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an important development in the political practice of the "al-Nahda" movement.
The problem of a possible evolution of Islamist movements, in particular, the "al-Nahda" movement, seems quite important, inasmuch as the trend of a possible evolution may determine the further development of political processes in the Arab Muslim world, and also in global policy as a whole. Theoretically, the hypothetical possibility of an evolution of the Islamist movement can be admitted. However, practically, the radical evolution of the "al-Nahda" movement, presupposing its principal changes, is hardly possible. One could presume or talk of only theoretical concessions or compromises, which shows only a certain softening of the rhetoric of the "al-Nahda" after it has lost its position of the ruling party after the "Call of Tunisia" party came to power , Boris Dolgov concludes.
Author of the abstract - Valentina Schensnovich
2018.01.014. EKATERINA ELKINA. HYDRO-POLICY IN THE NILE BASIN // "Asia i Africa segodnya," Moscow, 2015, № 8, P. 30-33.
Keywords: Egypt, Ethiopia,Sudan, Africa, "Renaissance Dam" on the Nile.
Ekaterina Elkina,
Junior Research Associate
Africa Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences
The author draws attention to disputes around Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam building on the Blue Nile. Egyptian president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Ethiopian prime-minister Hailemariam Desalegn and Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir took part in the summit on March 23, 2015 in Khartoum. The point at issue was about the Nile's waters and disputes solutions connected with the Dam building. Three leaders
adopted "Declaration of principles" devoted to their cooperation resulting from Grand Dam building. There are no any particularities in the declaration. It is said about striving to solve problems on the basis of "mutual understanding, common interest, good intentions, benefit for all and international law principles" and also about the necessity of cooperation in terms of "water concerns" in the countries upstream and downstream of the Nile.
Parties admitted that the dam is being built to generate electricity and contribute to economic development and transnational collaboration. They decided that they will fulfill recommendations of the international technical experts commission at different stages of damming. It was accepted a principle of not causing damage for any party.
Grand Dam is about 15 km from Sudan's frontier. Contracted capacity of the hydroelectric power station is 6 ths. megawatt. It will become the largest one in Africa and the 11th in the world like hydroelectric station of Krasnoyarsk. Water storage reservoir 1561 sq. km. will contain about 79 billion cub. m of water.
Ethiopia is a poor country. 40% of its 87.9 million population (outlook for 2014) live below the poverty line. There is almost no industry. Economy largely depends on oil import. In spite of developed reserves oil on the territory of the country isn't still produced, it is necessary to buy oil-products and oil itself. In regards to the Ethiopians oil for the Gulf states is a dower as the Nile's waters for themselves. The Ethiopians ask a question-why do the pay for oil, but get nothing for water?
In the world practice there are cases when countries lying downstream the river pay for water with that they are upstream. That is why the Ethiopians consider damming on the Nile economically viable basically "gate to the future." Damming project realization should turn poor agricultural Ethiopia into prosperous industrial country at the expenses of using cheap electric power. Damming will give thousands of workplaces.
After end of construction electricity will go for needs of Ethiopia itself and neighbouring countries including Sudan and perhaps Egypt. It will be possible to invest in infrastructure of international tourism. The dam and the hydroelectric power station have ambitious political aspect; they should become a symbol of Ethiopian national revival. The criticism of the project is considered to be unacceptable.
The Egyptians have another position. Egypt is "the gift of the Nile": it is deemed to be an axiom. Getting of sufficient amount of water for this state is a question of life and death. Water in the river can vary and these fluctuations are unpredictable.
To avoid the consequences of possible droughts and harmful floods in 1960-1971 with the help of the USSR it was built high-rise Aswan Dam. It let agriculture of Egypt switch to year-round irrigation and gather the harvest up to three times a year. Although maintenance of the reservoir level - the lake Naser depends on contribution from the Blue Nile.
Possible influence of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam over downstream countries causes disputes. The lake Naser looses about 12% of water because of evaporation. The Ethiopians claim that Grand Dam located upstairs with lower average annual temperature and smaller water-surface lake area will subsequently decrease evaporation and even increase water flow in Egypt by 5%.
In Egypt there are worries about the fact that while the reservoir will fill water influx in the Naser lake will shrink and as a consequence electric power output by Aswan Dam hydroelectric power station will fall to 25-40% (representing just 3% of Egyptian electricity production). This huge reservoir can hardly fill with water during a year that would cause ecological catastrophe in Egypt. At any rate impact with Egyptian agriculture will be launched.
The Nile basin, except for Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, incorporates Burundi, Rwanda, DR Congo, Uganda, Kenya,
Tanzania and South Sudan. Namely Egypt has legally enforceable right to use waters of Great River. First treaty on water distribution was signed in 1929 by Egyptian government and England being a colonial power acted on behalf of Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, and Kenya. Later in 1959 it was signed the second treaty whereunder 83% of the Nile waters got Egypt and 17% - Sudan. Moreover Egypt got veto right in using the waters by other upstream countries.
These at first sight unfair treaties, E. Elkina writes, have merit - all of the countries through which the Nile flows only Egypt and Sudan differ by arid climate and almost don't have other sources of water. 97% of water for irrigation and also industry and domestic needs Egypt gets from the Nile.
As before the Nile is a Lifeline for the Egyptians. However today the country has problems with fresh water. In 1959 its population was 30 million people and for each person there were about (in line with the Nile treaty quotas) 2,1 thous. cub. m of water per year. By 2006 the population increased to 80 million people that reduced consumption per head to 790 cub.m. per year (at rate of 1 thous. cub.m. reportedly by the UN). The population of the country continues to grow and program of Water Resource Planning in Egypt predicts that in 2025 337 cub.m. of water per year will fall on one human it means that without sacrificing current policy of the state the best part of plowed fields of Egypt won't be irrigated.
Water supply engenders a provision of food problem (chronic shortage of own food) that is one of main component of Egyptian national security. Government carries out works in regards to water distribution systems and introduction of new technologies of its use. Apparently it will be necessary to withdraw from ambitious projects of irrigation of more desert parts with the object of turning them into gardens and fields.
In 1993 Egypt and Ethiopia concluded a framework agreement in which they obliged not to act against the interests of one another and take measures at lowering dumping in the river.
In 1999 it was created a group of the Nile basin countries - the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) which included besides Egypt and Sudan-Burundi, Ruanda, Uganda, DR Congo, Kenya, Tanzania and Ethiopia. Countries from the Upper Nile region prepared a draft of a new framework agreement on use of waters but Sudan and Egypt refused to join it because it was intended a revision of the Nile treaty. Ministers of 9 African countries within the NBI met in 2009 in Alexandria but set aside a question of water redivision and then the group split. Adoption of the new agreement was blocked by Egypt and Sudan discordant with coming reduction of annual quotas. Other countries of the basin strive for a new system of water resources distribution and reducing of quotas for Egypt and Sudan.
In March 2015 the president of Egypt Abdel Fattah el-Sisi came to Ethiopia with three-day visit. He met with the Ethiopian president, prime-minister and patriarch (Egyptian Copts and Ethiopian Christians belong to one Monophysit branch of Christianity, close to Orthodoxy). Thus step by step parties go to understanding on the basis of compromises.
Problems related to water shortage during thousands of years of Egyptian history arose repeatedly. After all they have never been as grave as they are now. It is referred to manmade effect on water regime of the Nile. Now the experts not only beyond Egypt but within the country it is clear that plans for standstill are not realistic. Attitude "all or nothing," the author emphasizes, is counterproductive. To avoid serious conflicts it is necessary to advance a dialog and diplomatic negotiations. "Declaration of principles" signed by Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia will undoubtedly become an important step on this way.
Author of the abstract - Valentina Schensnovich
