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All of the above projects, implemented with the direct or indirect assistance of the Government of the Republic of Turkey, clearly demonstrate the importance that the country attaches to the consolidation of influence in the region and the post-Soviet space in order to become one of the strongest states in the world. Claiming for the role of the modernizer of Eurasia, Turkey seeks to expand the geographic boundaries of its geopolitical influence.
The attitude towards the Ottoman past as a common space-time continuum for many peoples allows Turkey to present its experience as a potential common denominator for resolving crises and problems, creating a new regional dynamics within the Euro-Asian continent with the inclusion in this process not only ethnically and linguistically close, but also distinct peoples. In other words, Turkey's foreign policy, often referred to as "neo-Ottomanism," aims to extend its influence to a number of regions and peoples, using the rhetoric of the common past.
Author of the abstract - Valentina Schensnovich
2018.03.011. KONSTANTIN DUDAREV. WINDS OF CHANGES OVER SAUDI ARABIA // "Asia and Africa," Moscow, 2017, № 11, "Asiya i Afrika segodnya," P. 39-44.
Keywords: Saudi Arabia, "Vision of 2030," reforms, Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
Konstantin Dudarev,
Orientalist; Journalist
In this article the author analyzes the radical socio-economic reforms in Saudi Arabia aimed at reducing the raw material dependence of the country's economy and its diversifying. Speaking about the first visit to Russia of the Saudi monarch Abdel Aziz Al Saud in early October 2017, the author notes its importance and the serious nature of Saudi Arabia's intentions,
which was shown by the composition and size of the country's delegation: it numbered more than one thousand important persons among whom were ministers, heads of state corporations, big banks and private firms. The two countries have agreed to develop and strengthen bilateral relations, as well as those at the regional and international levels.
The author makes a conclusion that the visit was connected with the domestic situation in the kingdom, which has embarked on the path of radical transformations. The main document, which determined the new path of socio-political and cultural and moral development is the program of "Vision 2030," or "Strategy 2030 of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia" initiated by the Saudi Monarch Salman ben Abdel Aziz. In essence, it is a continuation of the path of reforms initiated by him after his enthronement in January 2015. Among them the change of the rules of the heir apparent, which resulted in bringing to power of the grandchildren of King Abdel Aziz, the founder of the dynasty, the reduction of state subsidies, introduction of the added value tax for the first time in history, tobacco tax. etc., as well as reduction of government spending, limitation of growth rates of wages and various bonus payments.
These steps showed a deviation from the economic model which existed for several decades and was based on the paternalist principles of state subsidizing the low prices of petrol, water and electric energy. Due to this the budget losses amounted to dozens of billions of dollars
Among the reasons for the reforms the author names the low prices of oil in recent years, which brought about considerable budget losses of the country. Its leadership has come to the conclusion that oil incomes can no longer serve as a reliable basis of stable economic development. And so, King Salman ordered the State Council on economy and development to work out a draft project of reforms.
The authors see the earnest of the success of the strategy in the international prestige of Saudi Arabia, which they regard "the heart of the Arab and Islamic world due to Mecca and Medina
situated on its territory. Among other factors of success are its "colossal investment potential," as well as the resolution and desire of the country's leadership to turn it into a "global trade hub and the gates to the world." The main emphasis is made on the diversification of the economy, increase of the production potential and a greater share of the private sector in the economic life.
A new developing field is the mining and processing of natural riches, which are in abundance, such as bauxites, phosphates, gold, copper, uranium (about six percent of world deposits), etc.
Along with this, the government intends to support other promising branches of the economy and make everything possible to increase the share of the country's producers, carrying on the policy of import-substitution.
In contrast to preceding decades, when the Kingdom was a pure importer of machines and equipment, a decision was taken to include in import contracts articles on development of defense production on the country's territory. The task was set to double the mining of gas and create a national network for its delivery to various districts of the country.
Another factor contributing to the entry of Saudi Arabia into a new phase of industrialization is the country's transit potential connected with its strategic position on the crossroads of major trade routes between Asia, Europe and Africa in conjunction with the abundance of energy resources and developed logistics.
Stake is made on regional integration, but the crisis that has broken up between Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, on one hand, and Qatar, on other, can considerably retard integration processes.
Much depends on how smoothly reforms will be going on in the country and what the general situation in the Middle East and the entire world will be. The document specially notes the need for loyalty to the Islamic principle. The Kingdom will continue to exert every effort to receive Muslims from all over the world on its land, thus strengthening still more its positions as the spiritual leader of
the Muslim world and the center of Islamic civilization, and considerably increase financial flows to the budget of the country.
The social sphere is also an important factor. Despite a sufficiently high standard of living in Saudi Arabia, there are quite a few complex social problems in the country, the most acute of then being unemployment among young people, especially taking into account the fact that people under thirty account for about 70 percent of the population. An important aspect is to draw Saudi women to work, most of whom stay at home at present. It is not possible to carry out reforms without changing the social consciousness of citizens, their psychology and mentality, life pattern and even attitude to time. The country's population should not only accept reforms, but also take an active part in their implementation.
An important place is given over to foreign policy. All the more so since the Saudi government intends to develop the country's economy on the basis of the most advanced technologies, above all American ones.
As to the reaction of Saudi society and expert community to the new strategy, it should be said that the program gave people hopes for more active life full of positive changes, and young men and women for work and decent earnings The International Monetary Fund and most analysts believe that the reforms will make the Saudi economy more dynamic.
At the same time certain experts express doubts whether a conservatively-minded Saudi society would wish to change its comfortable, calm and quiet life into the high-strung daily competitive struggle for various benefits.
Certain western critics of Saudi reforms predict their inevitable collapse, comparing the transformations in Saudi Arabia with the economic reforms of the Shah of Iran in the 1970s, which ended in his overthrow.
The attempt of the Saudi authorities to induce the population to renounce their high living standards ensured by oil incomes and make it earn its living by hard labor is really connected with a
serious risk to cause discontent in society. It will touch, first and foremost, 70 percent of the able-bodied male population working at the public sector, whose number will greatly be reduced, which may bring about a violation of the functioning of the established economic model.
Besides, it is necessary to take into account the stand of the influential Muslim clergy of Saudi Arabia, which usually adheres to conservative positions and do not support innovations. The clergy will hardly approve the idea of the authorities to draw women to working activities, or to open an opera theater in Riyadh, for it is generally recognized that all western entertainments are a vice.
The author notes that there is still no answer as to whether the growing tension would violate the age-old alliance between the ruling dynasty and the Muslim clergy due to which the country has succeeded to preserve unity even at the mostly difficult times. The transformation in the Saudi Kingdom are of international importance, as the country's modernization means a restriction of the influence of the Muslim clergy on people's minds, decrease of spreading religious extremism, radical views and xenophobia. A result of this course will be secularization of foreign policy and, consequently, lower terrorist activity in the Middle East and outside its boundaries.
Speaking of the first results of the transformations in the country, the author comes to a conclusion that the very fact that the reforms have been going on for over a year already speak of their success. Public opinion polls in Saudi Arabia also instill optimism. An important factor is that the transformations are carried out under the supervision of Prince Mohammed bin Salman who is part and embodiment of the new generation of the 30-year-old men forming the foundation of the Saudi society.
Author of the abstract - Elena Dmitrieva
