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УДК 33
АНАЛИЗ ВЛИЯНИЯ САНКЦИЙ И ЭМБАРГО НА ВНЕШНЕТОРГОВУЮ ПОЛИТИКУ РОССИИ
А. А. Дудко
Руководитель по иностранному языку - Е. В. Астапенко
Сибирский государственный аэрокосмический университет имени академика М. Ф. Решетнева
Российская Федерация, 660037, г. Красноярск, просп. им. газ. «Красноярский рабочий», 31
Дается обзор влияния введенных против России санкций и ответного эмбарго на российскую внешнеторговую политику. Также представлен анализ внешнеторгового оборота России за последнее время в разрезе экспортно-импортных операций, а также по основным странам и группам стран, который показал, что объемы торговли России с большинством стран, поддержавших антироссийские санкции, заметно сократились. Основным выводом проведенного анализа является то, что до кризиса на Украине нашими главными торговыми партнерами были страны Европы, то на сегодня все большую долю в торговом обороте с Россией стали играть страны Востока.
Ключевые слова: санкции, торговля, внешнеторговая политика, экспорт, импорт, замещение.
THE IMPACT ANALYSIS OF SANCTIONS AND EMBARGO ON THE RUSSIAN FOREIGH TRADE POLICY
A. A. Dudko Foreign Language Supervisor - E. V. Astapenko
Reshetnev Siberian State Aerospace University 31, Krasnoyarsky Rabochy Av., Krasnoyarsk, 660037, Russian Federation
The article gives an overview of the impact of the sanctions imposed against Russia and Russian retaliatory embargo on the trade policy. Also the article presents the analysis of Russia's foreign trade in recent years in the context of export-import operations, as well as by the main countries and groups of countries, which showed that the volume of trade between Russia and the majority of countries that supported the anti-Russian sanctions were considerably reduced.
The main conclusion of the conducted analysis is that before the crisis in Ukraine, our main trading partners were European countries, today a growing share in the trade turnover with Russia began to play the Orient.
Keywords: sanctions, trade, foreign trade policy, export, import substitution.
In the spring of 2014 the Russian Federation recognized the election of the independence of Crimea and Sevastopol from Ukraine and their entry into Russia. In response, the EU countries, North America and Australia adopted the first package of sanctions, which represented the restriction of entry of some officials of the Russian Federation, as well as the freezing of their assets in foreign banks.
Subsequently, two more packages of sanctions were adopted because of destabilization of the situation in Ukraine. Also, the reason of the imposition of restrictions was the fact that Russia was accused of a plane crash which took off from the territory of Holland.
The sanctions were extended to various sectors of the economy: trade, finance, industry, military sphere, diplomacy. In this article we'll consider the impact of the restrictions anda retaliatory embargo.
For this analysis, we need to resort to the figures characterizing Russia's trade activities and the same figure a year earlier.
The overall results of Russia's foreign trade in million dollars
January-April 2014 January-April 2015 growth rate %
Turnover 265745,6 178846,7888 67,3
Export 171116,4 122005,9932 71,3
Import 94629,1 57723,751 61
Balance 76487,3 64336,4 -
The foreign trade turnover of the Russian Federation for the first 4 months of 2015 amounted to 179.7 billion dollars. Compared to the previous year, the turnover decreased by 32.4 %. If we talk about the balance, it shows a positive dynamic and it's 64.3 billion dollars which is 12.2 billion less than in the previous year. Exports amounted to 122 billion which is 29 % less than last year. It can be concluded that the sanctions and the embargo had a direct impact on the trading activity of Russia. The main indicators fell by almost a third, which caused a certain load on the GDP and the state budget.
Next, consider how things are going with the export of individual products which form the basis of all exports from the Russian Federation. They include: food stuffs and agricultural raw materials (except textile),mineral products, fuel and energy products, chemical industry, raw hides, furs and their products, wood and pulp paper products.
Now let's consider the export of the most important goods from Russia in January - April 2014-2015. The main goods exported by Russia to foreign countries became fuel and energy products which share occupied 68 % of the total exports. The last year's indicator was equal to 75.6 %.
The cost volume of these products also underwent a change - it fell by 35 %, the physical volume increased by 10.3 %. In particular, the export of oil increased by 10 %, electricity - by 40 %, oil products -by 27 %.
The proportion of metals in the export structure was almost 10 %, the last year's indicator was equal to 7 %. The cost fell by 0.6 %, the physical volume increased by 13 %.
Chemical industry showed a positive dynamic - in the past year, its share in exports was 4.9 %, whereas in January-April 2015 it was 6.4 %.
Now let's see how things are going with the imports of basic commodities into the territory of the Russian Federation in 2014-2015.
Russia's imports in January-April of 2015 amounted to 57.7 billion US dollars and compared to January-April 2014 it was down by 39.0 %. The main share of imports of the Russian Federation was machinery and equipment. They accounted for around 48 % for the first four months, last year this figure was 50 %. The cost volume fell by 40 %
Chemical industry in imports was 19 %, in January-April 2015 - 16.4 %. The cost volume of the import of chemical products decreased by 28.9 % in comparison with January-April 2014, while the physical volume - by 13.2 %. The physical supply volumes of cosmetics were down by 13.0 %, plastics and articles thereof - by 26.5 %, rubber and articles thereof - by 27.5 %.
The share of foodstuffs in imports amounted to 13.8 % (2014 - 14.5 %). With regard to the monetary and physical volumes, they were reduced in comparison with the previous year by 40 % and 26 %, respectively.
Now let's take a look at the Russian foreign trade on the main countries and groups of countries.
The European Union takes a leading role in the country structure of Russia's foreign trade as the largest economic partner of the country. The share of the European Union in January-April 2015 accounted for 45.7 % of Russian trade turnover (in January-April 2014 - 49.5 %), the CIS countries - 11.8 % (13.1 %), the EAEC country - 7.1 % (6.6 %), the APEC countries - 27.9 % (25.7 %).
The main trade partners of Russia in January-April 2015 among non-CIS countries were: China, which trade amounted to 20.6 billion US dollars (70.6 % compared to January-March 2014), Germany -15.4 billion US dollars (64.8 %), the Netherlands - 15.0 billion US dollars (62.3 %), Italy - 11.6 billion US dollars (71.5 %), Turkey - 9.0 billion US dollars (84.5 %), Japan - 8.2 billion US dollars (79.4 %), the US -7.1 billion US dollars (79.8 %), Republic of Korea - 6.0 billion US dollars (72.1 %), Poland - $ 4.5 billion US dollars (52.9 %), France - 3.8 billion US dollars (56.8 %) [1, 2, 4, 5, 7].
All these changes were also affected by the growth rate of world trade. Nowadays it's going through hard times. WTO has worsened forecasts for global trade.
World trade is recovering too slowly after the crisis. Experts of the World Trade Organization (WTO) which have worsened the forecasts for 2015 and 2016 came to this conclusion.
In 2014 the turnover of world trade for the third time in a row was below 3 % (2.8 %), in the current year, according to the WTO, the rate will accelerate to 3.3 %, and in the future - to 4 %. But in September the organization believed that the rate will take a barrier of 4 % this year.
The weak foreign trade dynamic is explained by the fact that in developing countries the rate of economic growth is too low while in developed countries it's uneven. In addition, trade is affected by geopolitical factors.
And at first, the negative impact of the embargo on retail prices was weak.
Firstly, the restrictions were introduced in August, when the seasonal decline in prices could neutralize or soften the rise in prices of products because of the embargo. Secondly, Russian suppliers accumulated pretty large stocks of products, their deficit didn't begin to be felt immediately. Third, when the stocks started coming to an end, many suppliers had time to adjust deliveries from those countries which the embargo did not extend to.
Finally, some were able to organize the supply of products through third States where the country of origin of those goods was illegally or semi-legally restructured. Belarus became a main transit center for such operations, the Faroe Islands and Greenland became other center sof renewal of the country of origin (for fish from Norway), Serbia and Turkey (for fruit and vegetable products). Adding new intermediaries increased the value of the goods, but such schemes helped to mitigate their deficit.
Consumers in the Kaliningrad region were most affected by the rise in prices caused by the restrictions. At the time of the embargo this region depended on imports of dairy products by 70 %, by 50 % - from the supply of fruit and vegetables and by 40 % - on imports of poultry meat from the EU. Soon after the introduction of anti-sanction prices for some products increased by 1.5-2 times there. Local authorities and suppliers had high hopes for the substitution of the products from the EU countries by Belarusian goods, but vendors from Belarus in many cases dramatically increased purchase prices. But the problems with the supply of the region were partly mitigated by the "gray" trade, which will be discussed below.
Russian companies were able to replace most of the products from the US and The EU which import was embargoed. Some types of cheese, fish and seafood proved to be problematic categories. But prices continue to rise even on the substituted products.
Imports of dairy products decreased by 57 %, pork - by 45 %, vegetables - by 44 %, poultry meat -by 39 %. The only item from the sanctions list showing an increase of supply is beef: in August it was imported by 47 % more.
The surveyed retailers and restaurateurs argue that they managed to fill in the shelves and menus by analogues of the most part of lost headings. "We were able to replace most of the products either by Russian analogues, or by products from the countries which imports are allowed", - says a representative of hypermarkets Metro C & C Oksana Tokarev. In O'key hypermarket, they didn't notice a significant narrowing of the assortment, because previously they worked mainly with Russian suppliers and distributors, says its representative ArtemGlushchenko.X5 Retail Group ("Crossroads", "Pyaterochka", "Carousel" and others.) and "Dixie" ("Dixie", "Victoria" and others.) also found alternative products.
There were least of all problems with the replacement of the so-called borscht set: potatoes, onions, carrots, cabbage, beets, as well as seasonal apples, citrus fruits, melons. "The domestic crop is good and the prices are even slightly declining, - says Head of Public Relations X5 Vladimir Rusanov. - In prospect tomatoes and cucumbers will also be available in a sufficient amount". X5 puts a domestic plum, plus buys it in Serbia, grenades and rocket salad are imported from Israel into its distribution centers, grapes are imported from Turkey, peaches - from Georgia, apples "Gala" - from Azerbaijan. "O'key" signed a contract for direct supply of vegetables and fruits from Turkey and is currently in talks with Israeli, Iranian and Moroccan producers. "Dixie" also increases the load of the Russian partners - from the Kuban and Stavropol Territory. Exotic fruits will be ordered from Asia, Latin America and Africa
Russian producers almost entirely replaced imported dairy products except cheese in Russian stores. For example, "Dixie" replaced Finnish sour cream by Russian. In this category, as noted by representatives of trading companies, domestic producers are competitive.
The downside of such substitutions became a massive revision of price lists. Almost all diary suppliers warn about increasing procurement prices by 7-10 %, motivating it with weakening of the ruble and the growth of raw material prices.
Also, despite the fact that Russia was almost self-sufficient in poultry meat, it's chicken meat that was the leader in the growth of prices: since the beginning of the year, according to Rosstat, it added 13.8 % in the value. Retailers attribute this to the emerged deficit of another product earlier this year - pork bacon: to compensate for the shortage of raw materials, manufacturers of sausage and frankfurters began buying chicken.
The largest pork producers also claim price increases by 8-10 %. They managed to replace premium beef without any problems: in "O'kay" there is already meat for sale from South America, New Zealand and Uruguay. In Metro premium beef was delivered from Argentina and New Zealand.
The most difficult thing to do was to replace imported cheeses: so far there is a certain amount of fallen under the embargo European brands in stores, but in a few weeks from the category of "elite" only Swiss cheese will stay. In Globus hypermarkets, according to a company representative Natalia Rychkova, European cheeses managed to fill only 10 %. It is difficult to find analogues of French cheeses (Camembert, Brie), brine and fresh Italian cheeses, as well as sheep and goat Spanish cheeses. Globus continues to look for a replacement for hard cheeses - parmesan cheese and Maasdam. "Dixie" report that they found a replacement for the European Maasdam in Israel - it's now being certified.
It is impossible to not touch upon the political component of this issue. As is known the United States is the main initiator the imposition of sanctions on the Russian side. But let's see how things work in trade activities between the two countries.
The imposed sanctions against Russia failed to decrease the volume of the foreign trade turnover with the United States and it clearly shows that the US government acted solely in their own interests with the introduction of the sanctions, said Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich. "It should be remembered that everyone acts in their own interests", - concluded the Russian Deputy Prime Minister.
At the end of 2014 the volume of trade between Russia and the majority of countries that supported the anti-Russian sanctions were considerably reduced. For example, indicators of trade with Portugal fell by 41.2 %, according to the Federal Customs Service (FCS), with Greece - by 39.2 %, with Hungary -by 27.5 %, with the UK - by 21.3 %, with Lithuania - by 20.5 %.
The trade between other EU countries dropped more slowly. For example, the volume of trade with Poland fell by 17.6 %, France - by 17.5 %, Finland -by 14.7 %, Italy - by 10 %, Germany - by 6.5 %. The volume of Russia's trade with other countries which announced the introduction of the sanctions against it also fell, although not as significantly. In particular, the volume of trade with Canada fell by 3 %, Japan -by 7.3 %, Norway - by 18.5 %.
One of the few countries which trade with Russia against the background of the sanctions only grew, were the United States. Following the results of 2014 the volume of Russian-American trade has increased by 5.6 % and amounted to about 29.2 billion dollars. The volume of imports of American goods to Russia has grown by 12.1 % - to 18.5 billion dollars. The US share of Russia's foreign trade has increased from 3.3 % to 3.7 % in 2014
At that the import of food products reduced greatly.
In particular, foreign purchases of dairy products decreased by 5.6 times, fish - by three times, sugar -by 2.9 times, meat -by 2.3 times, fruits - by 90 %, and vegetables - by 70 %. In general, food imports in Russia decreased by 44.3 %
In conclusion, it should be noted that:
• If before the crisis in Ukraine, our main trading partners were European countries then today a growing share in the trade turnover with Russia began to play the Eastern countries;
• The best trade figures were in 2012-2013. At that time the trade turnover between the countries of Europe and Russia reached the maximum results;
• Russia still remains on the "oil needle". The share of oil in exports in the Russian Federation is 30 %. If we talk about the rest of mineral resources, this value is about 70 %;
• The largest share in the structure of imports belongs to: foodstuffs, machinery and equipment as well as drugs;
• In 2014, Russia adopted a number of measures to ensure the economic security of the country. Today the policy of import substitution of agricultural products is in full swing.
References
1. Otchet importa I eksporta tovarov v Rossiyu, FTS 2014. (Import-export of goods in Russia. Report). Mailing List available at: http://www.customs.ru/index.php?id=13858&Itemid= 2095& option=com_content&view=article,25 June [25 June 2015].
2. Otchet FTS o vneshnetorgovoi deyatel'nosti Rossii zayanvar' - aprel' 2015 goda (International trade of Russia. January-April 2015. Report). Mailing List available at: http://www.customs.ru/ index.php?id=13858&Itemid =2095&option=com_content&view=article, 25 June [25 June 2015].
3. Ukaz o primenenii otdel'nykh spetsial'nykh ekonomicheskikh mer v tselyakh obespecheniya bezopasnosti Rossiiskoi Federatsii ot 6 avgusta 2014 goda (On applying certain special economic measures to ensure security of the Russian Federation). Mailing List available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/ president/news/46404/, 25 June [25 June 2015].
4. Doklad Ministerstva ekonomicheskogo razvitiya - Torgovo-ekonomicheskoe sotrudnichestvo mezhdu Rossiiskoi Federatsiei i Yaponiei. (report of the Ministry of economic development -trade and economic cooperation between RF and Japan). Mailing List available at:http://www.ved.gov.ru/ exportcountries/jp/jp_ru_relations/jp_ru_trade,01 June [01 June 2015].
5. Doklad Ministerstva ekonomicheskogo razvitiya - Vneshnyaya torgovlya Rossii s Avstraliei. Mailing List available at: http://www.ved.gov.ru/files/images/ country/Australia/Foreign, 01 June [01 June 2015].
6. Doklad ob ekonomike Rossii. Vsemirnyi bank, aprel' 2015 (The World Bank.Russia Economic Report). Mailing List available at: http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/ Worldbank/document/ eca/russia/rer33- rus.pdf, 28 July [28 July 2015].
© AYAKO A. A., 2016
