration characteristics of the reservoir in the cooled zone behind the combustion front. /There.doc.prof.conf. young scientists and specialists. Baku, 1988, pp.94-95.
2. Galyamov M.N., Rakhimkulov R.Sh. Improving the efficiency of oil wells at a late stage of field development. Moscow, Nedra, 1978.
3. Zheltov Yu.V., Kudinov V.I., Malofeev G.E. "Development of complex deposits of viscous oil in carbonate reservoirs" M., "Oil and Gas", 1997
4. Zazovskiy VF, Stepanov VP. Mathematical model of oil displacement by the method of in-situ combustion. Sb.nauchn.trudov VNII, 1986, vol.96, pp.103-117.
5. Karimov M.F. Operation of underground gas storage. Publishing House "Nedra", 1981
6. Kopanev S.V., Rakovsky N.L. Calculations of the process of oil displacement by steam from a layered heterogeneous reservoir. Sb.nauchn.trudov All-Union
Scientific Research Institute, 1980, issue 71, p. 7. Kudinov V.I., Suchkov B.M. "New technologies for increasing oil production", Samara book publishing house, 1998 78-85 p.
8. Mehmanov RK. On the design scheme of the main technological indicators of oil displacement by steam from layered layers with a row development system // Questions of geology and development of oil, gas and gas condensate fields / Baku, Institute of Problems of Deep Oil and Gas Fields, Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan, 1990, p. .34-42.
9. Mehmanov R.K., Bogopolsky V.O. Modeling and calculation of steam thermal effects on the bottom-hole zone of the oil reservoir. Abstracts of the conference, Ukhta, 2014, pp.141-146.
10. Stepanov V.P., Harchenko V.M., Chusovitina LI. Investigation of thermal effects on the reservoir on mathematical models. Sb.nauch.trudov.-Thermal methods of enhanced oil recovery. Moscow, "Science", 1990, pp.75-85.
11. Tikhomirov V.K. "Foam. Theory and practice of their production and destruction, M.: Chemistry, 1975.
12. Z.H.Raza. Foam in poracs media; characteristics and potensial applications. SPEJ, 1970, 10, N-4, 328-336.
ДИАГНОСТИКА СОСТОЯНИЯ МАГИСТРАЛЬНОГО ГАЗОПРОВОДА С ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЕМ ПОСЛЕДОВАТЕЛЬНЫХ МЕТОДОВ ОБНАРУЖЕНИЯ РАЗЛАДОК
Габибов И.А.
Азербайджанский государственный университет нефти и промышленности
DIAGNOSTICS OF THE CONDITION OF THE MAIN GAS PIPELINE USING THE SEQUENTIAL
DETECTION METHODS
Habibov I.A.
Azerbaijan State University of Oil and Industry
АННОТАЦИЯ
Увеличение коэффициент гидравлического сопротивления потока газа в магистральные трубопроводы вызывается чаще всего образованием гидратных пробок и конденсата, выносами песка, которые приводят к изменению во времени диаметра трубы и, в конечном счёте, к закупорке газопровода.
Настоящая работа посвящена изучению состояния магистрального газопровода с использованием последовательных методов обнаружения разладов.
ABSTRACT
The increase in the hydraulic resistance coefficient of the gas flow to the main pipelines is most often caused by the formation of hydrate plugs and condensate, sand carryovers, which lead to a change in the diameter of the pipe over time and, ultimately, to the blockage of the pipeline.
This paper is devoted to the study of the state of the main gas pipeline using sequential methods of detecting disorders.
Ключевые слова: магистральные трубопроводы, коэффициент гидравлического сопротивления, гид-ратные пробки, стационарный режим, разлад
