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ISLAM IN FOREIGN COUNTRIES
2016.10.005. K. TRUEVTSEV. THE MIDDLE EAST NODE AS THE EPICENTER OF CONFRONTATION OF THE MODERN PAN-ISLAMIC PROJECT AND THE NATION STATES // "Natsii i natsionalizm na musulmanskom vostoke", Moscow, Institute of Oriental Studies, 2015, P. 93-115.
Keywords: the civil war, threats of invasion, armed conflict, "Arab spring", ISIS, internal situation, escalation of the conflict, the Sunni and the Shiite.
K. Truevtsev,
Ph. D. (Hist.), Associate Professor, Higher School of Economics, leading research associate at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies, Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences
In recent years, the epicenter of the conflict in the Middle East has moved into Syria and then Iraq. Today, both countries seem partially disintegrated geographically and institutionally, most of their space is covered by the civil war. In fact the interstate Sunni and Shiite axes were formed in the region, taking the total character at the regional level.
The author notes the unpredictability of the conflict, since the terrorist Islamic State is at the center of it, is not controlled from the outside by anyone and is self-sufficient in financial, economic and military terms. No state in the region is free from the real threats of invasion, armed conflict with its neighbors and the internal collapse. This applies particularly to Turkey, Lebanon, Yemen, Saudi Arabia and Israel.
The author emphasizes that the current Middle East conflict has passed several stages in its development, each of which is characterized by a change in its dynamics, composition of participants, as well as a consistent escalation and expansion of the territorial limits and the number of participating forces. The conflict began in Syria as an internal one and was considered an integral part of the "Arab spring" at the first stage. Later Syria was removed from the general temporal context of the dynamics of the Arab Spring by the escalation of this conflict.
The opposition's demands and a tough response of government forces intensified the confrontation excessively and many politicians and analysts have come to the conclusion that the Assad regime would fall to the summer of 2011. The author draws attention to the fact that the Assad regime has recognized the validity of a number of the protesters' demands. Mass demonstrations in support of B. Assad were held in several cities, indicating the presence of a major base of support for the regime in the country.
Further, the author gives various explanations ISIS phenomenon and the reasons for its victories. The main reason is considered the supply of weapons and money to the Islamists from the West, and above all the U.S. and also their allies from the Middle East - Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey (some add Israel). After a massive influx of mercenaries from the Islamic world, from Europe, America, the former Soviet Union, ISIS has transformed this quantitative accumulation into a new quality, and thus there was this expansionist explosion.
Certain steps have been taken to enhance the social and political base of the regime and at the same time to stimulate the disengagement of the opposition. This policy was justified. The conflict passed a number of phases from the summer of 2011 and up to the present time, which have been caused by both external and internal Syrian and regional factors and events, giving it a full-fledged features of a regional conflict already. The author examines in detail the stages of the conflict, as well as the
participation of the Western powers and other countries - Syria's regional neighbors. By the second half of 2013, not only the internal situation in Syria, but the international situation around it began to take shape in favor of the regime of B. Assad: the regime managed to oust the opposition forces inside the country; Practical formation of the Shiite "axis" has begun in the regional plan; With respect to neighboring Syria Sunni countries, by mid-summer 2013, Turkey was virtually neutralized, Lebanese Sunnis could not provide effective military support to the Syrian opposition, Jordan did not want to participate in the conflict.
As is known, the escalation of the conflict has been avoided primarily due to the position of Russia, it became possible to unblock the situation by reaching an agreement with the Syrian government on the elimination of chemical weapons. Since the activities of ISIS had an obvious, Sunni shade, the opposing the Shiite "axis" was formed in the region. Thus, there were two opposing political and confessional "axis" - the Sunni and the Shiite - in the framework of the armed conflict in the region, and this confrontation was a potential threat to the total spread of the conflict at the regional level.
ISIS was declared the state by itself, there was a professional military leadership, as well as high quality planning and implementation of military operations. There was a combination of two main opposition forces of the Sunni area - radical Islamists, of the former "al-Qaeda" in Iraq, and the Baathist guerrilla movement. This was the reason for the success in capturing much of the "of the Sunni Triangle" in the western and central parts of the country.
The author points out that Islamic State (ISIS) as the caliphate became a reality for the first time in recent history. The conflict finally crossed the borders of individual states after the creation of ISIS. The terrorist state directly affects the territorial interests of at least three other countries in the region, just threatening their territorial integrity, and the very existence of Turkey, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
The author of the abstract - N. Ginesina.
