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1СОЦИОЛОГИЯ. ПОЛИТОЛОГИЯ. МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫЕ ОТНОШЕНИЯ
Политология. Международные отношения
UDC 327.39
Li Menglong, He Qiuxuan
A STUDY OF THE IMPACT OF RUSSIA-U.S. RELATIONS AFTER THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF CHINESE SCHOLARS
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the complexity of the conflict between Russia and the West has become more and more serious, with far-reaching effects on global politics, economy and military affairs. As a direct and indirect participant in this conflict, Russia and the United States, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has an important impact on their relations. Chinese scholars are very concerned about the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the direction of Russia-U.S. relations, and discuss the post-cold war period, the reasons why the Ukraine issue affects the development of Russia-U.S. relations, and the prospects for the development of Russia-U.S. relations after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It is believed that the structural contradictions existing in the post-cold war period in Russia-US relations, mainly manifested in the competition between Russia and the United States for the dominance of Russia's neighboring regions, the difference in the development path between Russia and the United States and the security dilemma; the geopolitical significance of Ukraine, the post-cold war period of Russia and Ukraine Cold War thinking continued to influence the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the Russian-US relations is of great significance; as well as the strategic goals of Russia and the United States, etc., the impact of the Russian-Ukraine conflict on the Russian-US relations after the conflict. The impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on Russia-U.S. relations is analyzed and researched.
Keywords: The Russian-Ukrainian conflict;Russia-America relationship;Ukraine crisis
DOI: 10.35634/2587-9030-2024-8-1-49-59
For citation:
Li Menglong, He Qiuxuan. A study of the impact of Russia-U.S. relations after the Russia-Ukraine conflict from the perspective of Chinese scholars // Bulletin of Udmurt University. Sociology. Political Science. International Relations. 2024. Vol. 8, iss. 1. P. 49-59. https://doi.org/10.35634/2587-9030-2024-8-1-49-59 (In Engl.).
Introduction
Starting on February 24, 2022, after Russia launched a special military operation against Ukraine in the Donbass region, all parties around the Russian-Ukrainian conflict launched a comprehensive game, the post-Cold War era of local wars with historical significance has since begun, behind the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is actually a game between the great powers, the war between Russia and Ukraine is the post-Cold War era since the world's development as the theme of the watershed, Russia and Ukraine The war between Russia and Ukraine is a watershed in the world's development since the post-cold war era, and Russia and Ukraine are the direct combatants in this war, and the conflict has had a far-reaching and long-lasting impact on the direction of the development of Russia and Ukraine and has continuously worsened the relationship between the countries concerned. Relations between Russia and the United States have also deteriorated as a result of the multiple impacts of the Russo-Ukrainian war, and the re-ideologization, re-militarization, and re-conglomeration triggered by the conflict have dealt a major blow to global governance mechanisms.
China-US-Russia trilateral relationship is one of the most important set of trilateral relations in today's world, after the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, the United States and Russia's long-term surface stability between the state rupture, the infrastructure is broken, geopolitical thinking returns, with China's comprehensive national strength gradually improved, the United States slowed down the development of the gap between the United States and the United States is gradually shrinking relatively, the United States is worried about this, China threat theory and other arguments to form a consensus in the country, the United States in the economic and scientific and technological sanctions against China, China-United States relations once dropped to the freezing point, and there are even arguments that China and the United States have begun a new cold war, the world situation in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is once again turbulent, and will bring a profound and complex impact on China-United States relations. Chinese scholars are highly concerned about the direction of Russia-US relations after the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Method
This paper utilizes literature research, interdisciplinary research, systematic analysis, and historical research. Literature research method. This paper will use Chinese databases such as CNKI and Wanfang, English databases such as Web of science, domestic and foreign mainstream news websites, clients, and paper books in libraries to learn about Chinese scholars' research on this area, and organize and analyze these materials through the literature research method.
Interdisciplinary research method. After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, all parties are engaged in various games around Russia and Ukraine, and this conflict has had an impact on the world's politics, economy, military and other aspects; in order to comprehensively explain the process of the development of this conflict, the impact of the conflict, and the measures and strategies adopted by all parties, it is necessary to analyze and study it through an interdisciplinary approach, combining knowledge of such disciplines as international relations, international political economy, foreign affairs, national security and so on.
Systems Analysis Approach. U.S.-Russian bilateral relations, in the context of the Cold War, subject to the constraints of the bipolar system, changes in bilateral relations will have a multifaceted impact, although with the end of the Cold War, this constraints on the changes gradually weakened, but the overall framework of the relationship has not changed, and in the U.S.-Russia, Russia-Ukraine conflict, the impact of the impact of the conflict comes from all sides, will affect the political, economic and security issues, so the analysis of the problem needs to be in the overall. So the problem needs to be analyzed in the overall framework of the links and interactions between the United States and Russia to be analyzed and studied.
Historical research method. The development of U.S.-Russian relations has gone through many stages, and there are both transformations of roles and status. The U.S.-Russian relations are sorted out and studied according to the order of historical development, seeking causal clues in the changes in the relations, analyzing the reasons for the current situation, and speculating on the direction of future development.
Conclusion
Russia-Ukraine conflict on the Eurasian geopolitical security situation has brought far-reaching and long-lasting impact on the international system has also caused a certain impact, Russia and the United States in the war were direct and indirect participants, the outbreak of the conflict and the development of the two sides of the relationship between the development of an important impact, the Chinese scholars are very concerned about this, and on the impact of the conflict in Russia and Ukraine on Russia-Ukraine relations to conduct a study from the cause of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, The Chinese scholars are very concerned about this and study the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on Russian-American relations, analyzing the reasons for the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the reasons for the impact of the Ukrainian issue on Russian-American relations, and the strategic choices of the United States and Russia and the impact of future development.
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, relations between the United States and Russia have further deteriorated, and on the political front, the United States has opened sanctions and counter-sanctions with Russia, halted normal diplomatic exchanges between the two sides, regarded Russia as a representative of revisionism, called on its allies to further isolate and sanction Russia, and strengthened its closeness with European countries. They call on their allies to further isolate and sanction Russia, strengthen their ties with European countries, and push for deeper military and economic cooperation to weaken Russia's influence in Europe. J. Wang of the Institute of Chinese History at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences argues in An Analysis of the Spillover Effects of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict in East Asia that the United States will enhance the globalization of its regional alliances, portray China and Russia as challengers to the order, build a "collective Western" identity, combine NATO with its Indo-Pacific strategy [10, c, 25-33], and push for a globalization of the Alliance, so as to realize the globalization of NATO and the "globalization" of Russia. Globalization forcing small and medium-sized countries in the middle ground to choose sides. Russia's global influence is greatly reduced, and its national strength has been seriously weakened, which not only reduces the possibility of equal dialog with the U.S., but also further reduces its ability to set the global agenda, and further reduces its right to speak in international multilateral affairs. L. Zhao, J. Liu, C. Ding, M.Q. Xu, and Y.Q. Shao mentioned in Russia-Ukraine Conflict and International Political and Economic Game that in the trilateral game between China, the United States, and Russia, Russia is gradually weakening in the triangular game, and the space for Russia and the United States to carry out equal exchange is narrowing, and the role of Russia as
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a key third party in the competition between China and the United States is being questioned. [16, c, 5678+158-159].
On the economic front, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States and its western allies carried out severe sanctions against Russia, freezing Russian assets, restricting Russia's imports and exports, cutting off Russia's supply chain, blocking financial transactions, and removing Russia from the international funds clearing system, as well as cutting off the energy economy that Russia relies on for its development, exporting energy to Europe, and realizing in all respects the decoupling of Russia and and economically tying up Europe. The development of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict did not end in a blitzkrieg manner as Putin expected, and the Russian economy was in trouble. Although Russia took a series of antisanctions measures to avoid the economic internal cycle leading to trouble, the Russian economy has undoubtedly suffered a serious and long-term blow.
In terms of national security, Russia had hoped to strengthen its absolute influence in the post-cold war space through the Russia-Ukraine conflict, safeguard its national security on the Western Front, obtain a geopolitical security buffer, thereby realizing an equal dialogue with the West and solving the problems of its security dilemma, geopolitical dilemma and development dilemma, but the conflict in Russia-Ukraine has stimulated the defense and military investment of European countries, brought NATO out of brain death, and made NATO more attractive. The United States, with the help of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, has carried out information warfare on a large scale to publicize the threat of Russia in order to realize its goal of control of Europe by a lone European and to promote global public opinion from the anti-war to anti-Russia transfer, and through proxy wars will continue to expand the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, lasting, and ultimately realize the isolation of Russia.
Discussion
Chinese Scholars' Perceptions of Russia-US Relations in the Post-Cold War Era.There are many scholars who believe that the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a general outbreak of the conflict between Russia and the West. Prof. S.L. Feng of Central China Normal University mentioned in Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Global Transformation that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is closely related to the issue of "transformation", and that the current Russia-Ukraine conflict is to a certain extent a continuation of the global transformation and its controversy. [2, c, 84-98] M.L. Guo of Central China Normal University (CCNU) analyzes Russia's Prestige Motivation in Decision-Making in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict, which puts psychological prestige motivation as an intermediate variable in decision-making, which strengthens Russia's perception of the threat of the situation, and triggers it to adjust the ranking of its strategic interests. [4] H.Y. Bi of Shanghai International Studies University mentions that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States has never stopped squeezing Russia's living space, and the successive NATO eastward expansion and the various rounds of color revolutions in the post-Soviet space, in fact, behind the United States can not be ignored, but this time, Washington underestimated Moscow's determination, and even if the U.S. and Russia are heading towards a full-scale confrontation, Russia will not be able to compromise and give in. [1, c, 127-156].
Chinese scholars have mentioned that the structural contradictions between Russia and the United States are an important reason why the relationship between the two countries has never really improved, making it difficult for cooperation between Russia and the United States to play the role of ballast in the bilateral relationship. J. Zhang of the Foreign Affairs College believes that the structural contradictions between Russia and the United States are mainly reflected in the two sides of Russia's dominance of the surrounding areas, after the end of the Cold War, the United States continues to promote the process of NATO's eastward expansion and the European Union's eastward expansion, and constantly compressed Russia's strategic space, and Russia's resistance to the United States to the spread of the Western system to the majority of the countries of Eastern Europe, to maintain its own independence and dominance in the surrounding areas. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia still regarded the CIS region as its traditional sphere of influence, and as the United States continued to incorporate Central and Eastern European countries into the Western system, Russia's political influence in Central and Eastern Europe greatly weakened, and the United States and the European countries continued to expand, competing with Russia for the leadership of the CIS region, which was strongly resisted by Russia, and ultimately triggered an armed conflict between Russia and Georgia in 2008, the Ukraine crisis in 2014, and the Crimean crisis in 2014. The Ukrainian crisis and the Crimea incident in 2014 once again led to the relationship between Russia and the United States to fall into the freezing point, plunging into a long-term confrontation.
In the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Latin American Studies Y. Lou translation of Peace and development: Russia-Ukraine conflict in the context of the theme of the times, mentioned that after the end of the Cold War, the United States pushed NATO to carry out a large-scale eastward expansion, with the subsequent Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and other countries to join NATO one after another to become a member of the NATO, the strategic space of Russia used to be squeezed in Eastern Europe, and in 2016. NATO's Warsaw summit released a signal encouraging Ukraine, Georgia and other countries to move closer to NATO, taking advantage of the Russophobia [11, c, 89-95+119-120] stirred up by the Ukrainian crisis in Eastern European countries, frequently conducting military exercises with Eastern European allies, and later began to provide Ukraine with lethal weapons such as anti-tank missile systems. Russia has also increased its armament in the Black Sea region to counteract NATO. The competition between Russia and the United States in the CIS region has intensified, with the United States utilizing NATO's eastward expansion to strengthen political and military relations with the CIS countries, utilizing European Union (EU) cooperation to strengthen economic cooperation with the CIS countries, and continuing to democratize the CIS countries. Russia, on the other hand, is engaged in political, economic, military and anti-epidemic activities with the CIS countries in order to counteract the democratic transformation of the United States and to strengthen its dominant position in the CIS region.
There are also differences in the path of development between Russia and the United States. The United States has long hoped to implement a Western political and economic system in Russia, while Russia prefers a political system more suited to its own traditions and national conditions. Promoting Russia's political and economic reforms and the implementation of Western political and economic systems have been important elements of the U.S. policy toward Russia under successive U.S. administrations, and the U.S. has carried out all kinds of democratic reforms in Russia, supported Russia's democrat politicians and political parties, interfered in Russia's internal affairs, and influenced the general elections and important personnel appointments. After Vladimir Putin came into power, Russia gradually abandoned the Western model of universal democracy and put forward the idea of sovereign democracy, emphasizing the maintenance of political sovereignty and taking a path of development in line with its own traditions. In recent years, the concept of sovereign democracy has gradually matured in Russia, and Russia has also used the concept of sovereign democracy to defend itself against and counter the color revolutions orchestrated by the United States in Russia and the CIS region. The concept of sovereign democracy is maturing in Russia.
In 2012, Vladimir Putin returned to power, triggering U.S. criticism of Russia's democratic politics, U.S. support for opposition demonstrations in Russia, and Russia's introduction of the Nonprofit Organizations Amendment Act to resist U.S. interference in its internal affairs, and Russia's human rights counterattacks against the U.S. through the Snowden affair in 2013. The U.S. then canceled a meeting between the two presidents scheduled for September, deepening the conflict between the two countries. In 2014, after the Ukraine crisis, the United States increased for Russia's "democratic transformation" efforts to increase the financial assistance for Russian nongovernmental organizations, in 2016, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security openly accused Russia of hacking into the U.S. network, stealing information and trying to influence the U.S. presidential election, Russia denied it. But the United States imposed sanctions on Russia and further restricted Russia's information dissemination in the U.S. Russia considers Voice of America, Radio Liberty and other media outlets as foreign agents, and the confrontation between Russia and the U.S. in the democratic politics spills over to the media and information field competition, and the main body of the competition spreads from the elite to the public.
The 2020 constitutional amendment in Russia has triggered a new round of criticism of Russian politics from the U.S. The U.S. had issued an affirmation on the amendments to the Russian referendum election law, arguing that there were attempts to manipulate the results of the vote and expressing concern about the possibility of Putin's continued reelection until 2036. The chairman of the Russian State Duma's international affairs committee responded that this was a direct U.S. interference in Russia's internal affairs. The U.S., even in the face of a new coronavirus epidemic, has invested significant financial and human resources to support protests against the amendment in Russia.
There is also a security dilemma between Russia and the United States. There are large differences in historical perceptions between Russia and the United States, and the two sides have different perceptions of their own and each other's identities, and because of the antagonistic thinking of the Cold War and the actual Russian-American military standoff in Eastern Europe, resulting in a relationship that, though sometimes close, ultimately had difficulty escaping the fate of a low walk. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia
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inherited most of the Soviet Union's international relations and international law status, for the United States, Russia is approximately equal to the Soviet Union, and the United States gained the victory of the Cold War, Russia is the loser of this competition, [9] while Russia believes that it is the Soviet Union and the United States jointly chose to end the Cold War, and that the two sides are equal relations, and that the United States needs to respect Russia, and to talk to Russia on an equal footing. Although Russia's power and international influence have relatively declined compared to the Soviet era, the United States still sees it as a challenger to the regional and international order, and sanctions and suppresses it.
The Ukrainian crisis has led to a renewed armed confrontation between Russia and the United States in Eastern Europe, and has also led to the deployment of strategic weapons by both countries that are not subject to arms control treaties, ultimately leading to an intensification of the conflict between the two countries on the issue of missile defense. After the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, once again inspired the European countries fear of Russia, the United States to take advantage of this opportunity, in Eastern Europe to intensify the construction of anti-missile systems, a certain degree of deterrence against Russia, Russia also strengthened its strategic nuclear forces, and accelerated the development of its new missile and air defense systems. The Russian-Ukrainian military confrontation has intensified, and its intense ideological and geopolitical conflicts have further intensified hostility, thus reinforcing their respective military confrontations and ultimately plunging them into a vicious circle. The United States continues to promote the eastward expansion of NATO and the eastward movement of military facilities, posing a certain threat to Russia's security, Russia's unfriendly behavior to take a tough counterattack, and strive to maintain its security, Russia and the United States military confrontation to the field of strategic stability, ultimately leading to the abandonment of the INF Treaty, the impact of the international arms control treaty system.
As for Chinese scholars' thoughts about Ukrainian problems affecting Russia-US relations. Ukraine has undergone a long process of political consolidation as a result of geopolitical changes, and has experienced three struggles for independence in its history. International geopolitical changes have provided objective conditions for Ukraine's struggle for independence, but the key to Ukraine's independence what really important is its own development, especially in the awakening of its national consciousness. Hans Morgenthau mentioned in "Interstate Politics" that all politics, whether political or international, seeks to maintain power, increase power or show power.Ukraine, which is now under the gaze of the great powers, is in a state of flux because of the rivalry between the great powers.
Ukraine and Russia have deep historical ties, Kievan Rus' is considered to be the common cultural birthplace of the two sides, Ukraine has always been Russia's main trading partners and energy suppliers, in the Soviet Union, Ukraine is the Soviet Union's important breadbasket and industrial base, the Ukrainian state in the formation of the process of the country was deeply influenced by Russia, and Russia has always regarded Ukraine as the traditional scope of its vision. Economically, Russia's important pipeline for transporting oil and natural gas and other energy sources to Europe will pass through Ukraine, which is an important part of Russia's energy economy. For Political aspect, Ukraine's unique geographic location is very important for Russia to maintain its national security, and after the collapse of the USSR, with the acceleration of NATO's eastward expansion and the process of European integration, Ukraine, as a strategic frontier, is a buffer between Russia and NATO. East and south of the Crimea and Sevastopol is Russia's access to the Black Sea, as an independent Ukraine or rely on the West of Ukraine will block Russia's southern access to the sea, Russia and Ukraine have more than 2,000 kilometers of land borders, the nearest place between the two countries is only 500 kilometers from Moscow, if Ukraine is completely westernized, it will become a strategic stronghold for the West to contain Russia, and Russia cannot accept the loss of Ukraine.
In Zbigniew Brzezinski's The Great Game of Chess, it has been mentioned that Ukraine is in a strategically important position in the overall Eurasian chess game, and that its status as an independent state is favorable to the change of Russia because Ukraine is a geopolitical pivot state. Ukraine's unique geographic location predisposes it to be the focus of great power rivalry. It is an important buffer zone between NATO's eastward expansion and the European Union's eastward expansion, and as a crossroads of the Eurasian continent, it is difficult to maintain neutrality amidst the forests of chaos as it bears the encirclement of attention from the great powers.
The continuing influence of post-Cold War cold war thinking is also an important reason. The U.S. sees Ukraine as an important zone on the U.S. Eurasian chessboard, capable of starting negotiations with the EU and NATO at any time between 2015-2010. Z.X. Yang of the Diplomatic Academy mentioned in his Study of Russia-U.S. Relations in the Context of the Ukraine Crisis that for Russia, a great power straddling the Eurasian
continent, it is inevitable that it will consider its strategic needs in terms of geopolitics, and that after the end of the Cold War, Russia regarded the CIS as its traditional political sphere of influence, considering the CIS as an important pillar in the realization of Russia's great-power strategy and the need to continually increase its influence in the CIS in order to achieve its global dominance. Ukraine is in the middle of the Eurasian continent, and has important geopolitical significance for Russia. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, NATO has been expanding eastward, and has gradually built up an arc strategic defense line against Russia [14], gradually expanding the security threat to Russia, and the U.S. has taken Ukraine as an important strategic pivot to contain Russia, which is an important strategic point for the U.S. to dissolve the CIS and weaken Russia's chess game. It is an important step in the U.S. game of dismantling the CIS and weakening Russia. Ukraine was pressured by the big powers at the same time, the internal pro-Russian and pro-European forces gradually split, in the two sides of the power struggle Ukraine gradually lost the center of gravity, and ultimately led to the crisis turned into a war.
After Biden assumed the presidency in 2021, his policy toward Russia, compared with the Trump administration, gradually returned to the U.S. strategic community's perception of Russia, Biden continued the Trump era's strategic judgment on the intensification of great power competition, on January 26, 2021, the U.S. and Russia signed an agreement to extend the validity of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (NSART) by five years, indicating that the two sides retained a certain degree of possibility for their respective cooperation, but the Russian and U.S. However, there is still an unbridgeable contradiction between Russia . The Biden's policy toward Russia has reverted to the mainstream view of the Washington elite establishment, with a series of unfriendly remarks toward Russia and the strengthening of a number of sanctions, and the Transitional National Security Strategy Guidance released by the Biden administration in 2021 states that "Russia remains unwavering in its desire to increase its global influence and play a destabilizing role on the world stage".[6], which runs counter to U.S. global interests and expectations of Russia. The Biden administration inherited the Obama administration's policy of maintaining its military repression of Russia as a means of deterring and organizing Russia's expansion. From 2006 to 2021, the U.S. continued to conduct joint military exercises with Ukraine, and on November 10, 2021, the U.S. and Ukraine signed the U.S.Ukraine Strategic Partnership Charter, which strengthens the U.S.-Ukraine strategic partnership, and which is partly aimed at Russia.
In terms of ideology, the U.S. has also persistently hoped to promote the democratization of Russia, and the U.S. has always invested a great deal of resources in supporting the opposition in Russia and instilling Western ideology in the Russian masses in the hope of shaking the political foundations of Russia, and in 2021 the U.S. released a report on the timing and routes of marches in major cities in Russia in the U.S. embassy in Russia. major cities with marching times and routes as a way to mobilize the masses to participate in demonstrations in support of Navalny.
For Strategic goals and measures of the Russian and Ukrainian sides in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, some Chinese scholars mentioned that the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is regarded as a general outbreak of the long-standing conflicts between Russia and the West, which is manifested as a direct confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, and the United States and the West are not directly involved in it, but they have provided Ukraine with support behind the scenes in the form of military intelligence, arms assistance and economic assistance, etc. The United States is always behind the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the conflict has a strong color of a proxy war. Chinese scholars pay more attention to the strategic goals and measures taken by Russia and the United States in this conflict.
Russia's military action against Ukraine has complex strategic objectives. First of all, in terms of civilization, Ukraine is the birthplace of Slavic civilization, so Ukraine means the origin of civilization and history for Russia, Russia and Ukraine were once one in history, Russia can not be indifferent to the future of Ukraine. At the national security level, Russia's primary goal is to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, which has traditionally been considered a buffer zone between Russia and Western Europe and NATO, but NATO has continued to expand eastward and has rejected Russia's application to join NATO four times, disregarding Russia's concerns about its own security and repeatedly compressing Russia's strategic living space, touching Russia's sensitive areas. In 2021, at an enlarged meeting of the Russian Foreign Ministry's Council of Ministers, Putin put forward the security guarantee initiative to let the U.S. and the West know about Russia's strategic red lines through counter-containment and engagement, especially when it comes to NATO. In the same year, Russia submitted to the U.S. the draft texts of the Agreement on Security Safeguards for Russia and NATO Member States and the Russia-U.S. Security Safeguards Treaty, in which the U.S. was asked to give up the
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possibility of admitting Ukraine to NATO and to stop NATO's continued eastward expansion. Russia hoped to reopen the stalled Russia-U.S. Strategic Stabilization Talks. However, Russia's concerns were not taken seriously by the United States and its NATO allies, which led Russia to do everything in its power to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, which eventually led to the outbreak of the conflict.
Second, Russia needs the United States to recognize Russia's status as a great power and establish an equal Russian-American partnership. Since the end of the Cold War, interactions between the United States and Russia have actually been on an unequal footing. Russia achieved economic recovery and growth in 20002007 with the help of high international oil prices, and after the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the Russian decision-makers made the judgment that the strength of the United States had declined in relative terms, and that the era of Western dominance had ended, and that Russia would have a great deal to do in the future. Professor Y.J. Feng of Fudan University mentioned in The World Order and Russia's Strategic Choice in the Post-Epidemic Era that the indiscriminate attack of the global New Crown Pneumonia in 2020 had caused various countries around the world to receive different degrees of impact, and that the comprehensive strength of the United States and Europe had been affected to a certain extent, and that Russia believed that it would alleviate the strategic pressures it had received, and that at the same time China also suffered a large impact from the C.N.C.P. epidemic, the global industrial chain was reorganized, the trade war with the United States led to the shrinking of China's external market, the relationship with the West deteriorated, Russia's East-West pressure was relieved, the international governance system was damaged to varying degrees, for Russia, a fragmented [3, c, 6] world is more conducive to Russia's development. From the 2008 Russo-Georgian war, the 2014 Ukrainian crisis and the deployment of troops to Crimea, the 2020 Belarusian civil unrest, the 2022 events in Kazakhstan, and the special military operation against Ukraine, the ultimate goal of Russia is to strengthen its influence in the post-Soviet space, to regain its great power status, and to realize its grand strategy, which requires the West to enter into a dialogue on an equal footing with Russia.
After the end of the Cold War, the U.S. regarded Russia as the successor to the Soviet Union, that Russia's behavior may trigger Russia's restoration of the Soviet Union, so Russia has taken sanctions against Russia in many ways, and this time Russia is directly in the Ukraine to carry out military operations, the United States will take measures to weaken Russia's strength and influence. Biden has said that Russia needs to be responsible for its invasion of Ukraine, the United States and its allies will punish Russia's behavior, the intensity of the punishment depends on the scale of Russia's "invasion". [12] Since the outbreak of the conflict, the U.S. and its allies have provided Ukraine with assistance, including weapons support, and at the same time have strengthened sanctions against Russia, including individual, corporate, and entity sanctions, control of Russian exports, and restrictions on U.S. dollar settlements, and crackdowns on Russia's economic and trade, scientific and technological, energy, and financial sectors. On February 26, 2022, the U.S. announced that it would impose devastating sanctions on Russia, working with U.S. allies to exclude several major Russian banks from the international clearing system and isolate Russia from the international financial system and the global economy. [7] In addition to expelling diplomats from Russia's Permanent Mission to the United Nations and tightening sanctions against Russian financial institutions, Putin's daughters and other key individuals, on April 8, the United States terminated trade relations with Russia and Belarus. [13] By May 19, U.S. aid to Ukraine totaled more than 53 billion U.S. dollars, [5] U.S. aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia further intensified the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the outbreak of Russian-American conflicts. In the information network, the United States uses its own advantages to help Ukraine to carry out information and public opinion war, to combat the influence of Russian public opinion, the United States uses Facebook, Google and Twitter and other global social media, calling on the world to take tough sanctions against Russia and attitude, to combat the determination of the Russian masses to fight, inciting the sympathy of the people of the world for Ukraine and the boycott of Russia, and the boycott of Russia, the United States is the only country that has ever been able to achieve this.
J. Zhang from the Foreign Affairs College believes that the United States also hopes to use this opportunity to further strengthen its ties with its European allies. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the U.S. has contacted its European allies, blocked the economic ties between Russia and Europe through sanctions, and strengthened the economic ties between the U.S. and Europe. [17, c, 23-38+135-136] After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Biden promised to increase the delivery of natural gas to Germany as a substitute for the Nord Stream 2 project, realizing the export of energy to Europe and strengthening Europe's economic dependence on the United States. Russia's special military operations have further stimulated Russophobia in European countries, and NATO member states believe that the security
situation in Europe has been radically changed, requiring long-term and lasting strategic adjustments, which has led to a renewed buildup of NATO, and a strengthening of the U.S. alliance system due to the stimulation of Russia.
The direction of development of relations between Russia and the United States after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. J. Zhang of the Foreign Affairs College also mentioned that after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the international situation has escalated, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has seriously intensified the relationship between Russia and the United States while worsening the relationship between the two countries concerned, and the U.S. has further intensified the contradictions between Russia and the United States and worsened the Russian-U.S. relations by providing all kinds of support, including arms, to Ukraine, in the NATO eastward expansion in this conflict. L. Yang of Nankai University mentioned that the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis is the total outbreak of the game between Russia and the United States in the region for a long time, although the weakened strength of Russia is difficult to return to the bipolar confrontation when the Cold War, but the conflict in Ukraine will make the two countries of Russia and the United States of America for a long time to be at loggerheads. [15, c, 86] Y.Z. Xu of PLA Daily mentioned that the United States led its Western allies to press Russia step by step in the geopolitical field, challenging Russia's security red line, and the situation in Ukraine has reduced the relationship between Russia and the United States and Russia-Europe to the freezing point, and the United States added fuel to the flames to make the conflict long-lasting and complicated. F.H. Liu of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences mentioned that the structural contradictions between Russia and the United States have not yet been resolved, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to the emergence of new problems between Russia and the United States, and the already tense U.S.-Russia relations will remain in a state of confrontation. [8, c, 68-87+132] After Biden came to power, there are many challenges in improving U.S.-Russia relations, while the Russian government will respond with a dual approach of counteraction and cooperation. There are also scholars who maintain a more optimistic view of Russia-US relations, such as Z.X. Yang, who mentioned that the Ukrainian crisis is an important turning point in Russia-US bilateral relations, and that although Russia and the United States are struggling fiercely, the conflicts between the two sides are limited to a controllable range under the international context of economic globalization and political multipolarity.
The Russian-Ukrainian war has been mired in a prolonged quagmire, and as a result, Russia has been subjected to severe political, economic and diplomatic sanctions by the West, which have dealt a heavy blow to its strength. Economically, U.S. sanctions against Russia have been more severe than the war itself, and have had a huge impact on the global economy, with inflation and global bankruptcies hitting record highs in many of the world's economies as a result of the sanctions war between the two sides. Humanitarian crises have been exacerbated, tens of millions of people have been displaced by the war, and global famine and poverty have become more acute. At the same time, Russia will fall into relative isolation, Russia's international image will be sharply damaged, global influence will further decline, the security environment on the Western Front further deterioration of its special military action triggered NATO on Russia's fear and hostility, and accelerated Sweden and Finland to join the NATO movement, so that the brain dead NATO in the face of European security issues to regain attraction. NATO has regained its appeal in the face of European security issues. At the same time, Russia's economy has suffered a heavy blow, the United States, Europe and a series of neutral countries imposed severe sanctions on Russia, so that Russia in the international supply chain and the world economic system has been marginalized, set off a wave of de-Russianization on a global scale, and even during the Cold War were not interrupted on the Russian-European energy relations will be facing the risk of rupture, affected by the European energy crisis. As a result of the energy crisis, energy conservation and emission reduction in Europe will be hindered, making it more difficult for the world to address climate change and energy issues.
Politically, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022 has led to continued confrontation between Russia and the U.S., and bilateral relations have been particularly tense. Russia's behavior has seriously impacted the U.S.-led international system, and the future global order and global governance will face a serious crisis. Geopolitical conflicts have led to a further deepening of global insecurity, and Russia and the U.S. will be in a decoupled state in more areas in the future. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has posed serious challenges to the global energy system, food security, industrial chain cooperation and other areas, but any solution to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will ultimately need to be reached by Russia and the United States. For Russia, Ukraine cannot become a member of NATO and needs to prevent the U.S. from further expanding NATO eastward to the Russian border. The United States, on the other hand, will use the centrifugalization of Russia
СОЦИОЛОГИЯ. ПОЛИТОЛОГИЯ. МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫЕ ОТНОШЕНИЯ
brought about by the Russo-Ukrainian conflict to further strengthen the internal unity of the Atlantic security system and increase its influence in the Atlantic Alliance system. Russia will be further marginalized by the United States. Y.J. Feng believes that Russia originally wanted to strengthen its dominant power in the postSoviet space through military action against Russia, but it did not work out as expected, and Russia's own strength is affected by its ambition boomerang, and its leadership in the post-Soviet space has shrunk considerably. Its ability to set the global agenda has been weakened, and its voice in international affairs has been reduced, which makes it difficult to realize its hope for an equal dialogue with the United States. The ultimate goal of the United States is to see Russia lose on the battlefield, end up in economic distress, and compromise in this political game.
Changes in Russia-Ukraine relations as a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will also have certain spillover effects on China. The U.S. views China as its most important strategic competitor, and on May 26, 2022, Blinken said that the challenge posed by China to the international order is the most serious long-term challenge. Minister Y. Wang mentioned that the U.S. view of the world, China, and U.S.-China relations has shown serious deviations, indicating that although the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been able to divert U.S. attention to a certain extent, it has not changed the direction of U.S. strategy, and that the Asia-Pacific region is set to return to the center of international politics, bringing the conflict eastward, NATO countries believe that the deepening of the strategic partnership between China and Russia, and attempts to undermine the rule-based international order, and NATO's values and interests, the United States to further implement the Asia-Pacific NATO, the United States continues to intensify the construction of its Asia-Pacific security system, and attempting to push forward the process of NATO's globalization with the help of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
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The article was received by the editorial office on 09/19/2023 Submitted for review on 09/20/2023 Recommended for publication on 10/14/2023
Li Menglong, Ph.D, assistant professor School of International and Public Affairs Jilin University
No.2699 Qianjin Street, Changchun City, Chin, 130012 E-mail: [email protected]
He Qiuxuan, Postgraduate student Institute for International Studies Wuhan University
No.299 Bayi Street, Wuhan City, China, 430072 E-mail: [email protected]
Ли Мэнлун, Хэ Цюсюань
ИССЛЕДОВАНИЕ ВЛИЯНИЯ РОССИЙСКО-АМЕРИКАНСКИХ ОТНОШЕНИЙ
ПОСЛЕ РОССИЙСКО-УКРАИНСКОГО КОНФЛИКТА С ТОЧКИ ЗРЕНИЯ КИТАЙСКИХ УЧЕНЫХ
DOI: 10.35634/2587-9030-2024-8-1-49-59
С момента начала российско-украинского конфликта противоречия между Россией и Западом становятся всё серьезней, что оказывает сильное влияние на мировую политику, экономику и военную сферу. Россия и Соединенные Штаты - прямой и косвенный участники этого конфликта, поэтому российско-украинский конфликт существенно влияет на их отношения. Китайские ученые очень обеспокоены влиянием российско-украинского конфликта на развитие российско-американских отношений, изучают период после окончания холодной войны, анализируют причины, почему украинский вопрос влияет на российско-американские отношения, и перспективы развития этих отношений после завершения российско-украинского конфликта. Ученые полагают, что структурные противоречия, существовавшие в период после окончания холодной войны в российско-американских отношениях, в основном проявлялись в конкуренции между Россией и Соединенными Штатами за доминирование в соседних с Россией регионах, в том, что Россия и Соединенные Штаты выбрали разные пути развития, и в разном подходе этих стран к решению вопроса безопасности. Украина имеет большое геополитическое значение, и тот факт, что после окончания холодной войны в Украине продолжили существовать идеи и мышление времен холодной войны, способствовало российско-украинскому конфликту, который существенно влияет на российско-американские отношения. Также анализируются стратегические цели России и Соединенных Штатов, последствия российско-украинского конфликта на отношения России с Соединенными Штатами.
Ключевые слова: российско-украинский конфликт; российско-американские отношения; украинский кризис.
СПИСОК ИСТОЧНИКОВ И ЛИТЕРАТУРЫ
1. Bi H.Y. Strategic Triangle or Trilateral Interaction: China-U.S.-Russia Relations in the New Era[J]. International 0bservation,2022(03):127-156. (In Chinese)
2. Feng S.L. The Ukraine Crisis under the Perspective of International Order Transformation-Analysis Based on Evolutionary Process, Deep Structure and Solution[J]. People's Forum-Academic Frontier,2022(02):84-98. (In Chinese)
3. Feng Y.J., "The World Order in the "Post-Epidemic Era" and Russia's Strategic Choice" [J], Asia-Pacific Security and Maritime Studies, 2020 (5): 6 (In Chinese)
4. Guo M.L. An Analysis of Russia's Prestige Motives in Decision-Making in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict [D]. Central China Normal University,2022. (In Chinese)
5. "Here's how much it could cost to rebuild Ukraine - and who would pay for it," [J]https://www.npr.org/2022/ 05/26/1100501433/heres-how-much-it-could-cost-to-build-ukraine-and-who-would-pay-for-it. (In English)
СОЦИОЛОГИЯ. ПОЛИТОЛОГИЯ. МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫЕ ОТНОШЕНИЯ
6. "Interim National Security Strategic Guidance," [R]https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefingroom/statements-releases/2021/03/03/interim-national-security-strategic-guidance/. (In English)
7. "Joint Statement on Further Restrictive Economic Measures," [EB/OL]. (2022-02-26) [2023-01-22] https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/26/joint-statement-on-iurther-restrictiveeconomic-measures/. (In English)
8. Liu FH. The Direction of Russia-U.S. Relations and Its Implications[J]. International Studies,2021(02):68-87+132.
(In Chinese)
9. Putin's Return and U.S. Presidential Elections: What Are the Prospects for Russian American Relati-ons?[J]http:// carnegieendowment.org/2012/05/17/putin-s-return-and-u.s.- presidential-elections-what-are-the-prospects-for-russian-american-relations/ dt17. (In Chinese)
10.Wang J. Spillover Effects of Russia-Ukraine Conflict in East Asia[J]. Japanese Studies,2022(03):25-33. (In Chinese)
11. Rubén Darío Gusseti, Lou Y. Peace and Development:Reflections on the Theme of the Times in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict[J]. World Socialist Studies,2022,7(10):89-95+119-120. (In Chinese)
12. "Remarks by President Biden in Press Conference," [EB/OL]. (2023-01-19) [2023-01-20] https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefingroom/speeches-remarks/2022/01/19/remarks-by-president-biden-in-press-conference-6/. (In English)
13. "U.S. House of Representatives passes bill to sell confiscated Russian property to aid Ukraine," [EB/OL] https://www. tellerreport.com/news/2022-04-28-u-s--house-of-representativespasses-bill-to-sell-confiscated-russian-property-to-aid-ukraine.Skw7hnvHc.html. (In English)
14. Yang Z.X. Research on Russia-US Relations in the Context of Ukraine Crisis [D]. Foreign Affairs College,2021 .D0I:10.27373/d.cnki.gwjxc.2021.000309. (In Chinese)
15. Yang L. The Crisis in Ukraine and the New Cold War between the United States and Russia [J], Peace and Development, 2015(5):86 (In Chinese)
16. Zhao L, Liu J, Ding C, Xu MQ, Shao YQ. Russia-Ukraine Conflict and International Political Economy Game[J]. International 0utlook,2022,14(03):56-78+158-159. (In Chinese)
17. Zhang J. Russia-Ukraine Conflict in the Context of Russia-Ukraine Relations and Its Prospects[J]. Peace and Development,2022(03):23-38+135-136. (In Chinese)
Ссылка на статью:
Ли Мэнлун, Хэ Цюсюань. Исследование влияния российско-американских отношений после российско-украинского конфликта с точки зрения китайских ученых // Вестн. Удм. ун-та. Социология. Политология. Международные отношения. 2024. Т. 8, вып. 1. С. 49-59. https://doi.org/10.35634/2587-9030-2024-8-1-49-59 (на англ. яз).
Статья поступила в редакцию 19.09.2023 Передана на рецензирование 20.09.2023 Рекомендована к публикации 14.10.2023
Ли Мэнлун, кандидат исторических наук,
старший преподаватель института международных и общественных отношений
Цзилиньский университет
130012, Китай, г. Чанчунь, ул. Цяньцзинь, 2699
E-mail: [email protected]
Хэ Цюсюань, магистр Института международных исследований Уханьский университет 430072, Китай, г. Ухань, ул. Байи, 299 E-mail: [email protected]
