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Avtandil SULABERIDZE
D.Sc. (Econ.), professor, Director of the Institute of Demography and Sociology at the Ministry of Education and Science of Georgia
(Tbilisi, Georgia).
DISTORTED MIGRATION TERMS: CUI BONO?
Abstract
T
he author discusses the specific features of forced and compulsory migration using the available statistics; he
takes an in-depth look at the compulsory migration caused by the regional ethnic conflicts in the independent post-Soviet states.
I n t r o d u c t i o n
In recent years the term “forced migration” has been frequently used to describe the population outflow from regional and ethnic conflicts zones. According to the U.N. OHCR, these migrants can be described as “refugees,” “forced migrants,” etc. In fact, the term “forced migrant” frequently appears in works by prominent experts on migration issues: V.A. Iontsev,1 V.M. Mu-komel,2 M.V. Tukhashvili,3 and others.
The Narodonaselenie (Population) encyclopedic dictionary offers the following definition of the term “forced migration:” “The sum total of territorial movements of people caused by a temporary or semi-temporary change in residence for reasons beyond their power and, frequently, contrary to their desire (natural disasters, technogenic and economic catastrophes, warfare, and violation of fundamental human rights and freedoms.” The dictionary also offered the term “compulsory migration,” which is based on the orders of civilian or military administrations (exile, deportation, etc.). International law describes forced migrants as “refugees and displaced persons.”4
Migration Behavior
The migration process is a reflection of an individual’s desire (a family member or group of people) to satisfy certain requirements (regardless of what they are) by changing his/her place of residence (temporarily or permanently). Normally it takes an individual (family member or group of people) a long time to arrive at a decision to migrate. At the same time, if the potential migrant is able
1 See: V.A. Iontsev, “Mezhdunarodnaia migratsia naselenia i demograficheskoe razvitie Rossii,” in: Mezhdunarod-naia migratsia naselenia: Rossia i sovremenny mir, MAKS Press, Moscow, 2000.
2 See: V. Mukomel, “Vooruzhennye mezhnatsional’nye i regional’nye konflikty: liudskie poteri, ekonomicheskiy ushcherb i sotsial’nye posledstvia,” in: Identichnost i konflikt v postsovetskikh gosudarstvakh, Moscow, 1977.
3 See: M. Tukhashvili, “Migratsia naselniia gruzin v XX veke,” in: Trudy Akademii ekonomicheskikh nauk Gruzii, Vol. 2, Tbilisi, 2001.
4 Narodonaselenie. Entsiklopedicheskiy slovar, B.R.E., Moscow, 1994, p. 69.
THE CAUCASUS & GLOBALIZATION
to satisfy the requirements that initially prompted him to consider migrating at home, he may decide not to change his place of residence after all.
More likely than not, migration is a voluntary act even though there may be internal and external reasons prompting migration (unemployment, the desire to improve one’s material situation, obtain an education, etc.) which may speed up or slow down the final decision.
There are cases when the decision to migrate must be made promptly, such as in the event of natural disasters—earthquakes (Georgia and Armenia, 1988); floods and landslides (Georgia, 1988); and technogenic catastrophes (Chernobyl, 1986)—such population movements are called ecological migrations.
To better understand the problem we should first investigate individual (family) migration behavior in peacetime. Normally migration takes place as the result of individual voluntary decisions. Like all other types of demographic development, migration is carried out by means of individual decisions caused by definite, mostly socioeconomic, requirements. Migration behavior is part of a fairly long process that develops in stages. Normally we skip the stages to register the result.
If the factors prompting migration disappear, the move may not take place; if different push factors appear later, the process might resume. On the whole, this is part of migration behavior rather than of the fact of migration.
If individual (family) requirements create discomfort, the idea of migration appears as a result of the requirements-possibilities conflict. The decision-making process goes through several stages: at the first stage, the fact of the conflict is realized: there is obvious dissatisfaction with the present state and potential of the situation in which a person lives, which creates the desire to migrate.
At the second stage, the desire to settle the problem on the spot is much stronger than the desire to migrate, mainly because an analysis of the available information plays a special role, whereby the potential migrant takes a sober look at the extent to which the problems that caused the desire to migrate can be resolved at the new place of residence. The cultural level and the degree of tolerance of the host population, the living standards, urbanization, and employment guarantees are among the main factors (especially in cases of emigration). Depending on their educational and cultural level and spiritual requirements, different groups of migrants treat confrontation in conflict situations differently. The social value of the components enumerated above in one’s own country compared with the potential place of residence is also important. The extent to which the individual is influenced by traditions, religion, kinship ties, etc. plays a significant part in migration activity. Suffice it to say that until 1990, 95 percent of all Georgians lived in their homeland. In so doing, two opposite driving forces of the migration process, rational and emotional considerations, come to the fore. The individual’s expectations play a positive role, while potential difficulties restrain the desire to migrate. This creates a conflict between individual interests and possible satisfaction of the individual’s requirements; consensus between them ushers in a new phase—the individual’s readiness to migrate.
At the third phase the individual looks at the prospects for himself (family) in the new place. As soon as he forms a clear idea about the future, he makes the decision to move. The final decision is also affected by the individual’s (family’s) ability to adjust to the new culture, traditions, and different socioeconomic norms in the new environment.
Compulsory Migration
Under the conditions of compulsory migration, the need to make an urgent life-saving decision upturns the normal decision-making cycle. Compulsory migration occurs for political, military, or ethnic reasons, as well as due to the desire to avoid physical violence or elimination. Compulsory migration is spontaneous since it is not a free process like all other types of migration. In the event of compulsory migration, human masses become refugees, they are left without a means of subsistence
and, contrary to normal migrants, find it hard to integrate into the new social milieu. Unlike ordinary migrants, refugees are neither psychologically nor materially ready to move. Their return depends on external reasons, which worsens the situation even more. Compulsory migration differs from voluntary migration by the fact that frequently the refugees can only return home in the event of a new armed conflict.
It seems that the term “compulsory migration” should be used more extensively in special writings since the term “forced migration” frequently does not describe the real content of the migration processes unfolding contrary to people’s will. The term “forced migration” cannot be used for political purposes since it does not reflect the essence and true causes of the spontaneous movement of human masses.
In the event of socially and economically induced migration, or migration for other reasons, migrants have the opportunity to return home; this is impossible in cases of compulsory migration, when the opportunity to return depends on external sources. The above suggests that compulsory migration can be defined as follows: “resettlement of individuals (family members or groups of people) against their will for political or ethnic considerations with the help of administrative and legal measures or through the use of force.”
The following can be described as compulsory migration:
1. moving slaves from colonies;
2. moving pows;
3. removal of civilians from occupied territories;
4. setting up reservations inside the country for political or ethnic considerations;
5. deportation—resettlement of the civilian population by administrative methods (for example, forced resettlement of the mountain people of the Caucasus, Germans, Meskhetian Turks, and others in the 1940s);
6. resettlement of the civilian population because of civilian and ethnic conflicts.
The history of mankind abounds in cases of compulsory migration, however I shall dwell here on their main causes and final results. According to different assessments, there are between at least 20 and 35 million compulsory migrants throughout the world,5 however the U.N. gives this status to a much smaller number of refugees. The dynamics of their numbers between 1975 and 2006 is shown in Table 1.
Table 1
Dynamics of the Number of Refugees in the World (million people)6
Years 1 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Number of refugees 2.4 5.7 10.5 14.9 15.8 11.7 1 12.1 12.1 1 10.6 1 9.7 9.6 8.4
The figures show that the number of refugees throughout the world is mounting; the fact that their number dropped somewhat after 1995 does not mean that the problem has been resolved. By 2000 the U.N. OHCR was spending up to $1.8 billion compared with $8.3 million in 1970. According to information for 2006, within their home countries there are 2.0 million compulsory migrants-refu-gees in Colombia; 1.2 million in Iraq; 842 thousand in Sudan; 578 thousand in Azerbaijan; 246 thou-
5 See: “Nishcheta, deti i sotsial’naia politika: put v bolee svetloe budushchee. Issledovanie polozhenia v stranakh s perekhodnoy ekonomikoy,” Regionally monitoringovy doklad, No. 3, 1995.
6 [http://www.unhcr.osg/egi.bin/texis/basies/opendoc/].
sand in Serbia and Montenegro; 234 thousand in Georgia; 183 thousand in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and 142 thousand in the Russian Federation.7
According to Russian demographer V. Mukomel, “starting in the late 1980s, six regional wars have taken place in the former Soviet territory. These were armed conflicts that involved regular troops and heavy weapons (the conflicts in Karabakh, Abkhazia, Tajikistan, South Ossetia, Transnis-tria, and Chechnia). There were also 20 smaller armed clashes that caused a loss of life among civilians (the largest of them took place in Ferghana, Osh, and between the Ossets and Ingushes), and more than 100 conflicts in which arms were not used, but which can be described as state, ethnic, confessional, or clan conflicts. The areas where regional wars, ethnic clashes, and pogroms took place were home for no less than 10 million.
“These conflicts produced about 2.4 million compulsory migrants (714 thousand in Russia; 855 thousand in Azerbaijan; 396 thousand in Armenia; and 287 thousand in Georgia). At least five million had to leave the territories of ethnopolitical and regional conflicts in haste.”8
Table 2
Number of People Who Left Places of Permanent Residence in Conflict Zones in 1991-1996 (thou.)9
Including
Territory of conflict Left places of residence (total) Migrated to far abroad Migrated to CIS countries Of them acquired the status of refugee and forced migrant Became IDP Returned to places of permanent residence
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Armenia 533 39 422 204 72 —
Azerbaijan 1,484 32 843 438 609 over 50
Georgia 653 — 371 132 282 39
Kyrgyzstan 105 32 73 1
Moldova 136 7 78 11 51 —
Russia (Chechnia) over 750 —
Russia (North Ossetia) 9 720,500 102
Tajikistan 970 88 382 222 over 500
Uzbekistan 240 52 188 4 920
Total over 4,871 250 2,357 1,021 2,234 over 1,610
7 Ibidem.
8 V. Mukomel, “Demograficheskie posledstvia etnicheskikh i regional’nykh confliktov v SNG,” Informatsionny biulleten tsentra demografii i ekologii cheloveka Instituta narodnokhoziastvennogo prognozirovania RAN “Naselenie i obshchestvo", No. 27, April 1997, p. 2.
9 Ibidem.
The Central Caucasus paid dearly for its quest for the road to independence under the conditions of the totalitarian regime that prevailed in national relations. Table 3 gives an idea of the number of migrants of these countries who, at different times, had to leave their places of residence because of combat action and shows the structure of migration.
Table 3
Age and Gender Structure of Migrants in the Central Caucasian Countries10
Georgia Armenia Azerbaijan
■ Number of Refugees (in 1995), thou. Age Structure of Migrants percent Age Structure of Population percent Number of Refugees (in 1993), thou. Age Structure of Migrants percent Age Structure of Population percent Number of Refugees (in 1994), thou. Age Structure of Migrants percent Age Structure of Population percent
Total 282.0 — — 213.7 — — 877.7 — —
Men 113.0 40.0 47.6 103.4 — 48.4 394.8 45.0 49.0
Women 169.0 60.0 53.4 110.3 — 51.6 482.9 55.0 51.0
| Age Structure |
Infants and small children (0-5) 30.5 10.8 8.3 19.7 9.2 13.6 147.1 15.8 14.3
Older children and teenagers (6-15) 59.8 21.2 16.1 31.4 14.7 17.8 205.5 23.4 20.9
Young people (16-39) 110.0 39.0 36.7 24.8 11.6 14.3 281.3 32.0 41.0
Adults (40-59) 57.0 20.2 22.1 97.0 45.4 43.1 120.3 13.7 15.2
Senior citizens (60+) 24.3 8.6 15.2 40.8 19.1 11.2 123.4 14.1 8.6
Share of refugees in society 5,3 5,7 11,9
It should be said that different sources cite widely different numbers of refugees, which makes it next to impossible to establish the exact number. Between 1988 and early 1990, Azeris were forced from Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh; in mid-1992, the conflict spread to other regions of Azerbaijan that bordered on Armenia, which caused another flow of refugees. About 900,000 Azeris, “nearly one-eighth of the population,” became forced migrants and refugees who had to leave Armenia. In
10 See: “Nishcheta, deti i sotsial’naia politika: put v bolee svetloe budushchee.”
1993, there were over 200,000 displaced persons in Armenia; later a larger part of them left for Russia, Ukraine, and America.11
In Georgia, political and later military conflicts were very specific: aggressive separatism gradually developed in the South Osset Autonomous Region and the Autonomous Republic of Abkhazia, contrary to widespread sentiments. This allowed the so-called national leaders to realize their ambitious interests. The deliberately provoked wave of nationalism and confrontation produced, as I have written above, 234,000 forced migrants-refugees.
C o n c l u s i o n
In the 21st century, the refugee problem remains one of the most painful issues in many countries of the world; it is in fact of an international nature. This means that the academic community and political circles of the world should provide clearer definitions of the terms related to the forced migration processes caused by socioeconomic and military-political factors. This will make it easier to adequately identify what should be done to settle all the problems of migrants, irrespective of the motives that caused migration, and to coordinate international and national efforts in this sphere.
' Ibid., p. 18.
Rozeta ASATIANI
D.Sc. (Econ.), professor, Tbilisi Institute of Market Economy and Law
(Tbilisi, Georgia).
GLOBALIZATION AND ECONOMIC THEORY
Abstract
This article examines the origin of economic theory, analyzes the distinctive paradigms underlying economics as a branch of science that is more concerned with the quantitative side of the market economy, and explains the similarities and differences between economics and eco-
nomic theory. In the author’s opinion, this will help to develop the economic (and not only economic) world view of the Caucasian peoples, who are facing difficult problems, and will promote a more scientific approach to the processes generated by globalization.
