CC BY
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наддержавою, яка визначала nepe6iz полтичних процеЫв як в mm чи тшт крагт, так й в окремому регюш в щлому. Слабка позищя Росы на мiжнаpoднiй арен в 90-х роках минулого столття довзолила евроатлантичнт коалщы провести агресивну втсъкову кампатю проти Сербы, а отже, тдтримавши сецесютстсъю процеси Косова. В cmаmmi наголошуетъся, що е декшъка мemoдiв тдтримки сепаратистсъких процеЫв, а саме, тформацтна, фтансова, техтчна, гуматтарна, тформацтна, втсъкова. Розглядаютъся так cкладoвi зовтшнъого впливу на етносепаратистсъкий конфлт в Косово як тформацтна, тд час яког в свтовт преЫ вiдбувалаcя антисербсъка кампатя; техтчна та фтансова в межах яких терористична оргатзащя Apмiя визволення Косова отримувала фтансову тдтримку вiд Заходу, а також техтчну, тобто США постачали бойовикам зброю; втсъкова - тд час цъого виду тдтримки евроатлантична коалщя провела втсъкову кампатю проти Сербы, тд час яког загинуло декыъки тисяч людей та зруйнована тфраструктура. Кpiм того, автор аналiзуе завдання, як1 США ставила перед собою тд час ще'г втсъковог агресы та гг на^дки.
Ключов1 слова: сепаратизм, етносепаратистсъкий конфлтт, геноцид, зовшшш чинники, Косово.
РЕЦЕНЗЕНТИ: Войналович В.А., д.полт.н, проф.; Трофименко М.В.,
к.полт.н, доц.
УДК 330(438)"1991/2014"(045)
M. Ryba
THE PRIORITIES OF THE POLISH ECONOMY IN THE LAST 25 YEARS
IN THE UKRAINIAN CONTEXT
Ukrainian economy faces the huge strategic challenges at present. The great example may be the experiences of the other countries, such the Poland's economic policy from the near past. The Polish economy in the last 25 years of its sovereignty and almost permanent economic development, has become a developed economy recently. How did it happen that two economies, which started from the very similar point and from the same level of the GDP per capita, go the very different way and develop significantly differently?
What were the key challenges and priorities of the Polish economy? Is there any key in order to avoid the mistakes and the middle income trap ? Which tools and strategy is crucial to implement in order to release the full potential of the Ukrainian economy? The world seem to be more and more dynamic, especially in the last years and even months The significant context of the deliberation is the current Ukrainian situation and its challenges, which using the Polish experience and at the same time being very similar in many issues, could avoid many structural and strategic mistakes in the economic development.
Key words: Poland, Ukraine, development, transformation, economy, reforms.
POLAND 1989
Poland's economic transition is one of the most impressive transformations of the last 25 years in the world and one of the most positive examples of the European changes after the collapse of the Iron Curtain, unless the brightest. In 1989 Poland was one of the poorest countries among those transforming in the Central-Eastern Europe, including those which
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were still part of the Soviet Union, and almost twice poorer than the Czech Republic and half poorer than Hungary. From a practically bankrupt country, with a very low (about 1.700 USD) GDP per capita, a huge public debt, an inefficient industry and also highly corrupted, Poland became developed in a real terms and one of the fastest economically increasing in Europe. How did it happen and how it was possible to increase without any recession for almost 25 years? The answer is not easy, however the key points are reforms, a healthy economic system and releasing the people's energy and creativity.
The crucial moment was the year of 1989 when Poland as the first country in the Eastern part of the Iron Curtain carried out the semi-democratic elections which allowed to appoint a new opposition government. Although the first real economic changes became already in 1988, particularly the business activity law, the most important reforms were established in 1989 and also named by the current new Minister of Finance, professor Leszek Balcerowicz.
Before we mention about the reforms, let us look back at the situation of Polish economy at the starting point. Poland, as the rest of the communist states, had the centrally planned economy where state's property was absolutely fundamental and privileged. Although the first private companies already existed, the real boom has not come yet. The industry, although super-important and essential part of GDP, was inefficient, too employed and underdeveloped. The state suffered the lack of capital and goods what was noticeable for instance in shops, equipped usually only in vinegar what is the symbol of the 80s. until today. Despite the higher demand than supply, the salaries were extremely low even in purchasing power parity. Poland was deeply corrupted state where even small things were difficult to solve without a special gratitude. As the rural country, where agriculture was also an important part of GDP, this part was underdeveloped as well and did not supply the citizens enough. To make matters worse, the Polish public debt, particularly international debt, was extremely high because of the loans from the 70s. when economy invested huge amounts of borrowed money in industry and constructions. The most symbolic and noticeable thing were increasing prices because of the higher and higher inflation.
EXPERIENCES OF THE POLISH REFORMS
Now it is a time to understand what was implemented on January 1, 1990 when the Balcerowicz reforms entered into force of an act. Shortly before Balcerowicz said: 'We need to end up with the false game where people pretend to work and the state pretend to pay. This dozen days may decide about the years (...) The situation is extremely difficult, but waiting may only make it worse. The society will approve the program only if the goals and results are clear. There will be no system changes when the inflation exists. Thus, the first hit must be aimed there". The Plan comprised ten economic acts. One of the first and the most important issue was a liberalization of the internal prices what released a trade but also contributed to the enormous increase of inflation (which became a hyperinflation for a while at the level of about 1000%). In order to control it, the interest rate became higher over the inflation. Because of the free trade and business activity, the trade and import dramatically increased what also helped to supply the economy. What was fundamental, the rate of exchange of the American dollar became transparent and stabilized what was the consequence of a full convertibility. The banking system was completely reformed so as the credit policy and because of that international banks had an open space to invest there, change the market and teach people how to exist in capitalist world. Many inefficient public companies became privatized or simply were liquidated what certainly rebounded the increasing unemployment. A year later an income tax was implemented, the next year valued added tax (VAT) as well, becoming soon the crucial income for the budget. What is very important, because of the fact that the Balcerowicz plan was accepted by the international institutions (like International
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Monetary Fund), Poland could raise for cancelling or reducing the foreign debts what was mostly successful in the following years.
The effects of the shocked therapy were relatively quick. Although the GDP dropped in 1990 and 1991 what was impossible to avoid and was normal everywhere in this part of Europe including better developed and less reforming countries. So as in Ukraine, however the comparison of those processes I mention in the further part. Inflation in Poland decreased firstly to dozen or so and in about 10 years to only a few percent. The budget deficit disappeared in only one year and what more important the wealthy countries, which were the lenders, decided to restructure the Polish debt what became the first real help of Western world. However, Poland needed a lot of capital and the foreign direct investment which came during the coming decade, but not huge at once.
On the other hand the rapid therapy of the economy had also the other, much darker face. Because of the closing inefficient factories policy the unemployment rate increased dramatically, especially in the traditionally industrialized regions and in the villages. In Poland appeared enormous poverty areas, consumed by a structural unemployment and a social discontent what was the direct cause of many extreme views and approaches until today. Comparing to the communist time in the society appeared fast developing social stratification, which fortunately today is not high, but still constitutes an important problem for a society and an economy. Summing up, some part of the society became a beneficiary of the new system, however the other, less lucky or smart people remain poor or even poorer than during the previous regime. Moreover, professor Balcerowicz became for years, actually until today, persona non grata of many political and social environments in Poland, being a symbol of everything was went wrong in Poland after collapsing of the communist system. Many of experts or ordinary people accuse him for implementing a neocolonial system in Poland which brought about the sale of the national heirlooms like big industrial companies, banks, steelworks and also closing down the mines, shipyards or State Agricultural Farms (PGRy), what directly caused the enormous unemployment and the poverty areas. Especially the unemployment in the villages and the wild privatization is being criticized by the left side of the Polish public opinion and also experts. For example, professor Witold Kiezun, who was the economist in the US universities during the communism in Poland and today at the age of 92, assume that Polish economic transformation was a typical neocolonial transition and the Polish state created the best conditions for the Western companies in the world to earn money with the greatest rate of return, even higher than in Africa and without any risk. He gives many examples what did wrong in Poland, which companies were ready to compete with the Western ones but never had a chance to do this. He also criticizes the process of the evaluation of the Polish companies which was mostly conducted by the international institutions what devaluated their price and worth significantly. Together with the other dimensions he reckons, that the important part of the Polish economic potential was lost or even stolen. However, today we may only consider and also draw conclusions for the future, what went wrong and which parts of the transformation and reforms were less successful or failed, especially when we compare the final result with the neighbouring countries which chose the other, often a slower path. The certain is that Poland committed many little or larger mistakes which came from a lack of experienced elites or professionals, too much trust for the foreign economic experts and maybe also a huge enthusiasm for the Western lifestyle. The last point caused later the other problems like 'relishing' the Western life being in everything, from the cuisine, the local products to travelling. What is satisfactory, this - typical for young and free economies - disease disappears after about two or three decades when people are either fed up or missing of their difference, or usually both.
At this point it is necessary to mention about the other fundamental reforms or regulations and also the milestones for the economy. In 1991 the Warsaw Stock Exchange was opened, the key institution for a large and ambitious free market. In 1993 Poland became fully independent when the last Russian soldiers left the Polish borders what enabled to conduct the fully sovereign policies. Two years later the redenomination of Polish zloty (PLZ) into new Polish zloty (PLN), erased four zeros and decreased the inflation. The further fundamental step was implementing the new constitution in 1997 which included an important regulation - the public debt cannot be higher that 60% of Polish GDP. This easy provision efficiently defend against possible populists who could irresponsibly try to buy the voters. Another crucial, and also one of the best carried out reforms, was the local government change. Because of the reform from 1999 Poland consists of only 16 voivodeships (wojewodztwo), smaller poviats (powiat) and the smallest communes (gmina). At all the levels the local representatives are being chosen in the direct elections what also brings people closer and build the local awareness and responsibility. However, the most important and also symbolic events took part in 1999 and 2004. Firstly, Poland became a NATO member what gave the guarantee also for the potential foreign investors that the market and investment are safe. However, the other event was much more important from the economic perspective. Joining the European Union enabled not only to adjust the law or regulations to the most efficient one, but also opened the unprecedented inflow of funds (about 150 billion EUR in the years 2004-2020). At the end it is necessary to point out the important act from the future perspective, namely the increase of the retirement age for both men and women to 67 years old (gradually and with some exceptions, certainly).
POLAND FROM TODAY'S PERSPECTIVE
How is Poland today? GDP per capita (PPP) in 2014 will reach 24 thousand USD and is higher than Hungarian one, being twice lower in 1989. According to the newest Transparency International report, the country is ranked as 35 the least corrupted state and almost every year climbing the list. The structure of the GDP is very healthy, where 63% are services, 33% industry and only 4% of agriculture. Still pretty high (increased especially from 2009) is unemployment rate, at 11,4% (according to Eurostat only 8,7%) but is very likely to reach 67% until 2016-2017. However, at this point it is important to mention the very large emigration to the Western European countries (especially the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Norway) which is estimated between 1-2 million people. In the Doing Business ranking Poland is ranked at 32. place in the world, systematically going up (several years ago being around 70. place).
Despite being the relatively healthy economy, Poland has another crucial priorities in its strategy of development and briefly I would like to point them. The first issue is a policy of demography and migration. In the country there is one of the lowest fertility rate among the EU states. It is mainly because of the economic and not encouraging system solutions what often makes the children too expensive for young parents. The different are also the priorities for young people who prefer to make their career and want to have less children than their parents. It is impossible to solve the problem by one political decision, solutions must be the comprehensive and treated as the one and huge system and orientation change, together with migration policy. Poland as a country with extremely low rate of migrants, has a great opportunities bound up with opening the market for the foreign comers. The very important may be the heritage of the Rzeczpospolita, as traditionally multicultural state of Lithuanians, Ukrainians, Jews, Germans, Armenians, Poles of course but also different nations. The only certain thing is that every year the rate of migrants will be higher and higher, being a great chance for Polish development (certainly together with some limited threats). This issue is
crucial to develop the economy in a sustainable way, especially when the unemployment rate is going to decrease noticeably in the following years.
Another priority is the innovative and science policy. Research and development funds are much too low, being at the level of about 0,9% of Polish GDP, while the EU goal is to head minimum of 3%. The great examples are here such countries like Israel or South Korea which spend more than 4% as the future development investment. Polish funds are going to reach 1,7-1,9% until 2020, however it is still not enough if the country wants to catch the leaders and produce more hi-tech instead of the cheap products. The real opportunity are the European funds which can be spend in accordance with the innovative policy, supporting such projects. The other thing is a cooperation of the state and business, together with the universities. The private business and scientists must be also encourage to spend their money for the innovative research in order to treat it as a real investment. Only fully coordinated policy may be competitive in the changing environment of the globalized world.
The metropolitan policy is especially important nowadays as more and more people live in the cities, what is an ongoing world's process, not other in Poland. Therefore the metropolitan areas must be treated in a special way as they just mean more than in the past, being the key centres of change. One of the most important Polish problems are the sprawling suburbs which are a way worse communicated with the downtown and the working districts. In order to control the way of change the local governments must have more power of decisions what means more rights in the nationwide politics. Especially today, in the new era of building a new but well known kind of the cities - smart cities - places comfortable for its citizens not only for cars or the great industries.
POLAND'S EXPERIENCES IN THE UKRAINIAN CONTEXT
Poland may be a very good example for Ukrainian transformation because of many reasons. We should start from the historical and cultural similarities, as important as a geographical factor. All of them together cause that those two countries impact themselves significantly and this process may only be deeper and deeper. Shortly this means that the development of one of the countries will impact positively on the other country, increasing the trade, security or the mobility of the societies like the mutual migrations.
It is important to mention that in 1989 the economies of Poland and the Ukrainian part of Soviet Union were pretty similar, particularly if we take into account the level of development measured in nominal GDP per capita, which were in both of them at the level of less than 2 thousand dollars and about 5 thousand dollars in Purchasing-Power Parity (PPP). In 2012, the last stable year for such comparisons, the Polish GDP per capita (PPP) raised to more than 22 thousand dollars, while the Ukrainian raised only to about 7 thousand dollars. Unfortunately, as a result of the last events in Ukraine, during the next years this difference may still deepen. However, the way for the fast development may lie in the fast and important implementation of reforms which can be often followed on the Polish experience.
This what differ the chart of Ukrainian and Polish economic development are the huge ups and downs of the Ukrainian one. At the beginning the enormous (up to -22.55%) decrease through the 90s, then the impressive (up to 12.95%) increase of the GDP at the beginning of the new millennium. Unfortunately, followed by the another big decline in 2009, during the world crisis. The Polish chart seems much more 'boring' what means also the stability. At the beginning of the 90s. rather the significant decrease, but then from 1992 the systematic growth without even a year of recession. It is not the result of the political strategy but a significant sign of the importance of the Polish reforms from the 1990 which were mentioned previously. Despite the mistakes and the great social expenses, Polish economy did an enormous step in only 25 years of its transformation in order to be a developed economy. It did not happen only because of the great strategy, more likely is the reason of a release of the
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people's energy and creativity. Certainly the success would not be possible without the beginning reforms and a huge shock therapy at the start. Nowadays, Poland is in a totally different moment, being an important part of the united Europe and the Western civilization. However, the challenges are maybe different, but still same important. Still, Poland is a great example for the other transforming economies that the work and persistence, often very hard, lead to the success and there is always a good time to start reforming the economy.
POTENTIAL OF UKRAINE AND THE CHALLENGES
Ukraine is in the crucial moment of its transformation and development. After three 'revolutions' the country seems to be finally ready to join the Western way of the development and this path of transformation. The country must define the goal which is chasing the Europe's level of development but also remembering about the local specificity. In order to gain it the government should prepare the new and comprehensive strategy for the future and what is necessary, despite of the costs of the reforms, they should be socially accepted and approved by the society and the political class. Although the internal differences between the regions and the difficult situation in the eastern part of the country, the coherent message of the goal may unite the people. Ukraine does not need to copy and make the errors of the other transforming economies (such Poland) and learn from the mistakes what would make the process easier, less expensive socially and also cheaper. What are the most important economic challenges? Definitely the reforms of administration, banking system, opening the market for investors together with creating the good conditions for them, fighting with a corruption, partly limited privatization. Maybe the most important is the opening of the country and releasing the energy and creativity of the citizens - instead of blocking - a trust for their ideas. Here the good example may be Georgia which is one of the leading countries in the Doing Business index. What is very weighty, the Ukrainian economy has a great potential in many contexts like a heavy industry, a tourism, a social capital with the educated society, a cheaper workforce etc. The positive example of Ukrainian transformation would have a crucial impact on Russia what is the significant argument for the European Union. It seems that Ukraine did the first of the most important steps which was a final selection of the European path. The second one is reforming and a systematic growth. If this appears, both people of Ukraine and the European countries believe it was the right choice and would never abandon the way. Poland is the best example here.
REFERENCES
1. Germain E. US General Consul in Cracow, interview on 25 October 2014 [Electronic resource] / E. Germain. - Mode of access : http://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/innowacyjnosc-sposobem-na-rozwoj-polski-germain-polska-dostrzegla-swoja-wielka-szanse/cr718 [22 Dec 2014].
2. Kiezun W. Economist in the USA during the communist regime, interview on 8 November 2013 [Electronic resource] / W. Kiezun. - Mode of access : http://forsal.pl/artykuly/744722,kiezun-polska-afryka-europy-transformacja-byla-klasyczna-neokolonizacja.html [22 Dec 2014].
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4. Niedzwiedzki A. Jak wydostac si§ z peryferii? Polska polityka europejska po 1989 r. / A. Niedzwiedzki // Polityka zagraniczna Polski. 25 lat doswiadczen (Lodz 21 listopada 2014 r.) : II Konferencja Naukowa. - Lodz, 2014 r.
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Стаття надшшла до редакцп 10.12.2014 p.
М. Риба
ПРЮРИТЕТН1 НАПРЯМИ ЕКОНОМ1КИ ПОЛЬЩ1 В KOHTEKCTI ЕКОНОМ1КИ УКРА1НИ ЗА OCTAHHI 25 РОК1В
TenepiiMHiu стан справ кидае серйозний стратег1чний виклик економщ Украгни. Важливим прикладом може слугувати doceid iншиx крагн, як, наприклад eкономiчна полШика Пoлъщi у нещодавнъому минулому. За 25 остантх роюв icнування незалежног полъсъког економти та майже посттного розвитку, вона стала дуже розвиненою. Отже яким чином двi eкoнoмiчнi стратеги, як починали свт шлях з одного й того ж вiдnpавнoгo пункту та знаходилися на початку на одному й тому ж piвнi ВВП на душу населення, тшли piзними шляхами та розвивалися у дoкopiннo piзнoму напрямку?
Якими е основт виклики, з якими стикаетъся економжа Пoлъщi? Чи е який-небудъ шлях уникнення помилок та пастки середнъого прибутку? Який мехатзм та яку стратегт нeoбxiднo застосувати для того, щоброзкрити увесъ потенщал украгнсъког економжи? Свт стае дeдалi быъш динамiчним, особливо в останш роки, або навтъ мтящ. Важливим питанням для обговорення е сучасна ситуащя в Украш та виклики, з якими вона стикаетъся. Використовуючи дocвiд Пoлъщi та схож^тъ у багатъох аспектах, Украгна може уникнути багатъох структурних та cтpатeгiчниx помилок у eкoнoмiчнoму розвитку.
Ключов1 слова: Полъща, Украгна, розвиток, трансформащя, економжа, реформи.
РЕЦЕНЗЕНТИ: Ошщенко 1.Г., д.полт.н, проф.; Трофименко М.В., к.полт.н,
доц.
