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19 In this connection it would be appropriate to mention the role of foreign actors influencing the positions in the Baku - Tehran - Tel Aviv triangle. Apart from the United States which has considerable economic interests in the Transcaucasus, Russia and Turkey, too, are traditional actors in the South Caucasus.
20 Hans J. Morgenthau. Polityica Among Nations. 1973, pp. 27-30.
2018.01.010. STANISLAV PRITCHIN. UZBEK TRANSIT FOR CENTRAL ASIA // "Russia in Global Politics," Moscow, 2017, № 1, Vol. 15, P. 150-159.
Keywords: Uzbekistan, Central Asia, elite, power, elections, president, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, history, Turkmenistan, reforms, investments, migration, China, Kazakhstan.
Stanislav Pritchin,
PhD (Hist.), Research Associate, the Center of Study of Central Asia, Caucasus and Urals-Volga Area, the Institute of Oriental Studies RAS, Head of ECED Analytical Center
On December 4, 2016, early presidential elections took place in Uzbekistan in connection with the death of President Islam Karimov on September 2. Four candidates from each of the registered political parties took part in the elections. But the indisputable favorite was Shavkat Mirziyoev, who held the post of prime minister from 2003. He gained the biggest number of votes - 88.61 percent. Having scored victory, he declared the priority targets of his five-year term, some of which look revolutionary enough, as, for example, direct elections of heads of regions and reforms of government service. Thus, Uzbekistan has entered into a new epoch, and taking into account its weight and importance in Central Asia, its neighbors will not be able to ignore the course of Uzbek transit.
The question as to who could replace Karimov was solved during closed negotiations. By a decree of parliament Sh. Mirziyoev was endorsed as the head of the state commission for Karimov's funeral. Several days later the joint session of the two chambers of Uzbek parliament approved the disqualification of self by the senate speaker N. Yuldashev from the post of the provisional head of the republic, which he should have taken in accordance with the Constitution of 2011 in case of the President's death or loss of capacity to fulfill his duties until the election of the new head of state. Sh. Mirziyoev was elected acting president, and early elections had to take place on December 4, 2016.
Foreign experts criticized the decision of the disqualification of self by the speaker of the Senate and the endorsement of the premier as the acting president. Articles 95 and 96 of the Constitution on the procedure of announcement of early elections and appointment of the acting head of state in case of the death or loss of capacity to work of the incumbent holder of office do not deal with such nuances. At the same time the prime minister in the Uzbek political hierarchy is the third person, and in such situation it was quite logical that it was he who replaced Yuldashev after his disqualification of self. It is necessary to understand the specific features of Uzbekistan's political culture. The sacral position of the head of state is so high there that it is difficult to imagine two centers of power even for a brief period of time - acting president and the most probable candidate. On the one hand, this could have brought about dangerous behind-the-scenes games, and on the other, to create diarchy in public consciousness.
A specific feature of Uzbek transit is its maximal consolidation. Not a single leading actor claiming the highest post wishes to destabilize the socio-political situation. Moreover, all claimants were interested in preserving the strict vertical of power and maximal cohesion of the ruling political class. In this situation the competing groups preferred behind-the-scene
negotiations and putting forward a single candidate instead of public debates. Another stabilizing factor, undoubtedly, was the Head of the National Security Council R. Inoyatov, who, due to his venerable age, had no personal presidential ambitions and, most probably, played the role of the key moderator of the election of the new President of Uzbekistan and his accord with the principal political actors.
The reforms spoken of during the election campaign and after it should touch on all spheres of life. The new President suggested several initiatives aimed at the improvement of the investment medium: restrictions are to be introduced on inspecting business by government bodies; measures are put forward to facilitate the conversion procedure of the national currency - the key problem for foreign investors. President Mirziyoev proposed to examine the possibility of electing heads of regions by all people's vote. If this initiative is introduced, it will become a precedent for the entire Central Asian region, because in all its countries the heads of local bodies and administrative units are appointed or removed by presidents. At present a concept of the administrative reform is evolved calculated for the 2017-2021 period. Meanwhile, the rigid vertical of power and the course aimed at secularization of socio-political life are preserved, and the spreading of the radical Islamist ideas is banned.
One can hardly expect serious changes in the foreign-policy priorities of Uzbekistan at the present stage. First, all internal political problems should be solved and a new balance of forces formed, and only after this one can expect any changes in the international priorities. The primary task of the new President will be to receive support and recognition of his legitimacy from the key actors - Russia, China and the United States.
Speaking of long-term interests of Uzbekistan, it is the development of cooperation with Russia, inasmuch as more than two million Uzbek citizens work there. Russia is also an important economic partner and the biggest investor, primarily in the oil-and-gas sphere. A certain move toward the EAEC is
also possible, but not at the level of full-fledged membership so far. Close cooperation will continue with China, inasmuch as the latter is an important investor, primarily in the transport sector, and a major purchaser of Uzbek gas.
As to the foreign-policy preferences and priorities of the second President of Uzbekistan, one may take the statement of Sh. Mirziyoev made at the ceremony of his endorsement as the acting head of state. First on the list of partners are Uzbekistan's Central Asian neighbors, and only then come Russia, China, the United State, Japan and South Korea. As to Kazakhstan, there is a pragmatic strategic alliance with it. Strained relations persist with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan due to the unresolved border issues and a conflict over the water-and-energy situation. At the same time the personal contacts of the presidents of Central Asian countries play a no small role. For example, the President of Tajikistan Emomali Rakhmon flew to Tashkent to attend the funeral of Islam Karimov, although they had rather difficult personal relations. He met the head of Uzbekistan and talked with him on certain problems of interest for both countries. It is to be hoped that Sh. Mirziyoev as the new head of Uzbekistan will do his best to resolve all problems and contradictions with his country's neighbors and bring mutual relations to a new level.
The risks connected with transfer of power are primarily connected with the domestic political situation. Islam Karimov was the key figure of the system, and being over and above the scuffle ensured stability due to establishing a balance between the main political and regional groups of influence. In any case, the author of the article notes, any exacerbation of inter-elite struggle after the election of the President will hardly lead to destabilization in the republic, but will only be limited to redistribution of influence between the ruling groups.
Author of the abstract- Elena Dmitrieva
