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In order to prevent this alliance the subject of Syria has again been raised. The point is that this problem continues to disunite Tehran and Ankara. A blow at Asad's positions should evoke a retaliatory reaction of Iran, including with regard to Turkey. This may lead to a definite loss of independence in the actions of the Erdogan government and its closer interaction with Washington and NATO.
As a result of this game the key regional players - Iran and Turkey - should become weaker. This situation may become advantageous to Moscow, and in a longer perspective it may increase Washington's control over prices. Besides, Turkey, having lost hopes for receiving its share of raw material advantage, will be more interested in lower prices, which will have a negative effect on sociopolitical stability in Russia.
In this situation Russia is interested in the stabilization of relations between Iran, on the one hand, and Turkey and the "Muslim Brothers," on the other. The situation in Egypt may become a foundation for their rapprochement. This possibility does really exist, taking into account that the basic interest for Turkey and for Iran are presented by the rich monarchies of the Persian Gulf, but not the economically more costly projects - Syria and Egypt.
"Vestnikpolitiki," 2014, No 1.
Bahtiyar Ahmedkhanov,
Journalist
THEATER OF TERRORIST OPERATIONS
The modern world is restless, the number of problem-plagued regions is growing, and this process cannot be stopped. But it is possible to determine certain tendencies and find potential troubled spots.
Naturally, we are not going to forecast anthropogenic catastrophes and interstate conflicts. However, we can name regions where violence caused by international terrorism will be observed.
The Cloying Caucasus
Inasmuch as we are mostly interested in Russia we shall begin with it, or, to be more exact, with its North Caucasian republics, which have been a pain in the neck for Moscow tormenting it for more than twenty years. Despite countless special operations and cheery reports about regular eliminations of leaders of bandit underground gangs, their number does not diminish. There is nothing surprising, because the struggle is being waged not with the cause of the problem, but with its consequence. Moreover, the very reason for the existing and even growing terrorist activity has not been properly determined.
The North Caucasus has always been a region with redundant workforce. From olden times men have been leaving it for other regions of Russia, and even foreign lands, in search of work. Later they came back, built homes, married and started families. Nobody complained about the absence of work and took an automatic rifle instead of it. If there was no job at home, well, it will be found at some other place.
In our day whoever needs a job can find it at his place, if he so wishes. Another problem is that there is no wish. In general, there are two main problems in the North Caucasus. The first is a subsidized economy. The twenty years of the functioning of such vicious little-controlled economy of kickbacks and distributions has brought about the abominable practice of paying federal money in exchange for security guarantees. Thus, it turns out that the federal center finances the armed groups itself, and local officials declare ever louder that their republics are in the forefront of the struggle against separatism,
extremism and terrorism, and, as is known, those who are in the front ranks should be well-fed.
"Money for loyalty" - this mechanism can work more or less smoothly for a certain period only. As a result of this shameful practice the local rulers and high officials become omnipotent and rich, while most others - poor and embittered.
Another problem. A warped economy of payoffs and distributions gives birth to a warped politics. Rank-and-file inhabitants of the North Caucasian republics who are far from taking any decisions at various levels have virtually no rights. They are humiliated at government offices, at police headquarters, and therefore their desire to avenge themselves becomes quite understandable.
The situation in the North Caucasus facilitates the activities of the forces who are interested in instability in the South of Russia. The Republic of Daghestan, the biggest in population and territory, and bordering on five foreign states (Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Kazakhstan) causes the greatest concern. It is quite possible that Daghestan can become a haven of international terrorists, just as its neighbor, Chechnya, in 1996-2000. Two factors contribute to the realization of these plans: the extremely high level of corruption of local officials, and inaccessibility of many districts, especially in the mountains close to the state border. So far there is no information about the penetration of foreign combatants in Daghestan, but they can appear there at any moment. This is an additional factor of risk, along with the already existing local underground and the steady growth of radical sentiments among local young people.
Mention should be made of the attempts to sow discord between the Sunnites and Shi'ites (there are several small Shi'ite communities in Daghestan).
Thus, we can hardly expect calm in the North Caucasus, particularly in Daghestan. The situation tends to worsen all the time, inasmuch as the existing problems remain unresolved, which fact is used by the ideologists of all and sundry extremists.
The North Caucasus is the most vulnerable part of Russia in terms of the country's security, and the forces wishing to create more problems for our state will definitely deal blows at this region. A terrorist war in the South of Russia and in Syria is advantageous to the same subjects of international politics. Syria interests them as a transit territory for gas transportation, and Russia, which supplies energy resources to Europe, as a competitor-country, which should be weakened.
The Volga Area:
Calm and Quiet Are No More There
Many experts often talk of a terrorist threat to the Volga area. Terrorists are now captured not only in Makhachkala or Nazran in the North Caucasus, but in the respectable capital of the Republic of Tatarstan, that is, in the very heart of Russia. This shows that the cause of terrorist activity lies not only in the absence of jobs. There is no problem to find a well-paid job in Kazan.
Thus, experts can draw the following conclusions from the situation in the Volga area. First, terrorist activity and the growing radical sentiments have little to do with unemployment and the low living standards. The Republic of Tatarstan is one of the most favorable regions of Russia, the level of unemployment is record low there - 1.19 percent.
In Daghestan or Ingushetia this figure is almost ten times bigger. The situation in Tatarstan has aptly been described by Rais Suleimanov, the head of the Volga Center of religious and ethnic-religious studies.
"The Islamist community in Tatarstan is represented by three sections: there is a militant wing (Mojaheds of Tatarstan), political wing (organizers of and participants in street demonstrations, meetings, pickets, etc.), and lobbyist wing - representatives of the regional bureaucracy who prevent the authorities and their special bodies to take preventive measures against the Wahhabi community." Rais Suleimanov cited an example as a vivid illustration of the existing situation. "A person named Ramil Yusupov, who had studied in Saudi Arabia and was on the wanted list by the federal authorities lived calmly and quietly under the wing of local officials in a comfortable government-owned house in Nizhnekamsk. Many people are of the opinion that bureaucrats-Islamists, while giving incentives to the growth of fundamentalist sentiments, hope to draw investments to Tatarstan from the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf."
Secondly, the experts who talked of the radicalization of the Muslim regions of the Volga area some twenty years ago proved right. At the time when the Soviet Union was quite stable and seemed unshakeable, analysts of the special services reported of a certain plan to create a gigantic arc of instability in this country, stretching from the North to the South - from the upper reaches of the Volga to the Caspian Sea and the North Caucasus. It was supposed to exacerbate the sociopolitical situation in the region to the maximum, implanting ideology alien to the traditional religious views of most local people. This would have caused a deep social conflict which would inevitable accompany the spreading of new ideology brought from the outside.
This was one of the scenarios of the collapse of the Soviet Union. The imaginary line connecting the Volga area with the North Caucasus passed along the Volga and was supposed to split the country in two. This scenario still exists, and there are influential forces in the world wishing to apply it to Russia. Although the disintegration of the
Russian Federation as a state is not advantageous to certain countries, its weakening and greater adaptableness would suit many forces.
There are other stumbling blocks, too: transportation routes of Central Asian hydrocarbons and the promising "North - South" transport corridor, which, passing through the North of European Russia, the Volga area, the Caspian Sea, Iran and Pakistan, can connect Northern Europe with India. In both cases the already existing or hypothetical routes either cross the line of the possible split or pass along it very closely. And no investor in sound mind would ever give a penny to a long-term infrastructural project if he were not one hundred percent sure of stability of the situation in the region. The presence of an armed underground which has the aim of creating a caliphate does not add any confidence to the matter.
There are as many risk factors in the Volga area as in the South of Russia. The national factor in the North Caucasus has always been more important than the religious one. In the view of many experts, this can explain the fact why the Wahhabi project based on fanning intra-confessional conflict has not been realized there.
As to the Volga area, the local Muslims are more internationally-minded, as it were. This is why they are more susceptible to the words of foreign preachers, who are regarded as bearers of really pure religion. And the number of religious radicals is growing steadily. Last October an ideological conflict reached an armed stage, and there are grounds to believe that it will continue.
An additional risk factor is uncontrolled migration. Indicative in this respect is Astrakhan region where the number of Uzbeks from Central Asia has reached 40,000 after the events in the South of Kyrgyzstan. Only 10,000 of them have Russian citizenship, the rest are either guest workers or illegal aliens. Members of the "Khizb-ut-Tahrir" party and its supporters who have moved to Astrakhan region
carry on propaganda work among Uzbek believers at mosques. As quite a few members of the Uzbek community in Astrakhan region think, in case of a new aggravation of the situation in the South of Kyrgyzstan or Uzbekistan (especially in the Ferghana Valley or after the end of President Karimov's rule) there will be an uncontrolled flow of Uzbek refugees going mainly to Astrakhan region where there is a numerous Uzbek diaspora already.
If the Uzbek authorities continue to persecute members of "Khizb-ut-Tahrir" and other banned organizations, they will inevitably move to the nearest regions of Russia, namely Astrakhan region and the Volga area. And the latter is not the only Russian region with the growing number of bearers of extreme ideology. In recent years the special services have become worried over the situation in the Urals where communities emerge adhering to fundamentalist positions, and there is information about the training of armed fighters there.
The Middle East: Conflict Is Spreading
Syria and Iraq are definitely the most troublesome countries in the Middle East. However, the wave of violence is gradually sweeping the entire region. As is known, the pro-Iranian grouping "Hezbollah" based in Lebanon has come out to support Bashar Asad from the very beginning of the Syrian conflict. This support has been growing all the time, and at present several thousand "Hezbollah" fighters take part in battles on the side of the Syrian government forces. According to rumors, officers of the Iranian special services are engaged in coordinating military operations in Syria.
On November 19, 2013, one of the days when fierce fighting was going on between the Syrian government forces jointly with "Hezbollah" from Lebanon and Iranians, on the one hand, and the militants, on the other, and negotiations proceeded in Geneva, two
explosions took place at the gates of the Iranian mission in the southern part of Beirut. These suicide terrorist acts caused twenty-five casualties and about 150 wounded people.
Responsibility for these acts was taken by the jihad grouping "Teams of Abullah Azzam" - branch of "Al Qaeda" in the Eastern Mediterranean. It can well be assumed that the main aim of these acts was to punish Iran and "Hezbollah" for their participation in the Syrian events, as well as to provoke Iran to certain harsh steps and thwart negotiations with the United States.
As is known, these acts of terror have not influenced the course of negotiations, and the assistance of Iran and "Hezbollah" to the Asad regime has not stopped. But the situation in Lebanon itself has become more strained.
The situation is also aggravated by the factor of Syrian refugees whose number in Lebanon exceeds 400,000. Naturally, many of them are full of bitterness and accuse Sunnites, Alawis, and representatives of other confessions of their misfortune. All this exacerbates very difficult intercommunal relations, complex as they are.
Maghreb: We'll Go up North!
In 2013 "Al Qaeda" was defeated in countries of Islamic Maghreb by the French forces, and after that it lost control over the northern districts of Mali. Thus the aim of "Al Qaeda" - to create a caliphate in the vast region to the south of the Sahara from Algeria to Eritrea has not materialized.
"Al Qaeda" in the countries of Islamic Maghreb is represented by small bands, groups and cells scattered all over North Africa. As a result of the operations of the French military forces, most "Al Qaeda militants had to leave Mali and now they "search for dirty jobs" in other countries. Experts believe that they are likely to move to Libya and
Tunisia. First, because the armies of these countries are weak and ineffective and will hardly be able to oppose the well-organized and well-armed units of "Al Qaeda" jihadists. Secondly, there are their own rebels in both Tunisia and Libya, who could be useful to terrorist operations. In the 1990s "Al Qaeda" attempted to entrench itself on the Mediterranean coast of Algeria, but was thrown back to the south by the Algerian army and special services. Its present march to the Mediterranean may be more successful.
Africa: Somalia and Nigeria
Somalia has long been considered the most troublesome country on the African continent where a civil war has been raging since 1991 up to our days. In 2013 a central government emerged in that country for the first time in twenty years. True, it does not control the vast territory in the south of the country which is ruled by the terrorist "Ash Shabaab" grouping. The government, in general, controls very little, judging by the frequency and impudence of the militants' actions.
The "Ash Shabaab" operates not only in Somalia. In September 2013 it seized a big trade center in Nairobi (Kenya) killing about sixty people and wounding many others, and in July 2010 in several explosions near a stadium in Kampala (Uganda) 70 people fell victim to terrorists. The latest attempt to commit an act of terror was made in Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) during which the two terrorists assembling home-made explosive devices died.
The geographic location of terrorist acts is quite understandable. Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia, just as Sierra Leone, Burundi and Djibouti have dispatched their troops to Somalia within the framework of the African Union's counter-terrorist operation. Inasmuch as the "Ash Shabaab" has not been destroyed so far, the territory of its activity will definitely widen. At present the grouping is engaged in military
operations in the south of the country, Mogadishu, in particular. It controls the customs service in some ports of Somalia and receives considerable sums from criminal transactions. It also has training camps in several places and movable headquarters and command posts, which enable its militants to escape strikes of American drones.
Experts are greatly worried over more active traffic between the Somali and Yemeni militants, and also jihadists from other countries.
Foreign combatants coming to take part in military operations in Somalia are also engaged in terrorist activity. Experts explain it by the struggle for oil, which is beginning in the region. It used to be extracted there prior to 1991, though not too much, although it was supposed that oil deposits were very rich. In 2012 geological forecasts were confirmed. Experts of the Canadian Horn Petroleum Company made prospecting drilling and announced that oil reserves on the shelf of East Africa and Yemen could be compared to those in Iraqi Kurdistan.
Energy companies of the United States, Britain, Canada and other countries are competing for Somali oil. However, the development of deposits in a situation when everybody fights everybody is simply impossible. The key actors are interested in stability.
On July 23, 2013, a terrorist act took place at the Turkish Embassy in Mogadishu, in which three people died. The "Ash Shabaab" claimed responsibility for it. The reason was that Turkey is an insufficiently Islamic country and therefore should have been punished.
However, everything was much simpler. In actual fact Turkey was punished for its too great activity. In 2010 Istanbul was the venue of an international conference on settling the situation in Somalia with the participation of Somali political figures, businessmen and elders. In 2011 Turkey earmarked more than $200 million for overcoming the
consequences of draughts, and that very year it was the first country to reopen its diplomatic mission in Mogadishu and establish a regular air transport link with Somalia. Apart from that, Turkey took part in quite a few infrastructural projects promising real progress for the country.
Two other regions of Africa, which are often mentioned in connection with terrorists and pirates, are Nigeria and the Gulf of Guinea. In the early autumn of 2013 the news was circulated about the death of the "Boko Haram" leader Abubakar Sheku. However, his death (if it is true) gives no grounds to hope for a speedy defeat of the grouping. The point is that "Boko Haram" is based in the northern districts of Nigerai where there is no oil. The poor North is of secondary importance for the country's budget and therefore it can be hoped that "Boko Haram" is the only argument which local politicians can use in a difficult dialogue with the central authorities.
In 2015 presidential elections are to be held in Nigeria and the incumbent president Goodluck Jonathan will definitely wish to be reelected for a new term, which, in the observers' view, violated the unwritten rule according to which Jonathan, born in the Niger delta, should give his place to a person from the North of the country.
Until now "Boko Haram" carried out its operations only on the territory of Nigeria. There has been no reliable information about this grouping's connections with terrorists in other countries. However, they can emerge at any moment. The interests of many countries are widely represented in Nigeria whose objects can become the aim of radical militants.
A brief analysis of the situation makes it possible to presume that the number of flash points in the world will increase in the future. The activity of radical Islamists will definitely grow in Russia, the Maghreb countries, in Africa to the south of Sahara, and in the Middle East. If one looks attentively at the theater of terrorist operations, he will see
that the radicals, sometimes contrary to their will, become hostages of a big geopolitical game in Eurasia.
"Odnako," Moscow, 2014, February -March, pp. 134-144.
Sh. Kashaf,
Leading expert at Russian Academy
of Government Service, Moscow
D. Mukhetdinov,
Ph. D. (Political sciences). Rector
of Nizhny Novgorod Islamic University
RECOGNITION OF IDENTITY: DISCOURSE
OF THE ELITE AND POLITICAL CLASS
OF MUSLIM COMMUNITY OF RUSSIA
(Continuation)
In this context more attention should be paid to certain aspects of the visit of the President of Tatarstan R. Minnikhanov to Saudi Arabia in March 2013. He discussed the prospects of a Saudi-Russian meeting of top managers of the two world banks - the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the Islamic Bank of Development.
At the start of his visit to Saudi Arabia President Minnikhanov made umra, or "small hajj" to Mecca1.
For three years, from 2010 to 2012, the name of the head of the Chechen Republic, R. Kadyrov, was included in the "Top-500" of the "Politics" section of the international rating of world leaders. He has established "firm order in Chechnya and put under strict control all institutions of power in the republic"2.
In December 2012 and in August 2013 one of these authors carried out a sociological surveillance of Islamic figures whose communities are members of the Spiritual Board of Muslims of the European part of Russia. Its aim was to reveal the most authoritative,
