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ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ
Adam Oleksiuk
University of Warmia and Mazury
10 YEARS OF THE COHESION POLICY IN POLAND (2004-2014) AND ITS IMPACT ON SOCIOECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE COUNTRY AND ITS REGIONS USING A SYSTEM OF
MACROECONOMIC HERMIN MODELS
Abstract
The article identifies and analyses the impact of the cohesion policy on the Polish economy in the years 20042014. The impact of EUfunds in the article is assessed on the basis of the selected indicators of achieving basic goals of strategic documents, i.e. the National Development Plan 2004-2006, the National Cohesion Strategy 2007-2013, the Partnership Contract 2014-2020. Assessments of the impact of cohesion policy on the Polish economy are based on studies conducted using a system of macroeconomic HERMIN models, consisting of 16 regional models built by the research team of the Wroclaw Regional Development Agency (WARR) along with the national model, being an element of the cohesion system of HERMIN models (CSHM) applied by the Directorate General for Regional and Urban Policy of the European Commission for evaluation of cohesion policy. The impact of EU funds on basic macroeconomic indicators is obtained by comparing two scenarios - with EUfunds and without EUfunds. The starting point is a scenario corresponding to a situation in which the analysed funds are used. The second of the scenarios is hypothetical and is created with the assumption that the economy has no access to funds described in the analysed strategic documents. The difference between both scenarios corresponds to the impact of funds.
Introduction
By the end of 2014, in Poland funds from structural funds and the Cohesion Fund were spent, with total value of approx. EUR 67.8 billion2. The average annual volume ofpayments under the cohesion policy in relation to GDP for the analysed period (2004-2014) was at the level of 1.7%. In the regional system, in the years 2004-2014, the largest
level of payments in the nominal perspective characterized the following provinces: Mazowieckie - more than EUR 10.8 billion and Slqskie - more than EUR 7 billion. Further places are occupied by: Dolnoslqskie - approx. EUR 5.2 billion and Lodzkie and Wielkopolskie - almost EUR 5 billion each. The smallest level of payments was recorded in Opolskie Province - slightly above EUR 1.4 billion, andLubuskie (EUR 1.9 billion) andPodlaskie (EUR 2.1 billion). Considering funds under the cohesion policy per capita and in relation to GDP, the highest level of payments could be noticed in Warmihsko-Mazurskie and Podkarpackie Provinces (funds from the EU account for in these regions approx. 3% of GDP and approx. EUR 2.2-2.4 thousand per capita) [13].
In the analysed period, the greatest support from the EU was focused on projects related to the development of the basic infrastructure (transport infrastructure, power sector, protection accounted for approx. 2/3 of all funds. The remaining part of the funds spent was allocated more or less in the same quantity for development of human resources and direct support for the production sector. It can be noticed that in particular regions the structure of support is similar. Certain difference in this respect can be indicated with regard to the provinces: Opolskie and Podlaskie (with relatively low outlays for infrastructure, and high for supporting the production sector).
Investments financed with EU funds are a significant part of public investments in Poland. In 2014, total investment outlays amounted to almost PLN 250 billion, including approx. 38% were public investments (PLN 93.73 billion). The average share of investments financed from EU funds in total public investments were growing systematically from the moment of Poland's accession to the EU and in the recent years it has stabilized at the level of approx. 50%. In 2014, the share of EU investments fell down slightly (to the level of 47.3% of all public investments) and was very firmly diverse at the
regional level. Investments financed from funds of the cohesion policy were prevailing in Dolnoslqskie and Swietokrzyskie Provinces, and a high share was recorded also in Lubelskie and Warminsko-Mazurskie Provinces. On the other hand, in the provinces: Slqskie, Zachodniopomorskie and Mazowieckie, most public investments were financed from domestic sources [13]4.
Economic growth and structural changes in the economy
In the years 2004-2014, Poland reached the greatest accumulated GDP growth among EU member countries. From the moment of accession to the EU, the Polish economy grew by over a half (53.6%), whereas in EU-28 the average accumulated growth reached 12.2% (chart 3). In 2014, Poland, after two years (2012-2013) of a lower growth (1.6-1.7%) recorded growth of 3.4% and another year in a row was from among the most rapidly developing European economies. A relatively high economic growth in Poland in the period 2004-2014 (annually on average 4.0% towards 1.1% in the EU-28) was to a large extent the effect of using EU funds. During economic crisis,
2 According to the value of payment requests - EU subsidy.
3 Estimated, on the basis of share of public investments in 2013.
4 Data for provinces for 2013.
European funds were an absorber mitigating effects of external shocks and helped in the implementation of the national policy of public finance stabilization [12].
Throughout the whole analysed period, the impact of the cohesion policy on the economic development was positive - it is estimated that almost 20% of the average annual growth was an effect of the implementation of projects co-financed from EU funds. EU funds, through
stimulation of investment demand, were affecting increase in disposable income and consumption demand, contributing, as a result, to GDP growth. The inflow of EU funds had a stable contribution in the real GDP growth [10].
Over several years of the global financial and economic crisis, at least half of GDP growth in Poland was a result of projects co-financed from the EU budget.
Chart 1. Impact of the cohesion policy on GDP growth in Poland in the years 2004-2014
9,0
8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 -1,0
Source: Prepared by the author based on the data of the Central Statistical Office (GUS) and the results of macroeconomic models.
The impact on GDP growth in the studied period is largely determined by the distribution of expending funds in particular years of the implementation of the cohesion policy in Poland. It implies that dominant share in the impact throughout the whole examined period is attributed to short-term demand-related factors caused by inflowing additional funds to the economy of the country. These funds, by stimulating the investment demand, affect growth in disposable income and consumption demand, contributing, as a result, to GDP growth.
In the long run, apart from demand-related factors also supply effects will start disclosing, caused mainly by the accumulation of capital public and the support for accumulation of private capital, and thereby growth in work productivity5. The supply effects, associated, among other things, with expansion and modernization of technical infrastructure, improvement in quality of human capital, as well as expansion and modernization of companies' machinery stock, become visible largely in the
long run, intensifying the impact in the later years of the cohesion policy implementation (although their impact in the initial period of implementation of funds should not be ignored, bearing in mind for instance the impact through the channel of direct support for the sector of companies).
Investments financed from the European funds are also a factor of changes in the sectoral structure of the economy, manifesting themselves especially in growing share of the 3rd sector (services, especially market services) in the value added gross, with decreasing share of the first sector (agriculture).
Funds flowing into the Polish economy under the cohesion policy contribute also to intensification of the processes of real economic convergence between Poland and EU, pursuing thereby one of major goals of this policy. Bringing our country closer to the average level of development recorded in the European Union occurs as a result of a more dynamic economic growth related to growth in material capital and human capital and technological progress which, in turn, affects growth in work efficiency.
5 Throughout the whole period of 2004-2014, work efficiency in Poland was increasing faster than in the EU-28. As compared to the EU average, its level measured in GDP per one working person (taking into consideration differences in purchasing power of currencies) increased
from almost 62% in 2004 to 74.4% in 2013. The use of funds from the European funds resulted in decreasing the difference between efficiency of work in Poland and the average for the EU-28 by approx. 2.2 p.p. in 2013, and in 2020 this effect is supposed to amount to over 3 p.p.
In the years 2004-2014, the distance between Poland and the EU-28 measured by GDP per capita (in PPS) expressly decreased - by 20 p.p., including more than 1/4 was an effect of the cohesion policy implementation.
Thanks to the EU funds, Poland has an opportunity to achieve in 2020 the level of GDP per capita of 75% - 80% of the EU average [10].
Chart 2. Impact of the cohesion policy on the level of GDP per capita (in PPS) in Poland in relation to the EU-28 in the
years 2004-2014
80,0 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 0,0
■ impact of the cohesion policy (p.p.)
■ estimated level of GDP per capita (in PPS) in relations to EU without cohesion policy
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Prepared by the author on the basis of the Eurostat data and the results of macroeconomic models.
The implementation of the cohesion policy contributes not only to reduced distance of Poland in respect of the average level of socio-economic development of the EU-28 countries, but also to restricting processes of in internal differentiations. The distance in the level of economic development dividing Polish regions from the EU-28 average has been gradually decreasing, and the use of EU funds helps all Polish regions to approach the average level of development of the EU-28, although the process of convergence occurs irregularly in territorial terms.
In 2013, GDP per capita (in PPS) in five provinces of eastern Poland did not exceed 50% of the EU average [4]. Additionally, these provinces were characterized by a relatively low pace of reducing distance to the average EU-28 level. In the period 2004-2013, GDP per capita (in PPS) as compared to the EU-28 average increased in each of these of regions from 11 (Swi^tokrzyskie and Warminsko-Mazurskie) to 14 p.p. (Lubelskie). At the same time, in these regions the impact of the cohesion policy was strongest - approx. 25-30% of the made up distance (in Podlaskie and Lubelskie Provinces) to as much as 50-60% (in Podkarpackie and Warminsko-Mazurskie Provinces) was an effect of implementing projects co-financed by EU
6 The data at the level of Provinces are calculated according to the methodology ESA1995 owing to the lack of full time series according to ESA2010 for NTS2 at the time of task implementation. In the case of some items from national accounts, lack of historical data converted in accordance with ESA 2010 prevented at the time of task
funds. The distance to EU was covered most rapidly by the richest provinces: Mazowieckie Province (by 35 p.p.) and Dolnoslqskie Province (by 27 p.p.). In these regions, approx. 28% of the made up distance was an effect of implementing investments co-financed from EU funds [5].
The convergence pace depends mainly on the rate of economic growth of the regions. The development dynamics of the provinces is diverse.
In the years 2004-20146 the richest provinces were developing most quickly: Mazowieckie, Pomorskie, Wielkopolskie, Malopolskie and Dolnoslqskie. In these regions, contribution of the cohesion policy in the acceleration of GDP growth fluctuated from 15 to 25% (about 15-25% of the average annual growth was an effect of implementing investments co-financed from EU funds). On the other hand, in weaker developed provinces that were characterized by a relatively low growth, a greater scale of impact of the cohesion policy on this rate was recorded: in Podkarpackie and Warminsko-Mazurskie Provinces EU funds generated approx. 35% of the average annual GDP growth was an effect of implementing investments co-financed from EU funds.
Therefore, what is and will be regarded as the counterweight for the process of deepening interregional divergences in the level of development are EU funds: funds available as part of the cohesion policy enable
implementation the factography based on this methodology from being included. For the years 20042011, historical data were used, whose source was BDL GUS, while for the years 2012-2014 forecasts generated by Hermin regional models were used.
partially suppressing the process of regional differentiation. It results mostly from their usually stronger impact in the poorer provinces than in better developed provinces, but also from the fact that these regions receive greatest allocations per capita. Although what determines most scale of the impact of the cohesion policy on the development is above all the volume of funds, however, an important role is played also by other factors as e.g. internal
potentials of regions and degree of matching the thematic structure of funds to their needs.
Throughout the whole analysed period 2004-2014, the impact of the cohesion policy on the investment rate was positive: as a result of expending EU funds this rate in the recent years has been higher by at least 2.5 p.p. over the level which would be observed in the case of absence of financial aid from the EU.
Chart 3. Impact of the cohesion policy on the investment rate in Poland in the years 2004-2014
impact of the cohesion policy (p.p.)
estimated investment rate without cohesion policy (%)
10,0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Prepared by the author based on the data of the Central Statistical Office (GUS) and the results of macroeconomic models.
The cohesion policy contributes to restricted increase in the rate of divergence of regional GDP per capita, both at the level NTS2 and NTS3 (in the case of NTS3 to 2014 by 1.3 p.p.), pursuing thereby the main goal of this policy.
Cohesion policy and labour market At the time of accession to the EU, Poland was characterized by the lowest employment rate in the EU, but
until 2014 it recorded the greatest increase in this rate: by 9.4 p.p. Almost 1/3 (approx. 2.9 p.p.) of growth in the employment rate in the period 2004-2014 was the effect of implementing investments co-financed from EU funds. What is important, the crisis caused only minimum reduction in the employment rate in Poland, which is owed, to a large extent, to the EU funds. In 2014, the employment rate of people aged 20-64 in Poland amounted to 66.5 and we are missing 2.7 p.p. to the EU-28 average (in 2004, this distance was more than 10 p.p.).
Chart 4. Impact of the cohesion policy on the employment rate ofpeople aged 20-64 in the years 2004-2014
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Prepared by the author on the basis of the Eurostat data and the results of macroeconomic models.
The employment rate is quite strongly diverse regionally. In 2014, the lowest level of employment was recorded in Warminsko-Mazurskie Province (60.4%) and the highest was recorded in Mazowieckie Province (73.2%). In the years of EU membership, this distance at the level of employment was made up by Lubuskie and Dolnosl^skie Provinces: by over 13 p.p. The situation in this aspect is worse in Lubelskie and Podkarpackie where the employment rate in the years 2004-2014 increased only by 2.7-4.2 p.p., whereas on average in the country it recorded more than twice more.
The use of EU funds had a positive impact on the employment rate for all the provinces. The greatest impact was recorded in Lodzkie and Warminsko-Mazurskie Provinces: it is estimated that investments co-financed as part of the cohesion policy contributed to the increase in the employment rate in these regions by over 5 p.p. On the other hand, the smallest impact of the cohesion policy on the labour market was recorded in Opolskie and Wielkopolskie Provinces.
A positive effect of the European cohesion policy is visible in the creation of new jobs, improvement in employee qualifications and better adaptation to changing conditions on the labour market. Number of working people aged 20-64 in 2014 was 15.5 million. In the years 2004-2014, the growth rate in working people was one of the highest in the EU, which resulted in growth of the number of working people by over 2.3 million. The number
of jobs created as a result of the implementation of investments co-financed from the EU budget is estimated at more than PLN 700 thousand.
The implementation of the cohesion policy, apart from the impact on general level of employment, causes at the same time changes in its sectoral structure. The impact of EU funds on the labour market proceeds to a greater extent through the demand channel, increasing the meaning of the industrial sector and the construction sector, as well as the service sector and, at the same time, limiting the share of agriculture in the structure of employment.
Positive impact of EU funds is also visible in decreasing unemployment rate. Poland, when entering the EU, was characterized by the highest unemployment rate7 in the EU (19.1%). In subsequent years after the accession, its fast decrease was recorded. Deterioration in the economic situation contributed, however, to growth in the unemployment rate and in 2013 it amounted to 10.3, %, however, in 2014, it decreased to 9% and is lower than the EU-28 average by 1.2 p.p.[10].
EU funds largely contributed to restricted unemployment rate. Due to the implementation of funds as part of the cohesion policy, in the years 2010-2014 the unemployment rate in the group of people 15 + was more than 3 p.p. lower than if investments co-financed from EU funds would not be implemented. In the absolute perspective, it means decrease in the number of the unemployed by at least half a million [12].
Chart 5. Impact of the cohesion policy on the unemployment rate ofpeople 15+ in the years 2004-2014
25,0
20,0
impact of the cohesion policy (p.p unemployment rate15+
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Prepared by the author on the basis of the Eurostat data and the results of macroeconomic models.
At a regional level, the highest unemployment was characterizing in 2014 the following provinces: Podkarpackie (14%) and Swi^tokrzyskie (11.4%). Like in the case of the employment rate, the use of EU funds had positive impact on reduction in the unemployment rate in the case of all the provinces. The greatest impact was recorded in Warminsko-Mazurskie Voivodeship. It is
estimated that investments co-financed as part of the cohesion policy contributed to reduced unemployment rate in this region by approx. 8.1 p.p. High impact (more than 6 p.p.) was recorded also in the provinces: Pomorskie, Lodzkie and Podkarpackie. On the other hand, the smallest impact of the cohesion policy on the labour market was recorded in Wielkopolskie Province.
It is worth adding that the processes occurring on the labour market largely determine the level and dynamics
7 Unemployment rate for people aged 15+, according to BAEL.
of social development of a particular area. Therefore, the contribution of the cohesion policy in improving situation on the labour market in Poland should be considered as extremely significant.
Cohesion policy and public finance
Recently, there has been a significant improvement in public finance. The deficit of the government and local government sector decreased from 7.6% in 2010 to 3.2% of GDP in 2014. As a result, in May this year EC recommended to the ECOFIN Council exempting Poland from the procedure of excessive deficit, and in June this year it was repealed against Poland. In the Convergence Program, the government plans further reduction in the deficit to 2.7% in 2015 and then to 1.2% of GDP in 2018. Currently, Poland belongs to the countries with a deficit similar to the EU-28 average (2.9% of GDP in 2014).
Definitely more beneficial situation is visible in the case of public debt: at this point, Poland, with debt in the amount of 50.1% of GDP in 2014 is much better in comparison to the EU average amounting to 86.8% of GDP.
The research indicates that European funds lead in the long term to a permanent and significant improvement in the stability of public finance, measured by deficit to
Chart 6. Impact of the cohesion policy on the result of the
2004
GDP are public debt to GDP. Over all the years of the analysed period, the cohesion policy had a positive impact on both aforementioned ratios. On the one hand, it was the result of GDP growth thanks to funds of the cohesion policy, and, on the other hand, it involved expansion of the taxation base as a result of the economic development. That led to an improved result of the government and local government sector, and, as a consequence, to restricted increase in public debt in relation to GDP.
Funds from the European funds in 2014 contributed to reducing the deficit by approx. 2.2 p.p. Average annually in the years 2004-2014 the analysed relation was lower thanks to these funds by about 1.1 p.p.
Source: Prepared by the author based on the data of the Central Statistical Office (GUS) and the results of macroeconomic models.
A smaller deficit of the public sector, as a result of inflow of funds from the EU, is reflected in the improved public debt to GDP. Additionally, it is fostered by the appreciation of zloty caused by the inflow of European funds, thanks to which the debt fixed in foreign currencies becomes lower when expressed in zlotys. In consequence, a positive impact of the cohesion policy on the public debt in relation to GDP was estimated in 2014 at approx. 8.6 p.p.
general government sector in relation to GDP in the years ■ 2014
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
3,0 1,0 -1,0 -3,0 -5,0 -7,0 -9,0 -11,0
impact of the cohesion policy (p.p.)
■ result of GG sector in relations to GDP (%)
,01-2,2
0.0
Chart 7. Impact of the cohesion policy on the length of the general government sector in relation to GDP in the years
2004-2014
-10,0
-20,0 -
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Prepared by the author based on the data of the Central Statistical Office and the results of macroeconomic models.
Positive effects of the cohesion policy for the public finance sector are thus a special surplus over their consequences related to the need for obtaining funds for co-financing projects receiving support from the EU. It can, therefore, be concluded that the cohesion policy also contributes to stabilized attitudes on financial markets and, at the same time, reduces the probability of economic perturbations related to the elimination of foreign capital from Poland, sudden depreciation of zloty, insolvency of companies and other, negative consequences of loss of trust in the Polish economy, which occurred as a result of excessive indebtedness of the state.
Cohesion policy and international exchange In 2014, the total value of product turnover (in payment terms) in Poland was running at the level of EUR
316.1 billion (including export amounted to EUR 157.2 billion and import amounted to EUR 158.9 billion). In the years 2004 - 2014, the value of foreign trade turnover increased almost four times. In the years 2004 - 2014, the export dynamics in Poland was twice as high as GDP dynamics and it was one of driving forces of the Polish economy.
The balance of current turnover in 2014 was 1.4% of GDP and was one of the lowest levels from the moment of Poland's accession to the EU (next to 2013 when it was 1.3% GDP).
EU funds affect in many different ways the balance of international exchange. The research findings indicate that the cohesion policy contributes to deepened deficit of current turnover in relation to GDP (on average by 1.5 p.p. annually).
Chart 8. Impact of the cohesion policy on the balance on current turnover in relation to GDP in the years 2004-2014
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 3,0--
1,0
-1,0
-3,0
-5,0
■ ¡mpact of the cohesion policy (p.p.)
■ estimated balance of current turnover in relations to GDP without the cohesion policy (%) -9,0 -
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
impact of the cohesion policy (p.p.)
estimated balance of current turnover in relations to GDP without the cohesion policy (%)
: Prepared by the author based on the data of the Central Statistical Office (GUS) and the results of macroeconomic models.
The inflow of funds from the EU, causing growth in consumption and investment demand, stimulates growth in import, whereas on the part of export the effects of improved economy competitiveness may be eliminated by consequences of the zloty appreciation. According to the research findings, growth in import was maintained throughout the whole analysed period, since all the time new funds were inflowing to Poland, whose part was allocated for additional import.
Conclusions
The previous impact of the cohesion policy on the social and economic development of Poland was positive. European funds largely affected economic growth, investment activity and labour market in Poland, as well as interior and external balance of the economy.
The research findings indicate that EU funds brought the acceleration of GDP growth, as a result of which Poland suffered the effects of the global financial crisis to a much lower degree. The use of European funds
accelerated the process of convergence of the real economy to EU countries. EU funds brought about also a noticeable growth in employment and decrease in unemployment. A positive effect of the European cohesion policy is visible in the creation of new jobs, improvement in employee qualifications and better adaptation to changing conditions on the labour market.
The implementation of the cohesion policy was contributing not only to reduced distance of Poland in respect of the average level of socio-economic development of EU countries, but also to restricted processes of internal differentiation. Since the beginning of the accession, the distance in economic development dividing all Polish regions from the average EU has been decreasing gradually. However, a question arises as to whether the traditionally understood cohesion policy becomes a thing of the past and the present development policy is anti-cyclical in the assumption and supports territorial potentials rather than reduction in divergences? It is also difficult to speak about regional policy, as the addressees of this new policy are no longer regions, but functional territories (macroregions, cities, rural areas,
other areas) [15]. Hence, it can be stated that we are dealing with a policy that is used mainly for achieving European goals. It is worth emphasizing that since 2010 the relative role of funds has been dropping in relation to GDP. However, it should be expected that in the period of possible future turbulences in the economy and the lack of real system changes EU funds will keep on maintaining large role and importance in financing public investments. It is also worth noticing that any possible limitation in funds after 2020 may result in return to the condition from before 2004, which would be exceedingly unfavourable for the economy of Poland.
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