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2017.01.013. A. SAMOKHIN. PARTICULAR ASPECTS OF GEOPOLITICAL STUDY VALID FOR THE SYRIAN CRISIS (2011-2016). // "Vestnik Adygeiskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta Maikop, 2016, № 1 (174), P. 50-54.
Keywords: Syrian crisis, international terrorism, military intervention, national interests, energy policy.
A. Samokhin,
Ph. D. (History), Associate Professor, Kuban State University (Krasnodar)
For Russia, participating in settlement of the Syrian crisis, growing influence of ISIS factor and other radical groups all over the post-Soviet area and its own territory has paramount importance. In case of ISIS's activity expansion in Central Asia and beginning of a regional war there, Russia's participation is predestined. Syrian operation is an entry into a substantially imminent war for Russia on easy terms - away from the former Soviet Union frontiers and without Russian ground-forces participation. Therefore, intervention in Syria permits at the worst-to stave off a full-scale warfare on land with involvement of Russia in former-Soviet Central Asia, and at the best- to preclude it. The Soviet-Syrian alliance was created in the Cold war years. After the end of the Cold war Syria- a client of Russian armaments industry- left one of the Middle East countries where Moscow reserved its geopolitical positions during the Soviet era. The Syrian army uses Soviet and Russian armament. It is thought that 72 % of the weapon bought by Syria is Russian. Furthermore,
during the war years Syrian demand for the armament has increased fivefold, and it became major buyer of the Russian defense industry.
Staying of B. Al-Assad in power meets the Russian interests. Russia aims to prevent the regime change in Syria from the outside by abusive means that would be fraught with harmful consequences for ex-USSR countries on the Russian periphery and regions of North Caucasus and the Volga region of the Russian Federation inhabited by Moslems.
Syria occupies an important place in geopolitical ambitions of Russia. Russian naval forces have a remote sustainment center in the Syrian harbor Tartus, which is a unique Russian military post beyond the former USSR territory. The base in Tartus is capable of guaranteeing the presence of Russian naval forces in the Mediterranean Sea, even in the event of growing animosity with Turkey, dominating the Black Sea straits. This strategic target is essential in terms of Russia's inclinations to strengthen its geopolitical role in the eastern Mediterranean and in the Middle East.
Estimating the Russian interests in Syria it is necessary to contemplate an energy-political dimension of the conflict. The war in Syria is an echo of scramble, which was initiated by the leading players of the global gas market. The grand prize in this campaign is an access to the largest gas market in Europe. Making a selection from all existent energy resources European countries placed stake on natural gas as the most environmentally safe of all hydrocarbons.
The European Union gives particular emphasis on developing economic relations with Saudi Arabia, in putting up the Middle-Eastern strategy. Alongside cooling in relations with Washington, Riyadh tends to enhance relations with Europe. It is noteworthy that the EU came out on top in the quality of defense industry production provider for Saudi Arabia in 2010. B. Al-Assad's Syria is the one seriously problematic territory. It should be no surprise that Qatar became one of the encouragers of
fighting against the Syrian regime. In case of its victory in the civil war entanglement on the way of the gas pipe from Qatar to the coast of the Mediterranean Sea will vanish. The EU countries' activity can be interpreted by the similar logic. In the struggle around Syria preferences of the USA are on the Qatars and Europeans side. However the Syrian regime has a potent ally, it is Iran. Teheran has not less energy-political motivation in its activity of supporting efforts of Damascus than Qatar and the EU.
For a long time the Iranians have brooded over plans about building a gas pipe line to a shore of amicable Syria. Great while the Sunni regime of S. Hussein has thwarted that purpose. Nevertheless a pass for the Iranian gas to Syria was open after the toppling of the Iraqi dictator. The Shia majority took power in Iraq, and influence of Tehran on neighboring country increased drastically. In July, 2011, Syria, Iran and Iraq singed an energy deal whereunder the pipe line was to get through from the Iranian port in Assaluyeh in a region of gasfield South Pars in the Persian Gulf to Damascus in Syria through Iraq's territory. Project realization of the pipe line can mainly anchor Shia axis by strong economic support. In fact, there is a fierce competition for a selection of gas-transportation route from the same field, one part of which is controlled by Qatar and the second one by Iran. In accordance with the researcher's output, both pipe line projects are not profitable for Russia. Both of them are able to provide competition to Gasprom at the European market, but in case of the Iranian project realization, it will be easier for Russia to negotiate with Islamic Republic rather than with Qatar.
From the outset of the Syrian conflict the Russian Federation is seriously concerned with keeping B. Al-Assad's government in office. From this perspective the Syrian government was insistently recommended to establish a contact with the opposition not to provide an opportunity to an armed revolt.
From Moscow's point of view, continuation of the Syrian conflict creates danger of quantitative growth of ideologically prepared jihadists who can go back to native land (and already do it), which includes Russia and neighbouring countries of Central Asia. Prevalence of jihadist elements within anti-Assad forces in Syria aggravates efforts of peaceful settlement of the conflict. Engagement of the Russian Federation in the Syrian conflict is established by two main strategic aims: issue a challenge to American hegemony on the global stage and help the government of the Syrian president B. Assad in battle with radical Islamists, who are the real danger to national security of Russia.
The author of the abstract -V. Schensnovich.
2017.01.014. K. AZIMOV. WHO IS BEHIND THE COUP ATTEMPT IN TURKEY? // Ekonomicheskie sotsialno-politicheskie i etnokonfessionalnye problemy afro-aziatskih stran. Pamyati Pahomovoy L.F., Moscow, 2016, IOS RAS, P. 46-53.
Keywords: the military coup, the Kurdish rebels, R. Erdogan, F. Gulen, Turkish nationalism, Justice and Development Party (AKP).
K. Azimov,
Institute of Oriental Studies, Uzbekistan
The author analyzes the situation preceding the military coup attempt in Turkey July 15, 2016. There were several coups in Turkey in the 20th century: in 1960, 1971, 1980, 1997 years. The military were the initiators of change of power every time, considering themselves as the guarantor of the state created by Kemal Ataturk precepts. R. Erdogan has repeatedly and successfully attempted to limit the role of the army in the country. It seems that recently the situation has normalized with
