CC BY
12
UDC 314.748
Armen M. Tsaturyan Vanadzor State University after H. Tumanyan, Vanadzor special school of profound teaching mathematics
and natural sciences SNPO
ABOUT ONE ADIABATIC INVARIANT OF COUNTRIES' SUSTAINABILITY IN INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION PROCESS
Abstract
The article deals with the issues of preserving the sustainability of countries in the process of international migration. The sociological approach is selected as a research method, which focuses on issues related to the adaptation of migrants to new life conditions.
The presented task is to identify the impact of international migration on the sustainability of countries, while trying to establish some relations between the characteristics which may play a role of invariants of countries' sustainability. Taking into account the nature and monotony of the migration process, with a view to quantitative and qualitative research in the article the method of analogy is first applied, namely, there is a transfer of physical concepts on adiabatic invariants of different systems. Besides, as the characteristic time of the system we have selected the average
time of social adaptation (socialization) of migrants. D
GM = —M = const
Making some calculations, we have obtained the adiabatic invariant ratio D0 GM - an absolute migration coefficient; DM- the total number of migrants increase over the relevant time; Do- growth of the native population). Taking &M = const as a condition for the sus-tainability for the migration processes, we make conclusions and suggestions for different groups of countries. In particular, for the countries that is significant, population is of small size and has a low birth rate, the local people and migrants are of different religions, the sustainability is fragile and fraught with the emergence of social tensions. The results obtained can be applied in the sociological and economic research. There can be more advanced research of migration processes, taking into account many external and internal factors.
Keywords: migration, country sustainability, method of analogy, adiabatic invariant, absolute migration rate.
Introduction
The issues of migration policy management are particularly relevant. In the world research and regulation of migration processes with the help of theoretical approaches and methods requires the development of new research tools, including through simulation (modeling).
Under certain conditions, unjustified and unforeseen international migration can eventually create such an imbalance of public life, which leads to a crisis of social and cultural life of the country.
The purpose of the article is to analyze and identify the set of those parameters, which in some
respects can claim the role of invariants, providing sustainability in certain groups of countries in terms of international migration.
Among the scientific approaches to the research of international migration, we have selected the sociological approach, which focuses on issues related to the adaptation of migrants to new conditions of life. The desire to create a complex sociological theory of migration and to find universal approaches and solutions of problems leads to the need to simulate (model) the migration processes and create a methodology for their application in specific cases.
We state that the migration process for migrants and countries can be considered successful if migrants have eventually adapted to the society. Naturally, it requires a certain time and favorable conditions. For the natives in each country there is always a risk of loss of identity, which can lead to certain tensions. According to H. Tajfel's social identity theory, one of the basic laws of identity is a human desire to achieve positive identity, positive self-image [6].
In considering the sustainability of countries in conditions of international migration, we assume that these countries form a relatively closed system.
Our task is to identify the impact of international migration on the sustainability of countries, while trying to separate characteristics, determining the ratio the invariant of which is the country's sustainability. It is necessary to clearly divide the migration processes that occur continuously and monotonically and those that occur suddenly in a large scale, as a result of various disasters (wars, earthquakes, tsunamis, etc.).
Theoretical background of adiabatic modeling
Currently for forecasting the future development of the society mathematical modeling is widely used. It can be positive, if the selection of parameters and characteristics of the society focuses on the most important ones and considers long time intervals.
We consider that there must be some relations between the key parameters and characteristics of migration processes, which can guarantee the preservation of the relative sustainability and the stability of the country in the process of migration. It concerns the search of a certain invariant with respect to systems within countries in terms of external migration, which will slowly and monotonously change under certain conditions.
Taking into account the essence and monotony of the migration process, with a view to quantitative and qualitative research there has been applied the method of analogy, namely, carried out the transfer of the physical representations of the definition of adiabatic invariants of different systems. In the urban research there is a concept known as' 'gravity model of migration', which is also an analogue of physical representations [5].
Adiabatic invariants are quantities that are stored with high accuracy at a slow change in the system parameters. The slowness of the change in comparison with the characteristic time parameter of the system, as well as its monotony over time is much more than the time parameter. They are two most important points that must first be taken into account when considering the issue.
The adiabatic parameter change means that the characteristic time for this change is much larger
than the characteristic time of the processes occurring in the system. Adiabatic method of modeling migration consequences
As we are considering migration processes in the characteristic time t of the variation of the parameter it is appropriate to choose the time during which at the monotonic flow of migrants their total number is equal to the number of the native population.
N - N
j = 0 1 v 0 M
M (1), where N° is the number of the native population in the country, NoM is the number of migrants already living in the country, ANM is a migration rate: the amount of
arriving per unit of time. Rm = t
As a characteristic time of the system (T) it is convenient to take the average time of social adaptation (socialization) of migrants, which is understood as the process of migrants' assimilation of "behavior, psychological attitudes, social norms and values, knowledge, skills, allowing them to function successfully in society" [4] .
It is known that the presence of the universal laws of development in the history of the society is explained by the suitable adaptive responses in the psyche of people printed by the evolution [2].
The adaptation time T is very relative and highly dependent on many factors, among which the government migration policy, the age of the migrant, religious affiliation, language, place of migration (density of population of a given nationality), employment, etc.
In order to ensure that in most cases migration is adiabatic, we give an example of the Netherlands (population ~ 7 mln., 1,8 million immigrants, the intensity of migration over the last 10 years is approximately 13,000 migrants per year).
For the Netherlands J ~ 1000 years. As an adaptation time we take the average number T = 4 years for the young and 15 years for adults. Then it can be argued thatJ > T , so, the number of migrants varies monotonically and adiabatic.
Now we will try to find the adiabatic invariant for the countries' system with the respect to its sustainability from the point of view of international migration.
For example, at some point the number of natives in some country is N0 and the number of migrants N0M . Let us determine the ratio of the number of migrants to the total population 7, and call it the relative migration rate. n
71 = '0M
For example, for a period of time the migration balance is equal to Nm , and during this time the
N0 + N0M (2)
the mig
natural growth of the native population and migrants already living in the country accordingly D0,
0M . Then the relative migration rate is equal to:
N + D + N
7 = _1 y 0M ^ 0M M_
N + N + D + N + D (3)
0 0M 0 M 0M
If in a particular country at a concrete7 there is no society tension, it can be argued that the
preservation of this value can be an indicator of sustainability in a slow and monotonous change in the number of international migrants. One could argue that it is equivalent to the conservation of adaptation time, and, therefore, social entropy. Out of the stipulation — -2 after simple mathematical transformations and taking into account that n + D — D is the total number of migrants'
M ^0M ~ M
increase over the relevant time, we obtain:
N D
" om — m (4)
N D
The left side of the equation (4) is the ratio of the number of migrants to the general population at some point in time, that is, the absolute rate of migration, and the right is the same factor for the growth of migrants and the native population.
— G — Dm
Since the time interval chosen is arbitrary, then at — the ratio M ~ d should remain constant, i.e. Gm is an adiabatic invariant in the considered migration process, inwhich there is no tension in the society.
From the conditions of adiabatic migration process (t»T) and the existence of the adiabatic invariant (GM — const), one can make a number of conclusions about the sustainability of the country taking into account international migration.
It is considered that the adiabatic system invariant is the dimensional constant in determining entropy. We have found that in migration processes it is expressed in certain respects of quantitative and qualitative characteristics that have the features for a separate country.
Naturally, Ne adiabatic invariant
(Gj for different countries is different and depends on the initial values—0M . For example, for the Netherlands it is equal to about 0.12 or 1/8.
No
Preserving the ratio gm for a definite period of time is equal to the reproduction of migrants in amount dm — gm ' do . For the Netherlands, the natural increase of the population for 2015 was 20,000. It me^is that to preserve GM it is necessary that the migrants' growth per year does not exceed DM — — ■ 20000 « 2500 (migrants). But in 2015 the number of international migrants was above 100,
It breaks the adiabatic condition of the migration process and also dramatically increases the value Gm , thus increasing social entropy and time adaptation of migrants. But if the flow of new migrants nm depends on the governmental migration policy, then the natural growth of migrants already living there is due to the degree of their reproduction rate. Generally, in the developed countries, the balance of the native population is mainly negative, which eventually leads to serious demographic problems. In these countries, the government should in any way stimulate the birth rate and regulate the flow of migrants. Preserving the absolute migration coefficient gm allows synchronizing migration processes with the adaptation period.
There are two approaches to solving the demographic problem: to rely one's own strength, as well as to conduct an open immigration policy.
Now it is important to discuss the issue of minimizing the time of migrants' adaptation
(T )
depending on the features of the migration policy of the country and the nature of the dynamics of population change due to migration.
The desire to minimize the significance of adaptation time is a desire to reduce social tension, depending on the migration and, consequently, lowering of social entropy, caused by migration. A.S.Akhiezer has put forward the idea of the existence of so-called constructive tension, fulfilling the function of overcoming socio-cultural contradictions. The vector of this tension is directed against the disorganization of entropic processes [1, p. 145-146].
Among a number of factors that hinder the rapid adaptation of migrants, and therefore, increase the adaptation time one can determine more significant, such as a religious difference, great age, lack of language skills, migrants' community, employment, inefficient migration policy, etc. In the presence of these obstacles adaptation time and social entropy increase. If the minimum amount of time to adapt in certain favorable terms denotes T0, then in the presence of obstacles this time will increase:
t_T ^ T * *
_ 0 (5), where T - the amount of time that is added to the minimum adaptation time at different obstacles. It is sure that the largest proportion of time T is devoted to religious difference, since it is associated with the ideological aspect of the socio-cultural adaptation.
A large cluster of close ties within immigrant communities helps create vital infrastructure and even political mobilization. It leads to the isolation of groups of migrants with respect to the others and, as a consequence, the formation of an unsustainable system of ties with the local population, uncertain social relations, experiencing fluctuations from quite neighborly to rapidly developing into conflict [8, p. 97-98].
To the host society as a whole, migration can "donate" the centers of social tension in places of high concentration of migrants, local outbreaks of ethnic conflicts, the growth of xenophobia, political radicalism and extremism, provoked by tensions and conflicts [7].
Besides, psychological problems of ethnic migration are most clearly revealed in the process of migrant adaptation to different ethno-cultural environment.
The main argument is based on the psychology of threat perception to the life style and local identity of 'original inhabitants'. The feeling is likely to occur in a relatively more ethno-homoge-neous neighborhood with initial inflow of migrants (real or expected, but supposed) [3, p. 372-403].
Among the government migration policy, which prevents the rapid adaptation of migrants, it is possible to allocate the policy of multiculturalism. The latter exists in both Europe and Russia. It proved to be unsustainable, and now has entered the crisis stage. Relatively successful is the concept of "melting pot," which is opposed to multiculturalism and involves the merging of all cultures into one (USA, Canada etc.).
The forecasting results on adiabatic modeling
To reduce the social entropy, due to migration, countries should carry out "preventive work," namely, to predict and evaluate the characteristics that contribute to the reduction of the adaptation period.
In the context of migration social tensions and demographic imbalance is expected in countries where.
1. Absolute migration coefficient M is of great importance and there are no governmental
migration policy for its reduction.
2. No balanced social entropy exchange with external migration.
3. Population is numerically small and takes a lot of immigrants who have a high degree of fertility.
4. Native population and migrants profess different religions, which often leads to ideological conflicts and prevents adaptation of migrants.
5. Existing policy of multiculturalism promotes infrastructure within immigrant communities, thereby complicating their adaptation and integration into the society.
6. Education system does not contribute to the cultural "integration" of migrants on the basis of universal human values.
A focus of the separate research is the sudden, massive migration. In the case of mass migration, when for a short period of time the flow of forced migrants (refugees) is many times higher than normal, the condition7 > T is no longer valid, the process ceases to be adiabatic. Then, the absolute migration coefficient GM dramatically increases and, consequently, the entropy and time adaptation of migrants. In this case, when the area of migration is not only one country, but the whole region, in the distribution of migrants one should take into account not only the population and area of the countries, but in particular their migrant saturation, that is Gm for them. The greater Gm , the greater risks. In the case of mass immigration concepts transfer, ruling on one side of the border, will automatically entail a reduction in the level of the social consensus.
Conclusion
Thus, using the method of analogy we transfer physical representations of the definition of adiabatic invariants of different systems into the migration processes, which allows modeling and researching these processes at a new qualitative and quantitative level and therefore make a number of proposals and recommendations.
The results can be applied in the sociological and economic research. Under this approach, one can research migration processes more extendedly, taking into account many external and internal factors.
References
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2. Frager R., Fadiman J. (2002) Lichnost: teorii, eksperimenti, uprazhneniya [Personality: theory, experiments, exercises]. SPb: Praym-Evro-Znak.
3. Green D.P., Strolovitch D.Z., & Wong J.S. (1998) Defended Neighborhoods, Integration, and Racially Motivated Crime. American Journal of Sociology, 104(2), 372-403.
4. Meshcherekov B., Zinchenko V. (2004) Sotsializatsiya. Bolshoy psikhologicheskiy slovar [Socialization. Big Psychological Dictionary]. M.: OLMA-PRESS.
5. Rodrigue J.-P., Comtois C. Slack B. (2009) The Geography of Transport Systems. London, New York: Routledge.
6. Tajfel H. (1978). Social Categorization in the Social Psychology of Intergroup relations. London: Academic Press.
7. Vitkovskaya G., Malashenko A. (1999) Vinuzhdennaya migratsiya i migrantofobiya v Rossii [Forced migration and migrant-phobia in Russia] Neterpimost v Rossii: starie i novie fobii [Intolerance in Russia: Old and New Phobias]. M.: Centr Karnegi, 151-191.
8. Yudina T.N. (2006) Sotsiologiya migratsii [Sociology of Migration]. M.: Akademicheskiy proect, 97-98.
About the author
Armen M. Tsaturyan (Republic of Armenia, Vanadzor, 65/21 Tigran Metsi St.), Doc Sc. (Pedagogics), Professor RANH, Associate Professor, Physics Department, Vanadzor State University after H. Tumanyan; Director of SNPO Vanadzor Special School of Profound Teaching Mathematics and Natural Sciences (3 77200 Republic of Armenia, Loriysky Region, Vanadzor, 100 Vardanants St.); e-mail: [email protected]); tel.: +374 91208126
