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DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.18551/rjoas.2016-03.02
DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES AND TRENDS: THE CASE OF NORTHEASTERN MONTENEGRO
Goran Rajovic
International Network Center for Fundamental and Applied Research, Russian Federation & Academic Member ATINER based on Serbia, Serbia E-mail: dkgoran.rajovic@gmail.com
Jelisavka Bulatovic
College of Textile Design, Technology and Management, Belgrade, Serbia E-mail: jelisavka.bulatovic@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
This paper analyzes the contemporary demographic processes and trends in the northeastern part of Montenegro, in the case of municipalities: Berane, Petnjica, Andrijevica, Plav and Gusinje. Population analyzed area is characterized by a steady decline in relation to the dynamics of the population Montenegro. Thus in 1948 the population of the observed geospace is seemed 14.17% of the population Montenegro and in 2011 8.41%. The age structure of the population, due to migration and reducing birth rate is changed and takes on unfavorable characteristics - reduces the proportion of younger, while increasing the share of the elderly population. In both cases deranged age structure has feedback influence on the movement of population (size reproductive contingent), but also to all other population structure (size of the working population, the active population, schools compulsory contingent relationship serving a), which are essential for the development of population and economic activity in the region. Despite significant changes in all demographic structure of this part of northeastern Montenegro, maintained, has the characteristics of ethnically very heterogeneous environment. The current demographic situation and future demographic processes that have determined the legality of long-term demographic inertia, has become a limiting factor in the overall economic and social development.
KEY WORDS
Northeastern Montenegro, municipalities, demographic processes, demographic trends.
As the flows of economic and social growth had an impact on demographic trends and the total number of inhabitants, the pace of population growth and its structure according to various monuments, have a significant influence in all spheres of social and economic life. In fact, despite the modern, general technical and technological progress, population as a group of people who live and work in a particular territory, and continues to represent the most important factor, the overall socio - economic development of a country and its lower administrative - territorial units. Overall, the development of human capital plays an important role in the overall development and assessment of potential warranted territory. A key component of human development are demographic resources, which are defined as the total qualitative and quantitative, used and potential, social and biological characteristics of the population in a particular area at a particular time (Lovrick et al, ***).
In the period between 1948 and 2011 in this part of northeastern Montenegro has seen significant demographic changes that are an expression of long-term trends in total and structural composition of the population. The fact is that they clearly came to the fore in the second half of the twentieth century and that were analyzed in the geographical works of many authors. In this paper the authors of this paper discusses the major demographic changes and trends resulting in the total number of inhabitants this part of northeastern Montenegro and its components (natural movement) and its structure on the basis of census data from 2011(Rajovic and Bulatovic, 2015).
Figure 1 - Northeastern Montenegro, on example municipalities Berane, Petnjica, Andrijevica, Plav and Gusinje on the geography map of Montenegro (Source: https://sr.wikipedia.org). Labeling area
carried out by the author1
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
This work has multiple goals. First of all, the analysis of the existing literature aims to determine the number and population density of population. The next goal is to draw attention to changes the natural population movement. And finally, should point to the analysis of the structure and scope of the population. The methodology is primarily based on an analysis of the existing literature on the population the region and statistical data. From the existing literature, we used both domestic and it was published in the international literature. On this occasion of the international are apostrophized in publications: Kirk (1949), Yfantopoulos (1999), Linz and Stula (2010), Bendykowska and Cyrzan (2014). This literature consists of monographs on population, proceedings and textbooks. Were also investigated written sources on the Internet? In the scientific explanation of concepts, applied are two methods as follows: an analytical and synthetic. Analytical methods are discussed some of the dimensions of the research subject, a synthetic whole, the relations between the subject and suggested measures deriving there from.
ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
The study population, the physical characteristics such as births, deaths, natural increase, retirement age, migration..., increasingly involved and qualitative dimensions. Education and knowledge indicate compliance with modern technologies in the sense of initiative, innovation and potential ability to create and use modern knowledge. The number of population and economic strength determine the size of the internal market, and the age structure and education indicate the working age population and dependent on the state of human capital. Studying the structure of the population is an important determinant for the
1 The considered territory of northeastern Montenegro includes municipalities: Berane, Petnjica, Andrijevica, Plav and Gusinje. However, as this paper analyzes demographic trends and processes in considered geo - space related to the period from 2011, it is the time when the current territory Petnjica was part of the municipality of Berane and territories Gusinje in composition municipality Plav. Namely, Petnjica was granted municipal status in 2013, and_municipality Gusinje 2014. Thus, in the text of today's municipal territory Petnjica viewed within the municipality of Berane, and municipalities in Gusinje of the municipality of Plav.
strategy development, and for assessing the potential of mechanical movement of the population in the area (Bogunovic, 2006).
According to Toosssi (2006), Yyers and Shi (2007) the population of the EU and with a positive net migration, closer in the last two decades zero rate of growth with a strong pessimistic outlook for future developments. As a result of the reduction in fertility, it is assumed that the growth rate of the world's population will fall from 1.35% a year in 1995 -2000 on 0.47% per annum in the period 2045 - 2050, which will have a significant impact on reducing the working age population. In fact, by 2050, the baby-boom generation will leave the labor force, and it is this age cohort was the main driver of the increase in the workforce in the period after the Second World War. Demographic projections suggest that in the coming decades be reduced population and labor force in China.
The impact of demographic variables on the quality of life testing in numerous studies, which showed different patterns of association in different cultures Andrews and Withey,1976; Watson et al, 1988; 1985; Van Oudenhoven and Willemsen, 1989; Wqaston and Klark, 1992; Ruff et al, 1999; Wahl et al, 2004; Lima and Novo, 2006. Society may differ according to the expectations and standards relating to the standard of living and level of satisfaction and happiness, as well as to the objective conditions of life that are associated with certain demographic characteristics(Lucev and Tadinac, 2008).
In recent decades intensifies the reduction of the population of northeastern Montenegro, so that with the deterioration of the age structure points to the continuation of unfavorable trends. If sleep disorders in the population development indicate disorders, for example in economic development (which is very often the case)(see Rajovic, 2011; Rajovic and Bulatovic, 2012; Rajovic and Bulatovic, 2012; Rajovic and Bulatovic, 2012; Rajovic and Bulatovic, 2013; Rajovic and Bulatovic, 2013; Rajovic and Bulatovic, 2013; Rajovic and Bulatovic, 2013; Rajovic and Bulatovic, 2013; Rajovic and Bulatovic, 2015; Rajovic and Bulatovic, 2015; Rajovic and Bulatovic, 2015; Rajovic and Bulatovic, 2015), then the create strong preconditions in the destabilization of the population and overall development.
Table 1 - Comparative population trends from 1948 to 2011
Geo - space 1948 2011
Andrijevica 10.067 5.071
Berane 27.646 33.970
Plav 15.674 13.108
Region 53.384 52.149
Source: Statistical Office of Montenegro - Monstat, Census of Population and Housing 2011, Communication No.83, Podgorica, 2011 (calculation of data by the authors).
The population of the northeastern Montenegro is characterized by a steady decline in relation to the dynamics of the population. Thus, in 1948 the population of the region seemed 14.17 % of the population Montenegro and in 2011 8.41 %. The percentage increase in the population of Montenegro amounted to 1948 - 2011 39.16 %. However, some parts of Montenegro, including this part of northeastern Montenegro, indicate considerable deviations from the indicated population dynamics. Thus, the numerical increase in the population amounted in the period 1948 - 2011, 1.235 inhabitants, but with a declining trend in the municipality of Andrijevica (10.067-5.071) and municipality Plav (15.674-13.108). The reasons for the depopulation in these municipalities are in a negative natural increase, primarily in the large emigration population from the economically underdeveloped communities. On the other hand, in the period 1948 - 2011 intensified the population in the municipality of Berane with 27.646 on 33.970 inhabitants. Observing at the changes in the movement of the total population in Northeastern Montenegro by municipalities, we can conclude that the Municipality of Berane has increased steadily in population, while municipalities Andrijevica and Plav had a continuing decline in the overall population trends.
The overall population density is one of the basic demographic characteristics, indicating the spatial distribution of the population. At the observed territory, it ranges from 18.0 in/km2 (municipality Andrijevica), 27.0 in/km2 (Plav) to 47.4 in/km2 (Berane). With
certainty it can be argued that such a distribution of the population has its causes in the economic underdevelopment, but also adverse effects on the natural growth and population structure which will show the following analysis.
Table 2 - Areas, average density population and the number of settlements
Geo - space Area (km2) Average population density (in/km2) Number of settlements
Andrijevica 283 18.0 24
Berane 717 47.4 66
Plav 486 27.0 23
Region 1.486 44.9 113
Source: Statistical Office of Montenegro - Monstat, Census of Population and Housing 2011, Communication No.83, Podgorica, 2011 (calculation of data by the authors).
On the territory of northeastern Montenegro in the five municipalities have 113 settlements. The largest number of settlements have the most spacious municipalities (Berane - 66), while the smallest settlements have municipalities that are spread over a smaller surface (Andrijevica - 24, Plav - 23). General data presented in this part of Montenegro, can serve as a good framework to display the size of the selected model in the context of global events. According to data of the Statistical Office of Montenegro - Monstat (2011) on the territory of Northeastern Montenegro in urban settlements live 17.511 inhabitants, while the population in rural settlements is estimated at 34.638. Review by municipalities would look like this: In the municipality of Andrijevica - in the urban settlement lives 1,048 residents or 20.67%, in rural - 4.023 or 79.33%; in the municipality of Berane - in urban settlements live 11.073 inhabitants or 32.60%, in rural - 22.897 or 67.40%; in the municipality Plav - in the urban settlement lives 5.390 residents or 41.12%, in rural - 7.718 or 58.88%. The investigated geo-pace is in the group not developed regions, where due to dispersion urban - height structure has been a significant disproportion between the size and growth trends municipalities (Berane, Petnjica, Andrijevica, Plav and Gusinje) and other settlements in the studied area. As a scattered settlements, structured compacted fragments (hamlets), remote and scattered throughout the territory of the corresponding region, this part of Montenegro the an interesting and distinctive way, fits in a systematic picture of the village of Montenegro and Serbia. "Because it takes such an environment supplemented by new and more effective activities, thus achieving a more balanced economic development at the country level, which is one of the are primary objectives of local economic development. Positive examples of local and regional development, with well-defined strategy, have been reported in the areas of Baden Werttenberg in Germany, Lorraine in France, Westphalia in the UK, Veneto, Friuli in Italy and our neighboring Slovenia. This concept of development is practical, since it includes all those who want to cooperate, does not cost much and gives results, which is of particular importance for the underdeveloped countries" (Vojnovic et al, 2009).
Table 3 - Population growth for 2011
Geo - space Birth rate Mortality rate Natural increase rate
Andrijevica 9.5 15.0 -5.5
Berane 11.4 10.5 0.9
Plav 9.9 9.3 0.6
Source: Statistical Office of Montenegro - Monstat, data by municipalities for the year 2011, Communication No.102, Podgorica, 2011 (calculation of data by the authors).
Viewed separately, by municipality, we can determine the legality of the individual that is the negative natural population growth is expressed in small and underdeveloped municipalities (Andrijevica). Spatial large municipalities (Berane) have positive population growth, except the municipalities of Plav, which are spatially smaller but also have positive population growth, because in them the majority of the population are Muslim - Bosniak
population whose birth rate more than with other ethnic groups (Medojevic and Milosavljevic, 2003). Municipality of Berane participates are with 11.4 birth rate, while its share in the mortality rate of 10.5. According to Bureau of Statistics of Montenegro - Monstat (2014) in the first nine months of 2014 concluded a total of 211 marriages, while in the same period, 14 divorced marriages. Most marriages concluded in the municipality of Berane - 127, followed by Plav - 43, Andrijevica - 22 and -19 Petnjica. Divorces in this period, most were in the municipality of Berane - 10. While the lowest number of divorces has municipalities Petnjica -1, Plav - 3, while in the municipality of Andrijevica in the first nine months of 2014 were divorces.
The age structure of the population of the northeastern Montenegro, due to migration and reducing the birth rate is changed and takes on unfavorable characteristics - reduces the proportion of younger, while increasing the share of the elderly population (see Rajovic, 2009; Rajovic and Bulatovic, 2013). The age structure of the population, due to migration and reducing birth rate is changed and takes on unfavorable characteristics - reduces the proportion of younger, while increasing the share of the elderly population. In both cases deranged age structure has feedback influence on the movement of population (size reproductive contingent), but also to all other population structure (size of the working population, the active population, schools compulsory contingent relationship serving), which are essential for the development of population and economic activity in the region (see Rajovic, 2009).
Table 4 - Population age structure
Geo - space 0-19 % 20-59 % 60 and more %
Andrijevica 1.266 25.0 2.659 52.4 1.146 22.6
Berane 9.961 29.4 17.710 52.3 6.199 18.3
Plav 4.026 30.7 6.736 51.4 2.346 17.9
Region 15.253 100 27.105 100 9.691 100
Source: Statistical Office of Montenegro - Monstat, Census of Population and Housing 2011, Communication No. 117, Podgorica, 2011 (calculation of data by the authors).
Middle-aged population dominates in the northeastern part of Montenegro with 27.105 inhabitants (52.0%). The contingent of young people (0 - 19 years) counts 15.253 (29.2%) of the population living on the concerned territory. The lowest representation in the age structure seems contingent old population (60 and over) with 9,691 inhabitants (18.6%) of the total population. Ageing index represents the ratio of the population aged 60 and over, according to population under 20 years. If its value is less than 0.40 the population is still young, and if it is greater than 0.40 populations shows signs of aging. The aging index population northeastern Montenegro in 2011 amounted to 0.63. Thus, the population of the region is in the process of demographic aging, manifested increase in the percentage of aged and older adult at the expense of the young. Relationship between the big age groups in most municipalities is identical to the relative age group in the entire region (the largest is the middle-aged population, followed by the young and the end is at least numerically the aging population) (Table 4).
Our research evidence based on similar studies Nejasmic and Toskic (2013), indicates that demographic aging is significantly marked the development of northeastern Montenegro's population over the last five decades. In the last analyzed period (2003 - 2011) on the part of the clearance level of demographic aging ("deep age "). In Montenegro, she performed mature post transition phase in the changes in age structure; marked by a contraction of the young population and the expansion of old, while reducing the number and proportion of working age population. Such a balance among large age groups has many adverse consequences, especially come to the fore in the circumstances of underdevelopment and economic crisis. Analysis of future changes shows that in the next period to continue rapidly unfavorable demographic trends. It will continue to aging is interacting with the total depopulation. There will be a further increase in the imbalance in the proportion of larger age groups; it is up to more pronounced inversion age "pyramid". This
will lead to adverse changes in the components of natural population growth, as will the legality of demographic inertia affect the continued deterioration of the age structure of the population, or its aging. In order to slow down the aging process of the population of northeastern Montenegro and mitigate its consequences, it is necessary to increase the birth rate, which would encourage the gradual rejuvenation of the population. So should press ahead with the implementation of an active policy of birth as the teaching part of the general development policy. The second group of measures relates to immigration, and the third to increase youth employment in order to prevent any more numerous emigrations.
Table 5 - Gender structure of population
Geo - space Male % Femme % Total
Andrijevica 2.614 51,5 2.457 48.5 5.071
Berane 17.087 50.3 16.883 49.7 33.970
Plav 6.664 50.8 6.444 49.2 13.108
Region 26.365 100 25.784 100 52.149
Source: Statistical Office of Montenegro - Monstat, Census of Population and Housing 2011, Communication No.83, Podgorica, 2011(calculation of data by the authors).
In the area northeast of Montenegro live 52.149 inhabitants, 26.365 of them (50.55%) were male, while 25,784 (49.45%) women. We see that the relationship between men and women in this area almost identical, which is extremely important during the fertile period as an even chance of having both men and women to find a partner for marriage. In all the municipalities of the greater are number of men than women (Andrijevica 2.614 - 2.457; Berane 17.087 - 16.883; Plav 6.664 - 6.444).
The rate of masculinity shows the number of men per 1.000 women. According to the census of 2011, the rate of masculinity in the region amounted to 1022.5%. The rate of femininity shows the number of women per 1.000 men and was in the analyzed period, 997.9. This may be due to male emigration or immigration of female population. Given, the still narrow framework of economic development, employment of female labor force is going far more slowly than men's, because of the influence of the structure of economic activity, which no longer requires male labor force. Taking for example, this part of northeastern Montenegro there are favorable conditions for the development of textile industry and handicrafts, which would be the most engaged female workforce, this production can significantly affect the increase in employment of women. The engagement of the female labor force in the economy, it would have more supplementary character that would ensure existential security of women in society and in the family (Rajovic and Bulatovic, 2013).
Within the factors that may affect the development of the population, educational characteristics have an important place. Perceiving the educational characteristics of the population, in addition to the independent value that this factor has, may indicate the effects it has on economic development (Rajovic and Rajovic, 2010). According to most of the findings from the literature educational level was positively associated with pleasure and happiness (Ruff et al, 1999; Kling and Wing, 1999; Nezlek, 2000; Markus et al, 2004; Ryan and Huta, 2009) which is logical given that a higher level of education an individual provides a greater range of opportunities and resources available.
Table 6 - Illiterate population aged 10 years and over
Geo - space Total Illiterate %
Andrijevica 4.513 70 1.6
Berane 29.352 539 1.8
Plav 11.287 401 3.6
Region 45.152 1.010 100
Source: Statistical Office of Montenegro - Monstat, Census of Population and Housing 2011, Communication No.83, Podgorica, 2011 (calculation of data by the authors).
Literacy is one of the basic indicators of the educational structure of the population. According to the results of the census of 2011, there were in the municipality of Berane amounted to 539 or 1.8 %, the municipality of Andrijevica 70 or 1.6% and municipality Plav 401 or 3.6 % of the illiterate population, aged over 15 years compared to the total illiterate population in the concerned area. It should be noted that education was covered, mostly men, while female literacy of the population individually.
Table 7 - Structure of the population by educational attainment
Geo - space No education % Primary education % Secondary education % College education % University education %
Andrijevica 104 8.0 1.227 10.2 2.057 10.9 217 12.6 172 6.3
Berane 745 57.0 7.594 63.4 12.652 67.3 1.129 65.6 1.970 72.4
Plav 457 35.0 3.160 26.4 4.095 21.8 376 21.8 580 21.3
Region 1.306 100 11.981 100 18.804 100 1.722 100 2.722 100
Source: Statistical Office of Montenegro - Monstat, Census of Population and Housing 2011, Communication No.83, Podgorica, 2011(calculation of data by the authors).
Level of education is another important indicator of the educational structure of the population. Although the obvious positive changes in the region though formal education is not at a high enough level. According to the census of 2011, without any education were 1.306, with primary school education was 11.981, with secondary education 18.804, with college education 1.772 and university 2.722 of the population aged 1o and over. This educational structure of the population is unfavorable for any modernization of the economy in the region. Its alleviation and overcoming a prerequisite are for the revitalization and sustainable development. Based on these data, it cannot be judged on the low interest of the population of this part of Montenegro, to be educated or to educate their children. The cause of the relatively small number of people with college and university education lies certainly in poor material resources, but also in the fact that many after completing secondary education are leaving the region due to the inability to get a job in him (Rajovic,2011; Rajovic,2015).
According to the census of 2011 in this part of northeastern Montenegro have 16.050 active populations. Inactive population has a total of 25.062, while in the group of the population according to economic activity "others" has 89 of the total population.
Table 8 - Population by economic activity
Geo - space Active population % Inactive population % Others % Total
Andrijevica 1.437 28.33 2.729 53.8 5 0.1 5.071
Berane 10.817 31.8 15.965 47.0 45 0.1 33.970
Plav 3.796 28.9 6.368 48.6 39 0.2 13.108
Region 16.050 100 25.062 100 89 100 52.149
Source: Statistical Office of Montenegro - Monstat, Census of Population and Housing 2011, Communication No.83, Podgorica, 2011(calculation of data by the authors).
The active population is the largest in the municipality of Berane (31.8% of the total active population of the municipality). Inactive population is the largest in the municipality of Andrijevica (53.8% of the total population of the municipality), whereas in Plav number of this population is 48.6%. According to data of the Statistical Office of Montenegro - Monstat (2014), the employment rate ranges from 19% municipality Andrijevica and Plav, to 24% in the municipality of Berane. On the other side, the unemployment rate is the highest in the municipality of Plav is 50%, then 43% of the municipality of Andrijevica and Berane 41%. The structure is the inactive population in the municipality of Andrijevica on housewives and "other" 51%, to pensioners and other persons with income from assets and 32% of the children, pupils and students aged 15 years and over) by 17% compared on total inactive
population. In the municipality of Berane structure of the inactive population looks like this: housewives and "other" 48% of pensioners and other persons with an income of 32% of assets; children, pupils and students (age 15 and above) 19%; in the municipality Plav housewives and "other" accounted for 60% in total inactive population, pensioners and other persons with income from property accounts for 22%; while children, students (15 and over) account for 18% of the inactive population.
According to Medojevic and Milosavljevic (2003) most of the population is employed in the larger economic center of Berane. At least are employees in small and municipalities without a strong economy Andrijevica and Plav. The average salary in the analyzed area of Montenegro is 371 euro. At least earnings are residents in poorer municipalities and municipalities in which the economy is in bad shape Plav (332 €), Andrijevica (€ 336). The problem of unemployment and employment is one of the most pressing socio-economic problems of the modern world. One of the reasons for this phenomenon lies in the fact that the labor market according to Radovanovic and Maksimovic (2010) has its own specific differences on the market of goods and capital, and may rightly say that this market is imperfect. Therefore, in the management regional development policy, both at EU level and in the framework of a large number of individual countries, special importance is given to finding adequate mechanisms and instruments that will contribute to the better functioning of labor markets, and thus to a more balanced regional development. The labor market in Montenegro also characterized by sharp differences in is almost all levels of territorial belonging. The differences are especially pronounced among rural than in urban areas, south and central regions compared to the north, the concentration of labor resources both in scope and structure, as well as quality in large urban centers compared to other areas. The lack of timely and adequate measures of regional policy in the labor market has resulted in that the peripheral areas remained virtually without human resources who possess entrepreneurial initiative and the appropriate qualifications and other characteristics required by modern industrial mode of production, which may be carriers of their rapid development and progress in the future.
At this point it is important to point out the research Stojiljkovic (2010) that a number of problems during the nineties characterized the economy of Montenegro, has reduced the number of the employed population. Nineties the last century - crisis, sanctions, wars and the informal sector have influenced the radical changes in the functioning of the state. At the beginning of the new millennium, there has been a transition, which included privatization and big layoffs, which only worsened the ratio of the number of employees, which was getting smaller, and the number of pensioners, whose number is ever increasing. Progressive reduction of employees and pensioners increase significantly impedes the functioning of the pension system, based on the transfer of contributions to pensions. The deficit incurred as a consequence of its available budget funds and increase the number of pensioners when outnumber the baby boomers who were employed for a long time become entitled to a pension will only intensify the problem. Stojiljkovic (2010) further notes lest population projections show clearly that the numerically larger baby boom generation affect "outflows" the significant size of the working age population after 2013, and that this generation is not fiction but actually significantly more numerous groups. Informing the public, as well as the specific preparation of this sudden transition is necessary, in order to avoid dramatic consequences. The problem of a large number of pensioners to be addressed by is integrating measures. A low fertility rate, which is actually the cause of increasing the share of pensioners in the total population also not be considered in isolation, but must be an awareness of a cause-and-effect relationship between these phenomena.
In each of the national community it is very important what kind of differences there are in the demographic structure of the population of some national communities."Namely, examination of demographic characteristics in different ethnic groups, especially if it includes people of various nationalities within the same country or is done with the nationalities living in the same territory cohabitation, represents special interest because it allows consideration of differences in demographic structures and trends, the factors to which they are influenced
and the tendency continued existence, mitigate or increase the differences in demographic characteristics between different nationalities (Sentic and Breznik,1965).
According to the results of the 2011 census this part of northeastern Montenegro is ethnically heterogeneous territory. The number of Serbs in the total population the observed geo -space is 19.827 inhabitants. The largest ethnic group after the Serbs is Bosniaks 12.824 inhabitants, after which followed 11.306 residents Montenegrins, Muslims, 2.691 inhabitants, while the Albanians were represented with 2.546 inhabitants.
2
Table 9 - Ethnic structure of the population
Geo-space Serbs % Montenegrins % Bosnians % Muslims % Albanians %
Andrijevica 3.137 61.8 1.646 32.4 - - 7 0,1 1 -
Berane 14.592 42.9 8.838 26.0 6.021 17.7 1.957 5.7 70 0.2
Plav 2.098 16.0 822 6.3 6.803 51.9 727 5.5 2.475 18.8
Region 19.827 100 11.306 100 12.824 100 2.691 100 2.546 100
Source: Statistical Office of Montenegro - MONSTAT, Census of Population and Housing 2011, Communication No.83, Podgorica, 2011 (calculation of data by the authors).
The Serbian population is most numerous in the municipalities Andrijevica (61.8% of the total population of the municipality) and Berane (42.9%). Montenegrins majority of the population is in the municipality of Berane (26.0%), Andrijevica (32.4%). Bosniak population majority does in municipality Plav (51.9% of the total population). In addition to municipalities blue Bosniaks are in serious numbers represented in the municipality of Berane (17.7%). Muslims do not make up the majority in any municipality, but are present in Berane (5.7%), Plav (5.5%) and Andrijevica (0.1%). As Muslims and Albanians do not constitute the majority in any municipality, but most of them has to municipality Plav (18.8%).
3
Table 10 - Confessional structure of the population
Geo -space Orthodoxy % Islam % Catholicity % Muslim % I do not want to comment %
Andrijevica 4.909 96.81 - - 6 0.12 8 0.16 80 1.58
Berane 23.287 68.55 8.224 24.21 81 0.24 1.278 3.76 567 1.67
Plav 2.815 21.48 9.533 72.73 124 0.95 513 3.91 63 0.48
Region 31.011 100 17.757 100 211 100 1.799 100 710 100
Source: Statistical Office of Montenegro - Monstat, Census of Population and Housing 2011, Communication No.83, Podgorica, 2011 (calculation of data by the authors).
The confessional structure in this part of northeastern of Montenegro the general trend that is occurring and the ethnic are composition of the population. Census 2011 shows that in the analyzed territory lived 31.011 members of the Orthodox religion, followed by the 17,757 members of the Islamic religion, 513 members of the Muslim religion, while the members of the Catholic 211, while 710 residents did not want to comment. Members of the Orthodox are
2 According to the census in 2011 pleaded in the municipality of Andrijevica: Croats - 2 (0,04 %), Bosnian - 1(0.02 %), Bosniaks / Muslims -0, Montenegrin / Muslim - 0, Montenegrins / Serbs - 17 (0,34 %), Egyptians - 0, Gorani - 0, Italians - 0, Yugoslavs -5 (0,10 %), Hungarians - 0 , Macedonians -2(0,04%), Muslims /Bosnians - 0, Muslims/Montenegrins - 3 (0,06 %), Germans -0, Roma - 0, Russians - 2(0,04 %), Slovenians - 1 (0,02 %), Serbs /Montenegrins - 39 (0,77%), Turks - 0, Other - 8(1,16%), Regional affiliation - 5(0,10 %), I do not want to comment 195(3,85 %). Municipality of Berane: Croats - 42(0,12 %), Bosnian -5 (0.01 %), Bosniaks/Muslims - 28 (0,08%),, Montenegrin/Muslim - 21 (0,06 %), Montenegrins/ Serbs - 43 (0,13 %), Egyptians
- 170 (0,50 %), Gorani-18 (0,05%), Italians - 0, Yugoslavs - 27(0,08 %),- Hungarians- 1(0,00%), Macedonians - 26 (0,08%), Muslims/Bosnians-11(0,03%), Muslims/Montenegrins - 27 (0,08%), Germans - 4(0,01%), Romia- 531 (1,56%), Russians - 6 (0,02), Slovenians - 5 (0,01%), Serbs / Montenegrins-179 (0,53%), Turks - 2 (0,01%), Other - 93 (0,27%), Regional affiliation -3(0,01%), I do not want to comment - 1.250(3,68%). Municipality of Plav: Croats - 5 (0,04 %), Bosnian - 5 (0.04%), Bosniaks / Muslims - 0, - Montenegrin / Muslim- 0, Montenegrins / Serbs - 2 (0,02 %), Egyptians - 0, Gorani - 10 (0,08 %), Italians - 0, Yugoslavs - 2(0,02%), Hungarians - 0, Macedonians - 0, Muslims /Bosnians - 3(0,02%), Muslims / Montenegrins - 1(0,01%), Germans - 1(0,01%), Roma - 0, Russians - 1(0,01%), Slovenians - 0, Serbs/Montenegrins - 7(0,05 %),Turks - 5(0,04 %),Other
- 32(0,24 %),-Regional affiliation -2(0,02%), I do not want to comment - 107(0,82%).
3 On the municipality of Andrijevica pleaded even as: Adventist - 4(0.08%), Agnostic - 0, Atheist - 5(0.10%), Buddhist -0, Christians - 2 (0.04%), Jehovah vitness - 0, Protestants - 0 and other religion - 57(1.12%). Municipality of Berane: Adventist -26 (0.08%), Agnostic -1, Atheist - 100(0.29%), Buddhist - 3(0.01%), Christians - 39(0.11%), Jehovah vitness - 4(0.01%), Protestants - 0 and other religion - 369(1.06%). Municipality of Plav: Adventist -17(0.13%), Agnostic - 1(0.015), Atheist -6(0.05%), Buddhist - 0, Christians - 9(0.07%), Jehovah vitness - 0, Protestants - 0 and other religion - 27(0.21%)
the largest in the municipalities Andrijevica (96.81% of the total population of the municipality) and Berane (68.55%). Members of the Islamic religion make the majority in the municipality of Plav (72.73%)."This drastic difference in the percentage share of certain religions in the total population is caused by differences in the rates of natural increase among the members of Islamic and Orthodox faiths. High rates of population growth in the Muslim population, low among the members of other communities, primarily in Serbian, which is present and prominent emigration (Bokovic, 2003). Our research evidence based on similar studies Rudic and Stepic (1993) indicates that this is an area of vital geostrategic importance for Montenegro and should pay more attention to building a spirit of tolerance and coexistence of different ethnic communities. In fact, the overall development of the region Polimlje-Ibar would have to be viewed through the prism of a strong integrated socioeconomic and cultural development which would constitute a guarantee of prosperity Serbian, Montenegrin, Bosnaik, Muslim, ethnic Albanian population in these areas.
Table 11 - Population by marital status4
Geo -space Total Not married / unmarried % Married % Divorced % Widow / widower %
Andrijevica 4.168 1.437 34.5 2.120 50.8 115 2.8 490 11.8
Berane 26.827 8.745 32.6 14.622 54.4 749 2.8 2.463 9.9
Plav 10.203 3.395 33.3 5.562 54.5 186 1.8 1.001 9.8
Region 41.198 13.577 100 22.304 100 1.050 100 3.954 100
Source: Statistical Office of Montenegro - Monstat, Census of Population and Housing 2011, Communication No.141, Podgorica, 2011 (calculation of data by the authors)
Data on marital status are presented for the population aged 15 and over and refer to the legal marital status at the time of the census. Another very worrying fact is that the number of single persons in the territory of the region. According to the National Statistical Office of Montenegro (2011) in the municipality of Andrijevica a total of are bachelors/unmarried 1.437, municipality of Berane 8.435, municipality Plav 3.395. The biggest numbers of people who not get married mainly in mountainous rural settlements of the region in which people generally have no fixed income. By reducing the number of single significantly enhances the demographics of the entire analyzed territory. Natural movement of population cannot be successfully explained beyond existing social and economic conditions in which the population is observed.
According to data of the Statistical Office of Montenegro - Monstat (2011) in the municipality of Andrijevica, a total of married 2.120, the municipality Berane 14.622, the municipalities Plav 5.562. According to Valdevit (2003) in the highly developed industrialized countries of the West married women have lower activity rates than the unmarried. Widows and divorced have lower activity rates than the unmarried, but still significantly higher than married women and that if viewed at the same age groups. When it comes to choosing between employment outside the home and raising children, it is always a personal choice women, but it is a very important value composition, because if a professional career is considered more important, the Balkan region is mostly so, many women choose to work outside the home. The woman is necessary to create conditions for adequate choice, because the problems faced by the family in the upbringing and education of children are neither small nor socially insignificant. Mother after children enter the workforce accepting rather shorter time jobs, which allows them to better reconcile family and professional life. The share of divorced in the municipality of Andrijevica is 2.8%, widow / widower 11.8%, no response has them 0.1%, in the municipality of Berane participation of divorced was 2.8%, widow / widower 9.9 % no answer 0.3%, while in the municipality of Plav participation of divorced is 1.8%, widow/widower 9.8%, no response is 0.6% of the population aged 15 and over.
4 No answer in the municipality of Andrijevica was total - 6, or 0.1%, in the municipality of Berane - 68 or 0.3% and in the municipality of Plav - 59 or 0.6% of the population.
Table 12 - Families by number of members
Geo-space Total With two members 3 to 5 members 6 or more members
Andrijevica 1.338 467 805 66
Berane 8.965 2.812 5.601 552
Plav 3.243 990 1.869 384
Region 13.546 4.269 8.275 1.002
Source: Statistical Office of Montenegro - Monstat, Census of Population and Housing 2011, Communication No.328, Podgorica, 2011 (calculation of data by the authors).
According to data of the Statistical Office of Montenegro (2011) in the municipality of Andrijevica a total of 1.338 are families, Berane 8.965, Plav 3.243. In addition to reducing the number of children in the family, more and more so-called no complete families, i.e. single -parent families. Most do not complete families are mainly held by women. It can be seen in Table 12 that the number of families with one member in this part of northeastern Montenegro amounted to 4.269, with 3 to 5 members 8.275, with 6 or more members is 1.002. These trends certainly affect economic activity and the problems associated with raising children, which cannot be only a problem of the individual but the whole community.
Intensive social development of Montenegro after the Second World War, primarily driven by cause and associated processes of industrialization and urbanization has resulted in a number of structural changes at all social levels. According to Bordevic (2008) as part of these changes, there has been a radical change, as functions, and kinship organization of the household. The process of transition of households was necessary and legitimate in the circumstances of contemporary life. However, depending on the degree of social development, but also from the inherited customs and norms, different were the pace of change, and, accordingly, the achieved level of transition in certain areas. Compared to the developed countries of Europe, in Montenegro this process started much later, but the changes were so intense, with great territorial diversity. In the area of Montenegrin households are now fragmented and at an average population size similar to the European form, while on the territory of this part of northeastern Montenegro still represented multigenerational family community.
Table 13 - Number of households and dwellings
Geo - space Number households % Number dwellings %
Andrijevica 1.666 11.1 3.462 15.4
Berane 9.764 65.0 13.566 60.4
Plav 3.601 23.9 5.432 24.2
Region 15.031 100 22.460 100
Source: Statistical Office of Montenegro - Monstat, Census of Population and Housing 2011, Communication No.53 and 248, Podgorica, 2011 (calculation of data by the authors).
The role of households survived in modern conditions, as households are multiplied into numerous small units (for example, binuclear families). If, from the modern era, the execution of the protective function of the family in substantially transferred to social institutions (institutions that provide health care, social care institutions, pension funds...), some forms of protection that families in modern society provides to its members are very important (involvement of parents in terms of raising and child care, family support and solidarity, economic security, global "paid" care chains... (Vilic, 2013). According to data of the Statistical Office of Montenegro - Monstat (2011) on the territory of this part of northeastern Montenegro is total 15.031 households, i.e., the total number of dwellings was 22.460. Observed by municipalities: Andrijevica 1.666 - 3.462, Berane 9.764-13.566, Plav was 3.601- 5.432. The average household in this part of northeastern Montenegro has 3.5 members.
Montenegro is in the past half century has experienced a number of radical changes in all fields of social life. Periods of development and periods of great economic are political and social crisis. All these historical changes affected the everyday life of our households which
also had its ups and downs. Under the influence of numerous improving, but also destabilizing factors in the observed period, households have gradually changed their structure and population size. The changes, however, are not equal effect throughout the territory of Montenegro. Uneven pace of socio - economic development, different cultural and historical past, as well as demographic transition, influenced the formation of large regional differences in the average size of households in Montenegro (Bordevic, 2008).
INSTEAD OF A CONCLUSION
Our research evidence based on similar studies, instead of conclusions indicates the following:
1. The trend of extending life expectancy and lower fertility rates in developed countries over the past decades have significantly changed the demographic structure of the population and increase the share of persons aged 65 and over compared to earlier periods. Similar tendencies of demographic changes can be observed in Montenegro, as well as countries in its environment. Its latest report on population aging, The European Commission, based on projections of demographic changes in the period 2010 - 2060, presented the expected significant reduction in the population aged 15 - 64 in the European Union, followed by almost doubling the old population of 87 million (2010) to 150 million (2050) and 152.7 million (2060). As the effect of these demographic tendencies, demographic dependency ratio of the elderly population (the number aged 65 and over per 100 inhabitants aged 15 - 64 years) will be used for half a century is likely to double, from 26 (2010) to 52.5 (2060). Projections for Montenegro point to a significant increase in the old population (65 and over), from 12.5% in 2005 to 21.2% in 2050 in the medium-fertility variant (Zdravkovic et al,2012),
2. It can be determined northeastern Montenegro in the case of municipalities Berane, Petnjica, Andrijevica, Plav and Gusinje has migratory features that are lacking greater economic centers that managed to weaken otherwise strong influence pinch factors and so reduce exodus from their narrower or wider gravitational areas. The main characteristic of the exodus of the rural-urban direction of population movements or migrations for temporary work abroad (see Rajovic, 2011; Rajovic, 2013; Rajovic, 2014; Rajovic, 2014; Rajovic and Bulatovic, 2015). Demographic effects of migration are numerous and interrelated. Changes that occur in the population caused by changes in the natural dynamics and structure of the population. They can turn a long-term impact on the overall social conditions, both in emigration and in immigrant areas. Therefore, in addition to demographic conditions changed economic and social conditions, and this causes various problems. If we take the population as a biological potential of the workforce, notes that there is change in the economic activity of the population, to the transition of population from agricultural to non-agricultural activities and a number of other changes. Changes in relation to the labor market, which has consequences in social issues and wider. All observed data indicate the complexity of the demographic phenomena and their importance in society and, therefore, the need for scientific research, migration (Pobric, 2002),
3. The labor market in Montenegro is burdened by numerous weaknesses, which must be rectified. The labor supply is large, as shown by the high rate of unemployment. On the other hand, the demand for labor is increasing. This should result in a fall in the unemployment rate. However, this does not happen, because there is a great mismatch between supply and demand of labor, which is likely, in addition to the insufficient level of economic activity, the biggest problem for a significant reduction in unemployment. Before the labor market of Montenegro, there are many challenges. In this regard, special attention should be paid to the impact of free trade, foreign direct investment, transfer of new technologies and the free movement of people, capital and goods, to apply to the domestic labor market (Sukovic, 2009). The first and key issue to strengthen the performance, not only the labor market but also the national economy as a whole, is to improve the labor supply in terms of enriching the knowledge of how the unemployed, and employees, which of course includes a significant investment in human capital. States should focus on maximum
encourage new investment, which in the modern era, and in recent decades the most profitable. In our situation, they are imperative especially because of severe erosion of human capital the last two years. Investments in human capital the fastest time as to increase employment and to reduce poverty(Sukovic,2009),
4. Comprehensive reform of the social security system would open a space for young people entering the labor market which would in itself lead to improvement of their social and material position and more frequent decision to found a family. Also, the reform of the university system that would allow an even distribution of academically trained by branches of the economy. And of course, investment in infrastructure and attracting foreign investments in rural areas would lead to a further slowdown in internal migration and the degradation potential of the Montenegrin interior,
5. The analysis of the basic functions of the family, or the analysis of the changes that have occurred in their intended domain, leads to the conclusion that this social group and could be considered as a primary place of origin and development of biological functions that transform an individual into a social being. Each of these functions is to a large extent experienced changes. Changes in sexual behavior of adults in modern society, the separation of the sexual function of reproduction, distribution premarital life, affective relationship between spouses and between parents and children, changing the relationship of parents to children, the birth of a small number of children, willing infertility, creating new circuits of kinship relations, moving age when the first child is born..., indicates the fundamental changes in biological - sexual (reproductive) and emotional function of the family. When it comes to the economic function of the family (household), also can be seen numerous changes (women's employment, the performance of the income of both spouses work - change the model of a family breadwinner model in two breadwinner, households where the only employed women...), as well as factors that impede/prevent its realization in contemporary society (unemployment, poverty, stagnation in the mechanisms of social protection...)(Vilic,2013).
Letting the spontaneous flow of current demographic phenomena and processes increasingly sharpens not only an economic but also a social crisis, the crisis of the family and the general crisis of life in Montenegro. Urgent turnaround, primarily to the knowledge of the real demographic situation and its economic, social, health and other consequences for the life of the people, the inevitable assumption of overall development. Because the population is an important factor of development, component production is the development potential of the country, not just a consumer. The current demographic are situation and future demographic processes that have determined the legality of long-term demographic inertia but become limiting factor in the overall economic and social development (Rajovic and Bulatovic,2015).
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